Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

I do want to add they were 1500m higher than with Gustav. But I think the NHC made the correct call.

Sorry, didn't notice that.

[PhillyWX]

I do want to add they were 1500m higher than with Gustav. But I think the NHC made the correct call.

I agree with you. We're arguing over semantics. It will likely develop unless something changes that the models are not picking up on at the moment. Whether it's tropical or subtropical now or tonight is not a big deal, IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Latest and most likely last visible until tomorrow.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[LarryWx]

It appears to have stalled on latest satellite loops.

The furthest east point remains very important. Personally, I'd like to see a couple more hours of looping vis. photos before I can be confident this has actually stalled. The floater currently goes through 19:45 Z. Up until about 18:45 Z, it was still moving ENE at a decent clip per my eyes. Since then, it appears to have possibly slowed or stopped, but I'm not yet sure. Regardless, it is already as far east as ~70.3 W, which itself is a good bit further east than the furthest east on almost all 12Z global model runs outside of the GFS and GFDL. IF (still a big if imho) it has reached its furthest east position, then the 12Z GFS's furthest east point of 70.0 W will look excellent though the GFDL's 69.3 W would be too far east.

After looking through three additional photos, it looks to me like it has still not stopped moving ENE. I actually have it further east than the 70.0 W line as of 21:15 Z (5:15 PM EDT)...say ~69.9 W. This is getting closer to the 12Z GFDL's 69.3 W.

[hurricanetrack]

Wouldn't it be amazing if this thing never developed? It sheared out like the GFS has showed in some runs and just "goes away". It looks really poor this evening- hard to even conceive that this could be a hurricane much less a tropical storm EVER.

I suppose conditions are going to become remarkably favorable to allow this to strengthen. Big time wait and see game here...

[Roswell_Atup]

it looks to me like tropical development is now unlikely... it would probably dissipate like 98L...

[txwatcher91]

For one thing, it has about 30-40 knots of shear over it currently. However, the ridge appears to be building in, and it is likely that shear will gradually lessen tonight and moreso tomorrow.

[cpdaman]

checkin back in here

thanks wxman for the response to my earlier message, those ull are pesky and sometimes unpredicatable

i think the ull holds the key to development of this sytem, if the storm keeps moving further east it may seperate enough from the ull to develop (yet move far enough off shore to lessen the odds it returns) on the other hand if it stops at say 69 like i belive it will, the pesky ull will have to move sw or wsw another degree and a half to lessen the shear IMO

patience is the name of the game guys.

is the shear from the ull and the trough to the north?

i guess so http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-rb.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[txwatcher91]

Looks like it is now drifting NE in the last few visible frames...

[kevin]

But it has to be a tropical depression, it has to!!

[windstorm99]

Iam agreeing with mark on this one it looks very poor this evening and it from what its looking like tonight significant development of this mess is not going to happen anytime soon or maybe not at all.

[Emmett_Brown]

This storm is going to develop. The pro mets on this board are very bullish on this system becoming a hurricane in the not to distant future. Not often on this board to you see a disturbance get this kind of pro development forecast. Therefore, lets assume this becomes a significant TC, and talk about the eventual track. Here are some observations:

1. Clockwise loop? This system is very weak at the moment, so it should be steered by the low level flow. How often have we seen naked swirls actually travel southward before moving westward as the high approaches? Quite often in my opinion. The Bahama invest last week is a prime example. As the high approaches the system from the west, I would think that a clockwise loop with some southerly component is not out of the question here, since the system is so shallow. Perhaps it could loose a degree of latitude or 2.

2. How long will it go west, and at what speed? This season has seen many fast moving disturbances. High pressure areas have been quite robust, and systems have moved along at a good clip. Models have tended to underestimate the strenth of ridges, (Felix is an example, originally forecast to hit Belize, and coming in quite a bit south of there). When the system turns West, how long and at what speed? I would think some W/SW component is possible if the system does a clockwise loop, followed by west for a while. In this scenario, one cant rule out a rare GA landfall in my opinion.

3. New England?Once it recurves, how long with the Northern component last? Depending on the angle of the approaching trough, this system could easily threaten New England.

Just the ramblings of a mad scientist, but I think we should focus on track now. A 1005 mb low over warm water with ridging in place should be a slam dunk, so lets eliminate the variable of "if" and talk about "where".

[Coredesat]

With that upper trough sitting right on top of it, I would say chances of development are slim until it lifts out, which may not be for a day or two.

[kevin]

Just the ramblings of a mad scientist, but I think we should focus on track now. A 1005 mb low over warm water with ridging in place should be a slam dunk, so lets eliminate the variable of "if" and talk about "where".

Not true in my opinion. I have seen storms equally called for in the past vanish under high shear. The fact of the matter is shear is near this storm and quite capable of tearing it to pieces before the environment improves. There is no determinism in meteorology and the place where meteorologists are weakest is in storm intensity.

[windstorm99]

Take a look at the North Atlantic WV loop...notice the front to the north of 99L...notice which way all of the clouds with 99L are moving. Hard to see that doing a 180 and heading back to the US.Overall if it does develope i think the chances are there that this thing will stay of the coast and move out to sea.Adrian

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm checking back tomorrow, no need watching it now or tonight, if something happens, won't happen until tomorrow at the earliest anyway...

I'm more interested in the wave that moved off Africa many models are forecasting to develop,

but I'll be back on this thread tomorrow to check and see if it's any better organized...

[Zardoz]

In my humblest neophyte opinion:

Stick a fork in it. It's done.

[kevin]

Its not done by any stretch of the imagination. But there is no such thing as a 'shoe-in' when a system doesn't even have a tropical core.