TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1201 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:01 pm

The NHC suggests that the system won't be a problem for us in the islands as there wont be a strong ridge to guide it in a westward direction...


Quote:
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Yeah should it verifies we can hope it happens...is this trend continues it will be good news... on the paper first, we will see in the atmosphere after
:?: :roll: :double: 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#1202 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:05 pm

x-y-no wrote:Far be it from me to argue with the NHC, but the center location looks somewhat SW of their fix to me - around 13.1N 45.7W.

Absolutely somewhere like that...... :roll:
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#1203 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:07 pm

I went with 13.3N and 46.0W

There is nothing at all on visible imagery where Brown put the center. I am having a hard time understanding his position, UNLESS I missed a microwave pass
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1204 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:08 pm

Well according to the models...ridge seems to hold strong

Image
0 likes   

aguaviva
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:09 pm

#1205 Postby aguaviva » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:09 pm

I agree with Derek. I don't see how this center can be at 13.5N and 45.5W. Its further west and south. Whether that will be meaningful trackwise at the end of the day is another story. Derek what is your thinking right now with respect to the future behavior of the high?
0 likes   

bocadude86
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2007 3:29 pm
Location: Boca Raton, Fl

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1206 Postby bocadude86 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:11 pm

It will be interesting to see what td8 does in the next couple of days..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145504
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1207 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:13 pm

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...NUMBER EIGHT...HAS
BECOME STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 8 AM SATURDAY. CURRENT PROJECTED
TRAJECTORY FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A
PATH THAT WOULD PULL IT NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY NOT
AND EXPECT TO HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LOCAL
AREA...LIKELY IN 6 TO 8 DAYS.



From the AFD in San Juan.Uncertainty is the word here.
0 likes   

jhamps10

#1208 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:14 pm

I'm placing the center at 13.3 N 46.2 W.

where brown places this is well on the far NE edge of the main convection area. Not buying that one at all.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145504
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1209 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:14 pm

Derek,how you see the intensity after 4 days? I ask because NHC goes down.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1210 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:15 pm

viewtopic.php?p=1630833#p1630833

Forecast posted....I want critisim.
0 likes   

aguaviva
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:09 pm

#1211 Postby aguaviva » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:16 pm

I think he was suggesting earlier that the shear may not be as big a factor as originally thought. The high, the high, the high, there lies the biggest uncertainty in my view.....
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1212 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:17 pm

So for the next 5 days will a weaker/shallow TS tend to move more W than a stronger/deeper Hurricane?
0 likes   

User avatar
hial2
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Indian trail N.C.

Re:

#1213 Postby hial2 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:17 pm

aguaviva wrote:I agree with Derek. I don't see how this center can be at 13.5N and 45.5W. Its further west and south. Whether that will be meaningful trackwise at the end of the day is another story. Derek what is your thinking right now with respect to the future behavior of the high?


Can someone please advise the distance in miles between tenth of degrees? ..Thanks!

To clarify the question, the distance between say 13.5 and 13.6
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#1214 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:19 pm

the Ncep model that shall not be named has the worst of shear


it's shear forecasts are usually worthless


complicating the issue is the fact that the models have a TC that is too weak. They may not be properly be developing the outflow over the TC, which could have major implications regarding the shear

also of note, the GFDL ahs had issues keeping a TC all year. It wanted to drop Felix like a lead ballon. It's output does not mean that much to me as it is based upon the questionable ncep global model
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#1215 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the Ncep model that shall not be named has the worst of shear


it's shear forecasts are usually worthless


complicating the issue is the fact that the models have a TC that is too weak. They may not be properly be developing the outflow over the TC, which could have major implications regarding the shear

also of note, the GFDL ahs had issues keeping a TC all year. It wanted to drop Felix like a lead ballon. It's output does not mean that much to me as it is based upon the questionable ncep global model


Derek, do you still go with your first track?
0 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re:

#1216 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I went with 13.3N and 46.0W

There is nothing at all on visible imagery where Brown put the center. I am having a hard time understanding his position, UNLESS I missed a microwave pass


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... W.65pc.jpg

My interpretation of the 1643 AQUA pass is that at that time the center was just E or NE of 13N45W. If you pinned me down I'd have to go with 13.1N 44.9W at that time. Given the forward speed of WNW @ 10kt over 4 hours since then, 40NM WNW of there would be in the neighborhood of 13.3 and 45.5W. Probably not too bad of a center fix IMHO. It's a TD...so the fixes will be prone to some uncertainty.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1217 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:23 pm

I also agree with Derek on this one. I think the center is near 13°N 46°W.
0 likes   

chrisnnavarre
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2003 5:52 pm
Contact:

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1218 Postby chrisnnavarre » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:25 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If you turn on the tropical forecast points, and LAT/LONG lines it is clear that as of latest 2015UTC this is south and west of proposed track. By quiet a bit I might add. Track currently appears due west.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145504
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1219 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:28 pm

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.5


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Bouy 41041 60 miles north of the center is reporting the above.Pressure keeps falling and winds still are picking up.
0 likes   

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: Trop Dep EIGHT (ATL): Discussions & Images 5 PM page 59

#1220 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:29 pm

I feel rather unqualified to post a forecast in regards to the shear that might effect the system at the end of the forecast period, but it seems to me that if the system moves more west rather than west northwest, it will avoid the worst of the shear. Not saying whether it will move more to the west or west northwest, but that might be something to keep in mind for intensity forecasts.

If anyone with more experience than me wants to correct me, I'd be happy to learn more.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests