TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Gustywind]

The NHC suggests that the system won't be a problem for us in the islands as there wont be a strong ridge to guide it in a westward direction...


Quote:
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Yeah should it verifies we can hope it happens...is this trend continues it will be good news... on the paper first, we will see in the atmosphere after

[Gustywind]

Far be it from me to argue with the NHC, but the center location looks somewhat SW of their fix to me - around 13.1N 45.7W.

Absolutely somewhere like that......

[Derek Ortt]

I went with 13.3N and 46.0W

There is nothing at all on visible imagery where Brown put the center. I am having a hard time understanding his position, UNLESS I missed a microwave pass

[Ivanhater]

Well according to the models...ridge seems to hold strong

[aguaviva]

I agree with Derek. I don't see how this center can be at 13.5N and 45.5W. Its further west and south. Whether that will be meaningful trackwise at the end of the day is another story. Derek what is your thinking right now with respect to the future behavior of the high?

[bocadude86]

It will be interesting to see what td8 does in the next couple of days..

[cycloneye]

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...NUMBER EIGHT...HAS
BECOME STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 8 AM SATURDAY. CURRENT PROJECTED
TRAJECTORY FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A
PATH THAT WOULD PULL IT NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY NOT
AND EXPECT TO HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LOCAL
AREA...LIKELY IN 6 TO 8 DAYS.



From the AFD in San Juan.Uncertainty is the word here.

[jhamps10]

I'm placing the center at 13.3 N 46.2 W.

where brown places this is well on the far NE edge of the main convection area. Not buying that one at all.

[cycloneye]

Derek,how you see the intensity after 4 days? I ask because NHC goes down.

[JonathanBelles]

viewtopic.php?p=1630833#p1630833

Forecast posted....I want critisim.

[aguaviva]

I think he was suggesting earlier that the shear may not be as big a factor as originally thought. The high, the high, the high, there lies the biggest uncertainty in my view.....

[Blown Away]

So for the next 5 days will a weaker/shallow TS tend to move more W than a stronger/deeper Hurricane?

[hial2]

I agree with Derek. I don't see how this center can be at 13.5N and 45.5W. Its further west and south. Whether that will be meaningful trackwise at the end of the day is another story. Derek what is your thinking right now with respect to the future behavior of the high?

Can someone please advise the distance in miles between tenth of degrees? ..Thanks!

To clarify the question, the distance between say 13.5 and 13.6

[Derek Ortt]

the Ncep model that shall not be named has the worst of shear


it's shear forecasts are usually worthless


complicating the issue is the fact that the models have a TC that is too weak. They may not be properly be developing the outflow over the TC, which could have major implications regarding the shear

also of note, the GFDL ahs had issues keeping a TC all year. It wanted to drop Felix like a lead ballon. It's output does not mean that much to me as it is based upon the questionable ncep global model

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

the Ncep model that shall not be named has the worst of shear


it's shear forecasts are usually worthless


complicating the issue is the fact that the models have a TC that is too weak. They may not be properly be developing the outflow over the TC, which could have major implications regarding the shear

also of note, the GFDL ahs had issues keeping a TC all year. It wanted to drop Felix like a lead ballon. It's output does not mean that much to me as it is based upon the questionable ncep global model

Derek, do you still go with your first track?

[AJC3]

I went with 13.3N and 46.0W

There is nothing at all on visible imagery where Brown put the center. I am having a hard time understanding his position, UNLESS I missed a microwave pass

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... W.65pc.jpg

My interpretation of the 1643 AQUA pass is that at that time the center was just E or NE of 13N45W. If you pinned me down I'd have to go with 13.1N 44.9W at that time. Given the forward speed of WNW @ 10kt over 4 hours since then, 40NM WNW of there would be in the neighborhood of 13.3 and 45.5W. Probably not too bad of a center fix IMHO. It's a TD...so the fixes will be prone to some uncertainty.

[CrazyC83]

I also agree with Derek on this one. I think the center is near 13°N 46°W.

[chrisnnavarre]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If you turn on the tropical forecast points, and LAT/LONG lines it is clear that as of latest 2015UTC this is south and west of proposed track. By quiet a bit I might add. Track currently appears due west.

[cycloneye]

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.5


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Bouy 41041 60 miles north of the center is reporting the above.Pressure keeps falling and winds still are picking up.

[BigA]

I feel rather unqualified to post a forecast in regards to the shear that might effect the system at the end of the forecast period, but it seems to me that if the system moves more west rather than west northwest, it will avoid the worst of the shear. Not saying whether it will move more to the west or west northwest, but that might be something to keep in mind for intensity forecasts.

If anyone with more experience than me wants to correct me, I'd be happy to learn more.