Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Category 5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10074
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
Location: New Brunswick, NJ
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1581 Postby Category 5 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:30 am

hurricanetrack wrote:Looks like Mr. Bauer will be back for another season of "24". :wink:


Yes this might just be it's defining 24 hours.

BTW, love the "24" reference. 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Re:

#1582 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:30 am

wxman57 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:SHIP S 1200 32.90 -70.50 235 354 80 41.0 - - - - - 29.90 - 76.8

Interaction between the low and the high pressure continue to produce gale winds.


I have the ship plotted. VERY suspect wind speed 200 nm NNW of the low. . Doesn't match surrounding reports and it's well northwest of any convection. Probably a bad report. Wind speed near the ship probably closer to 15-20 kts.


I'm not so sure if they are that far off, there have actually been two ships (KSO49 and H3VS) in that area reporting 40kt+ wind earlier this morning. Perhaps the winds speeds are little or really gusts, but I was just looking at QS pass from this morning on the NRL site, it showed 25kt to 30kt wind barbs in that area. Interesting it also shows a 40kt wind barb just NE of the center, under the convection earlier:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

Re:

#1583 Postby storms in NC » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:32 am

ncbird wrote:Guess its time to come out of casual Lurking mode and keep an eye on this one. I would be happy to see some very needed rain to the area, minus any strong winds or tornados of course.


We have to hope it comes inland to get the rain.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Re:

#1584 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:34 am

Thunder44 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:SHIP S 1200 32.90 -70.50 235 354 80 41.0 - - - - - 29.90 - 76.8

Interaction between the low and the high pressure continue to produce gale winds.


I have the ship plotted. VERY suspect wind speed 200 nm NNW of the low. . Doesn't match surrounding reports and it's well northwest of any convection. Probably a bad report. Wind speed near the ship probably closer to 15-20 kts.


I'm not so sure if they are that far off, there have actually been two ships (KSO49 and H3VS) in that area reporting 40kt+ wind earlier this morning. Perhaps the winds speeds are little or really gusts, but I was just looking at QS pass from this morning on the NRL site, it showed 25kt to 30kt wind barbs in that area. Interesting it also shows a 40kt wind barb just NE of the center, under the convection earlier:

Image


Yeah, I see the two ships almost right next to one another. One has a pressure of 1012.9mb, the other 1019.0mb. Ship barometers are often poorly-calibrated. There may be some gusts to 40 kts, but 1 minute sustained isn't likely. If the reports were real, then winds in the squalls 100 miles SE would be 50+ kts.
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

#1585 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:36 am

Looks like the high to the north is starting to settle in (notice the clouds streaming out to the east on the north side of the system).

Looks like the overall envelope is starting to crawl westward. Going to be an interesting day ahead.

MW

(PS sorry no show last night...still recovering from a pretty good migrane but will post when I can today)
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Invest 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1586 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:40 am

The clouds are indeed streaming very quickly to the west above our system. That tells me a west movement will resume shortly. That is why folks along the E Coast of FL should closely monitor this system. The entire EC of the US does....I wouldn't just zone in on NC or SC with this one.
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1587 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:45 am

gatorcane wrote:The clouds are indeed streaming very quickly to the west above our system. That tells me a west movement will resume shortly. That is why folks along the E Coast of FL should closely monitor this system. The entire EC of the US does....I wouldn't just zone in on NC or SC with this one.


Gator i think the worry for us is low right now as this system is north of our latitude and is moving W/WNW.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: Invest 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1588 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:46 am

I guess I will chime in. I all but banned myself on the 95L call. I have lifted my personal ban. I will start off saying that I am extremely concerned about this storm! The presentation this morning reminds me of Erin of 1995 wave to hurricane in 18-24 hours. The banding and outflow being esthablished in front of the path of the system, the warm water, and the cold front approaching like Charley. If the cold fronti s properly tilted it can cause an awful lot of air evacuation ala Charley.

This is the classic scenario I call "Tuck and Run." The center has survived the shear and every little poof has tried to pull the center in. We now have a center that has tucked under the convection within the hour and should blow. I mean blow! Recon should find a intensifying Tropical Storm when they get there. I expect this to be a hurricane by 18z tomorrow. If you live on the east coast stay tuned.
0 likes   

User avatar
Regit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2341
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
Location: Myrtle Beach

#1589 Postby Regit » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:47 am

I think the area of concern in Savannah, northward, with the concern increasing as you go N.

The ideal scenario at this point would be for this to come inland in Georgia and turn North.

I can dream.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Invest 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1590 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:48 am

windstorm99 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The clouds are indeed streaming very quickly to the west above our system. That tells me a west movement will resume shortly. That is why folks along the E Coast of FL should closely monitor this system. The entire EC of the US does....I wouldn't just zone in on NC or SC with this one.


Gator i think the worry for us is low right now as this system is north of our latitude and is moving W/WNW.


I would be shocked if it managed to get all the way down to 25N or so in South Florida -- but a WSW movement may happen if that ridge builds in strong enough...still the threat to South Florida is very low if zero in my opinion.

actually the clouds to the north of this invest are streaming to the WSW ....means a strong ridge building folks...
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Invest 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1591 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:49 am

An outflow boundary from the storm to the east is heading toward the center. It will be interesting to see how it interacts.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
UpTheCreek
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:28 pm
Location: Vassalboro, Maine

Re:

#1592 Postby UpTheCreek » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:51 am

ncbird wrote:Guess its time to come out of casual Lurking mode and keep an eye on this one. I would be happy to see some very needed rain to the area, minus any strong winds or tornados of course.


I was wondering when you were going to show up! Greetings, NCBird.....I think I'll wait until tomorrow to put the boat on the trailer. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1593 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:52 am

Image
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

Re: 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#1594 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:53 am

Looks like an environmental flight tomorrow:

FLIGHT TWO
A. 09/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0507A CYCLONE
C. 08/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


MW
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

Re: 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#1595 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:01 am

System starting to look much better. Starting to wrap around.
0 likes   

seahawkjd
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:12 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:

Re: 99L: Off SE Coast-Discussions-11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#1596 Postby seahawkjd » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:02 am

Looking at the latest visible and IR loops, is the center still fully exposed or is it getting pulled under the CDO now? I can't tell anymore.
0 likes   

User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1046
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#1597 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:02 am

SOOOO. I guess we're keeping the global models now? It's Friday and conditions are improving, and we have what looks to be an EC threat. It is also 'purt near when the forecast pattern change was to happen, maybe a little slower. Derek, you were close on predicting that there would be 20 pages of "it's dead" posts. I think your stats are intact :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1173
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re:

#1598 Postby Buck » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:05 am

Regit wrote:I think the area of concern in Savannah, northward, with the concern increasing as you go N.

The ideal scenario at this point would be for this to come inland in Georgia and turn North.

I can dream.


I'll be dreaming that with you!
0 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

#1599 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:07 am

Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re:

#1600 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:09 am

OuterBanker wrote:Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.


Whats the Crow master say this morning?
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests