Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Stormcenter]

Well radar presentation still looks good and as for the motion well it
still seems to be Northeastward. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[JonathanBelles]

It looks to me that the center hasnt moved a whole lot, if anything a NE movement.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Might be an illusion, but it does look to have more of a due N motion in the last few radar frames..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

[wxman57]

Is it just me or has it really taken a wooble to the north or NNW on GRX radar.

It's not you, I see the NE wobble ended 30 minutes ago and it moved west of north the past 30 minutes.

I’m looking at radar loops in GARP and measuring 1hr 2, and 3 hr movement.

Current position 28.9N/94.7W at 8:50pm.

I get a 1 hr loop toward about 4 degrees at 7 kts

2 hr movement toward 13 degrees at 6.5 kts

3 hr movement toward 13 degrees at 5.5 kts

So eastern Bolivar Peninsula looks like the landfall point. 31nm to Bolivar at 7 kts = just over 4 hours, around 1am for landfall, maybe as late as 2am.

[miamicanes177]

I think predicting a LA landfall is quite a bit of a stretch. More like eastern Bolivar Peninsula (just east of Galveston Bay) early tomorrow morning. No significant change in strength prior to landfall, except maybe a little weaker with the dry air entrainment.

I doubt it will be weaker. I agree with Derek Ortt's forecast for landfall between 55kt-60kts, with a chance of hurricane status if it stays over water long enough.

[wxman57]

Just made another measurement from 01Z to 02Z and I get 359 degrees at 6.5 kts.

[Bailey1777]

It looks weaker already.IMO dry air is really starting to wrap into the core now.

[wxman57]

I think predicting a LA landfall is quite a bit of a stretch. More like eastern Bolivar Peninsula (just east of Galveston Bay) early tomorrow morning. No significant change in strength prior to landfall, except maybe a little weaker with the dry air entrainment.

I doubt it will be weaker. I agree with Derek Ortt's forecast for landfall between 55kt-60kts, with a chance of hurricane status if it stays over water long enough.

We were thinking the same thing earlier (possibly stronger) but with dry air moving in and the weakening squalls it doesn't look like it will strengthen in the 4 hours prior to landfall.

[Bailey1777]

yes it is, you can clearly see it on radar. It is wrapping dry air all the way in!

[Stormcenter]

We can go back and forth on this all night but eventually the radars
and satellites will tell the story as to where he is moving and "at the moment" to me it doesn't
look like it will be Houston or Galveston.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[jwayne]

[quote="unctarheel1209"]Dry air isn't moving in the core.[/quote]


it's eroded the entire southern part of "eyewall" away.

[Stormcenter]

Dry air isn't moving in the core.

it's eroded the entire southern part of "eyewall" away.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
It still looks pretty healthy on satellite. IMO

[Andrew92]

OK, I concede that Humberto will probably not become a hurricane before making landfall in a few hours. However, this still was a close call; had it been able to develop further out in the open waters of the GOM, this likely would have been real bigtime trouble.

Now let's just pray for the best and that there is only minimal to no flooding associated with Humberto. Also, that some moisture reaches into Alabama and Tennessee, where it's very dry and they need the rain.

-Andrew92

[windstorm99]

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Dry air isn't moving in the core.

The whole southwestern quadrant is collapsing due to dry air entrainment.

[KatDaddy]

Thankfully winding down for Galveston County. I am setting at 1.61" with a max gust of 22mph from the NE. Just enough wind and rain with very fast moving clouds to know thats enough.

[Derek Ortt]

this kind of reminds me of Alberto 1994 with tis radar signature

[mattpetre]

Well, maybe Joe Bastardi's prediction yesterday morning of sustained TS winds in Texas might also be wrong, if the center can hang a little further East.

Although after moving NE, looks like maybe a wobble closer to due North. Tricky, because on HGX radar something sort of weird looking happening near the center.

His prediction may be wrong, but he was more correct on this storm eventually forming than 90% of the folks here. I give high praise to Bastardi on this one...

[Buck]

Speaking of Alberto (1994)... it should have been the first TS to have been retired (followed by Allison in 2001), in my opinion. Sure it didn't cause $5 billion in damages... but it still killed 30 people and left a lasting mark on Alabama and Georgia.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Kudos to Joe Bastardi- nailed the formation of gabrielle
as well as humberto. His skills deserve respect.