TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[skysummit]

a newbie here..but I'll throw my hat in the ring and say we will have a TD by 11:00

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

PM or AM tomorrow?

[HURAKAN]

a newbie here..but I'll throw my hat in the ring and say we will have a TD by 11:00

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

PM or AM tomorrow?

Unless it's close to land, the NHC won't upgrade a system without visible.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111916
AFDSJU


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 41 WEST WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Interresting discussion...system churning near the Leewards Islands according to Puerto Rico AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.....

[skysummit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[punkyg]

Aw nothing new with the TWO oh well lets wait til tomorrow and see if they say something else. so is convection now over the center? or is the convection still around it.

[RL3AO]

I said 11am Wednesday in the poll yesterday. I might nail it...

I guess it comes down to what it can do tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The TCP seems to disagree with the models NW movement of this system. Take a look at where they place 91L in 72 hours...

[cycloneye]

Aw nothing new with the TWO oh well lets wait til tomorrow and see if they say something else. so is convection now over the center? or is the convection still around it.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE

That is new.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It seems like TPC products (TAFB, Surface Analysis Chart) wants to take the system into the Eastern Caribbean contrary to what the the models are predicting...

18Z Surface Analysis Chart


TAFB Surface Forecast 72 hours

[skysummit]

That's also an old image EWG....that's valid as of 12z.

***Editted: maybe they'll change their thinking for the next release?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

That's also an old image EWG....that's valid as of 12z.

The new one will be out around 00Z

[Blown Away]

Is 91L the EC storm JB has been talking about?

[punkyg]

I picked tomorrow at 5pm. that this will develop, but i don't know if it'll get organized in time.

[Anthonyl]

Agian I may be wrong but I just can't by into the modles and expext the MHC take on this system to be more plausible.Pro Met Derek what's your take.

[Gustywind]

Aw nothing new with the TWO oh well lets wait til tomorrow and see if they say something else. so is convection now over the center? or is the convection still around it.

HI punkyg , how are you , nice to see you!
I continue to monitor this system carefully, very interressing system...

[jdjaguar]

a newbie here..but I'll throw my hat in the ring and say we will have a TD by 11:00

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

PM or AM tomorrow?

Personal upgrade PM.

Official upgrade AM.

[Weatherfreak000]

There is currently no real reason to assume the storm is heading towards the East Coast.

Model guidance typically always shows this scenario for invests in this area (Pre-Dean/Felix anyone?)

The point here is regardless whether it's a Caribbean storm or not, it's September and there is no more reason to assume the High Pressure is going to save the CONUS now.

I personally am not seeing a fish with 91L and believe a Caribbean track is most likely. But obviously it's just as likely as dissipation.

[Derek Ortt]

a track primarily to the WNW; however, center reformations to the north of the actual track are likely

[canegrl04]

I say TD by 11am Wed.,too

[punkyg]

I'm doing good Gusty.
Hey guys on the navy/NRL site they said that the pressure for 91L is down to 1009mb. and now the winds are up to 25kts if you didn't know