TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[JTD]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10

OUT OF MELBOURNE-
VERY STRONG RIDGE with Atlantic ridge merging with a contental
ridge. TD 8 will likely NOT recurve.
Mon-thu this thing goes WNW for 7 days..that would
bring it to the Bahamas...

gatorcane mentioned this earlier.

MON-THU...THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE RIDING BEHIND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT
WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SO FAR
TO THE N...ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS WILL BE
FORCED UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE S WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DOMINANT ERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE ERLIES COULD PUSH A T-WAVE ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.

Hmmm....storm under a potentially strong ridge heading in the general direction of Florida That is never something that you want to see. Thanks for posting that TBH. One would think that a storm under a strong ridge wouldn't get sheared by 40-50 knots either.

Punkyg,

that JPEG that you posted shows TD #8 to be looking rather healthy at the moment. Looking very good indeed. I think recon finds a definite tropical storm.

[windstorm99]

Again this is forcasted to be a TD at the end of the forcasted period which as of right now is not a significant worry.Hopefully it can avoid the islands.

[ronjon]

I'm starting to get a little concerned about the synoptic setup early to middle part of next week. Whether or not TD 8 survives the next couple of days and becomes a tropical storm in the near term I don't think is the issue now. A sprawling mega high is progged to build off the mid-atlantic coast early next week and the models are showing low pressure now moving across the FL peninsula sometime on Wednesday and then into the GOM. The low pressure that is forecasted is both at the surface and 500 mb so its unclear to me if this will be a cutoff ULL or something more hybrid. What is a little worrisome is that at the base of these sprawling high pressure systems you get surface convergence which often spins up convective masses. This I believe was a similar set up for Katrina's development. Couple in the fact that you might have baroclinic energy, say as the spark to light the fire, with the mid-level energy, means that some type of storm could get going east of FL. The 12Z Euro brings a piece of this energy across FL and develops a system in the GOM. Steering currents, as progged, would bring anything east of FL across the state. If something develops, I would look at the area east of the Bahamas as the focal point.

[storms in NC]

From what I just read from Marks site. Is about the way I feel about the rest of the year for the east coast.

[aguaviva]

Again this is forcasted to be a TD at the end of the forcasted period which as of right now is not a significant worry.Hopefully it can avoid the islands.

I think what they are concerned about is that after the end of the end of the forecast period it still alive and that at that point conditions for intensification improve.

[fci]

it wouldn't suprise me if RECON did NOT find a TS, but it would not suprise me either if they did find it was a TS, with the way it is looking on satellite, espically since we are very close to DMIN.

It is great to see you take a stand!

[windstorm99]

Again this is forcasted to be a TD at the end of the forcasted period which as of right now is not a significant worry.Hopefully it can avoid the islands.

I think what they are concerned about is that after the end of the end of the forecast period it still alive and that at that point conditions for intensification improve.

Correct...Could be a problem.

[BigA]

Again this is forcasted to be a TD at the end of the forcasted period which as of right now is not a significant worry.Hopefully it can avoid the islands.

I think what they are concerned about is that after the end of the end of the forecast period it still alive and that at that point conditions for intensification improve.

Correct...Could be a problem.

I cant really see this as a 30 knot tropical depression in 120 hours. It seems to me that it will either be able to evade some of the worst shear, and stay as a moderate TS, or it will be utterly destroyed by the shear. I dont see too many systems that just sort of muddle their way westward as TDs.

Even if this thing does get ripped apart in the 72-120 hr timeframe, when it moves into better conditions near the Bahamas, the East Coast needs to watch it.

[canegrl04]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10

OUT OF MELBOURNE-
VERY STRONG RIDGE with Atlantic ridge merging with a contental
ridge. TD 8 will likely NOT recurve.
Mon-thu this thing goes WNW for 7 days..that would
bring it to the Bahamas...

gatorcane mentioned this earlier.

MON-THU...THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE RIDING BEHIND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT
WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SO FAR
TO THE N...ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS WILL BE
FORCED UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE S WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DOMINANT ERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE ERLIES COULD PUSH A T-WAVE ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.

I hope this doesn't come to pass.Otherwise,Florida and the Gulf have alot to worry about next week I noticed the media aren't even mentioning td 8 right now,but after this becomes Ingrid,they'll be all over it

[JTD]

Just checked out all of the visibles on the NHC site,

TD #8 is looking impressive this afternoon. Starting to take on a circular appearance. Dark red in the center. Looks good on Dvorak IR as well. I'm guessing recon finds a 45 mph tropical storm.

[Brent]

New quikscat... pretty obvious. Very well-defined LLC and some TS wind barbs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its been obvious for almost the last day and a half. Recon should do one of two things, make me right or make me wrong. One way or the other it was worth debating.

[brunota2003]

Is that a couple of 55 knot, uncontaminated, wind vecors I see on QuikScat?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is that a couple of 55 knot, uncontaminated, wind vecors I see on QuikScat?

It would not suprize me, Alberto had almost hurricane winds in the LLC was exposed.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 40-45 kt TS Ingrid right now.

[CrazyC83]

Is that a couple of 55 knot, uncontaminated, wind vecors I see on QuikScat?

That looks like 45 kt uncontaminated and 55 kt contaminated.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



TD 8 making a comeback.

[O Town]

Okay could someone please explain to me how to tell if the barbs are contaminated or not. I heard this said on a few different occasions and just want to know so I can determine that as well. Thanks.

[brunota2003]

Is that a couple of 55 knot, uncontaminated, wind vecors I see on QuikScat?

That looks like 45 kt uncontaminated and 55 kt contaminated.

The Penants are 50 knots...and on the South side, there are 3 or 4 of those, including a couple with an additional barb. Black is rain contaminated, those are purple.

[jasons2k]

Okay could someone please explain to me how to tell if the barbs are contaminated or not. I heard this said on a few different occasions and just want to know so I can determine that as well. Thanks.

Read the legend on the image. Black barbs are contaminated.