Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Category 5]

Looks like Mr. Bauer will be back for another season of "24".

Yes this might just be it's defining 24 hours.

BTW, love the "24" reference.

[Thunder44]

SHIP S 1200 32.90 -70.50 235 354 80 41.0 - - - - - 29.90 - 76.8

Interaction between the low and the high pressure continue to produce gale winds.

I have the ship plotted. VERY suspect wind speed 200 nm NNW of the low. . Doesn't match surrounding reports and it's well northwest of any convection. Probably a bad report. Wind speed near the ship probably closer to 15-20 kts.

I'm not so sure if they are that far off, there have actually been two ships (KSO49 and H3VS) in that area reporting 40kt+ wind earlier this morning. Perhaps the winds speeds are little or really gusts, but I was just looking at QS pass from this morning on the NRL site, it showed 25kt to 30kt wind barbs in that area. Interesting it also shows a 40kt wind barb just NE of the center, under the convection earlier:

[storms in NC]

Guess its time to come out of casual Lurking mode and keep an eye on this one. I would be happy to see some very needed rain to the area, minus any strong winds or tornados of course.

We have to hope it comes inland to get the rain.

[wxman57]

SHIP S 1200 32.90 -70.50 235 354 80 41.0 - - - - - 29.90 - 76.8

Interaction between the low and the high pressure continue to produce gale winds.

I have the ship plotted. VERY suspect wind speed 200 nm NNW of the low. . Doesn't match surrounding reports and it's well northwest of any convection. Probably a bad report. Wind speed near the ship probably closer to 15-20 kts.

I'm not so sure if they are that far off, there have actually been two ships (KSO49 and H3VS) in that area reporting 40kt+ wind earlier this morning. Perhaps the winds speeds are little or really gusts, but I was just looking at QS pass from this morning on the NRL site, it showed 25kt to 30kt wind barbs in that area. Interesting it also shows a 40kt wind barb just NE of the center, under the convection earlier:

Yeah, I see the two ships almost right next to one another. One has a pressure of 1012.9mb, the other 1019.0mb. Ship barometers are often poorly-calibrated. There may be some gusts to 40 kts, but 1 minute sustained isn't likely. If the reports were real, then winds in the squalls 100 miles SE would be 50+ kts.

[MWatkins]

Looks like the high to the north is starting to settle in (notice the clouds streaming out to the east on the north side of the system).

Looks like the overall envelope is starting to crawl westward. Going to be an interesting day ahead.

MW

(PS sorry no show last night...still recovering from a pretty good migrane but will post when I can today)

[gatorcane]

The clouds are indeed streaming very quickly to the west above our system. That tells me a west movement will resume shortly. That is why folks along the E Coast of FL should closely monitor this system. The entire EC of the US does....I wouldn't just zone in on NC or SC with this one.

[windstorm99]

The clouds are indeed streaming very quickly to the west above our system. That tells me a west movement will resume shortly. That is why folks along the E Coast of FL should closely monitor this system. The entire EC of the US does....I wouldn't just zone in on NC or SC with this one.

Gator i think the worry for us is low right now as this system is north of our latitude and is moving W/WNW.

[drezee]

I guess I will chime in. I all but banned myself on the 95L call. I have lifted my personal ban. I will start off saying that I am extremely concerned about this storm! The presentation this morning reminds me of Erin of 1995 wave to hurricane in 18-24 hours. The banding and outflow being esthablished in front of the path of the system, the warm water, and the cold front approaching like Charley. If the cold fronti s properly tilted it can cause an awful lot of air evacuation ala Charley.

This is the classic scenario I call "Tuck and Run." The center has survived the shear and every little poof has tried to pull the center in. We now have a center that has tucked under the convection within the hour and should blow. I mean blow! Recon should find a intensifying Tropical Storm when they get there. I expect this to be a hurricane by 18z tomorrow. If you live on the east coast stay tuned.

[Regit]

I think the area of concern in Savannah, northward, with the concern increasing as you go N.

The ideal scenario at this point would be for this to come inland in Georgia and turn North.

I can dream.

[gatorcane]

The clouds are indeed streaming very quickly to the west above our system. That tells me a west movement will resume shortly. That is why folks along the E Coast of FL should closely monitor this system. The entire EC of the US does....I wouldn't just zone in on NC or SC with this one.

Gator i think the worry for us is low right now as this system is north of our latitude and is moving W/WNW.

I would be shocked if it managed to get all the way down to 25N or so in South Florida -- but a WSW movement may happen if that ridge builds in strong enough...still the threat to South Florida is very low if zero in my opinion.

actually the clouds to the north of this invest are streaming to the WSW ....means a strong ridge building folks...

[tolakram]

An outflow boundary from the storm to the east is heading toward the center. It will be interesting to see how it interacts.

[UpTheCreek]

Guess its time to come out of casual Lurking mode and keep an eye on this one. I would be happy to see some very needed rain to the area, minus any strong winds or tornados of course.

I was wondering when you were going to show up! Greetings, NCBird.....I think I'll wait until tomorrow to put the boat on the trailer.

[windstorm99]

[MWatkins]

Looks like an environmental flight tomorrow:

FLIGHT TWO
A. 09/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0507A CYCLONE
C. 08/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


MW

[Lowpressure]

System starting to look much better. Starting to wrap around.

[seahawkjd]

Looking at the latest visible and IR loops, is the center still fully exposed or is it getting pulled under the CDO now? I can't tell anymore.

[BensonTCwatcher]

SOOOO. I guess we're keeping the global models now? It's Friday and conditions are improving, and we have what looks to be an EC threat. It is also 'purt near when the forecast pattern change was to happen, maybe a little slower. Derek, you were close on predicting that there would be 20 pages of "it's dead" posts. I think your stats are intact

[Buck]

I think the area of concern in Savannah, northward, with the concern increasing as you go N.

The ideal scenario at this point would be for this to come inland in Georgia and turn North.

I can dream.

I'll be dreaming that with you!

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.

Whats the Crow master say this morning?