Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

144 GFS, has low pressure just south of new orleans.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS...

174 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
^^hovering south of the TX/LA border^^

204 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
^^hovering off the TX coast^^

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^has made landfall on the upper TX coast and is moving inland^^

This run is much further west with the potential system than the 18z run was, and now seems to bullseye Texas as the end target.

[ROCK]

00z GFS...

174 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
^^hovering south of the TX/LA border^^

204 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
^^hovering off the TX coast^^

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^has made landfall on the upper TX coast and is moving inland^^

This run is much further west with the potential system than the 18z run was, and now seems to bullseye Texas as the end target.

well lets see...its been to TX to FL.....safe to say all of the gulf coast needs to keep an eye out.......

[jhamps10]

00z GFS...

174 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
^^hovering south of the TX/LA border^^

204 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
^^hovering off the TX coast^^

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^has made landfall on the upper TX coast and is moving inland^^

This run is much further west with the potential system than the 18z run was, and now seems to bullseye Texas as the end target.

well lets see...its been to TX to FL.....safe to say all of the gulf coast needs to keep an eye out.......

yeah, the placement may change, but one thing that remains, is that it shows something out there. Defentially has my ears pinned that's for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the strength/position of the coming ridge will be crucial for the potential path. The weaker or further east the ridge is, then the more likely the storm will be to strike from Louisiana eastward..whereas the stronger or further west the ridge is, the more likely the storm will be to strike from Louisiana westward. Hopefully within the next few days we will have a much better idea on how this situation will play out and whether or not this "possible" storm seems to actually be taking shape.

[WindRunner]

I'll copy this over from the Ingrid model thread, where I posted it earlier. It's more pertinent here, though . . .



I wouldn't take the Euro too seriously . . . that's the third time this season I've seen it try to develop an offshoot of the Columbian low, and neither time did it actually occur.

Though the fact that the GFS develops it as well is a bit more promising, I would (as always) suggest waiting for additional model support and a closer timeframe before jumping on that bandwagon . . .

[Stormcenter]

I'll copy this over from the Ingrid model thread, where I posted it earlier. It's more pertinent here, though . . .



I wouldn't take the Euro too seriously . . . that's the third time this season I've seen it try to develop an offshoot of the Columbian low, and neither time did it actually occur.

Though the fact that the GFS develops it as well is a bit more promising, I would (as always) suggest waiting for additional model support and a closer timeframe before jumping on that bandwagon . . .

I'm not so sure many living along the Gulf coast would consider the potential of another tropical threat "promising" in anyway. I personally will believe it when I see it. The track is pretty unusual to say the least. I can't recall any system that took a track that far north across the Gulf coast from east to west. I do recall Elena doing something like that many years ago but that was after she came up toward Fl. from the south and then went east along the northern Gulf coast to off the Tampa coast and stalled. Then she headed back to west before making landfall somewhere along the central GOM.

[skysummit]

Last night's EURO still showed development, although weaker this run with a low off the Louisiana coast on Sunday, Sept 23rd. The 00z NOGAPS lowers pressures all across the southern Caribbean, while the 00z UKMET tries to form a low. The 06z GFS is also still on the bandwagon, but on this run, it re-curves the system east toward the west Florida coast. So, pretty much all the big dogs still agreeing on development.

The NAM jumps on too now with something down there at 84 hours. (Please try not to lecture me about the NAM)

*Still....oddly enough, the Canadian shows nothing LOL

[caneman]

Link for 06 GFS?

[skysummit]

Link for 06 GFS?

Comes from the WSW over Florida:
06z GFS

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather also supports the Southern Caribbean. They don't support Colombia, they support Columbia (Pictures)?!?!?!?!?

[ronjon]

From HPC Preliminary Disc:

...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW FROM OFF THE EAST FL COAST WILL WORK WESTWARD TOWARDS ALONG THE UPPER GLFMEX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH RAIN SPREADING WESTWARD THRU THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY MAY SPREAD NWD ENHANCING THIS AREA.

[mattpetre]

That front and being cutoff is the main reason I believe there could be a depression form in this area. I initially thought it would be the ex 92L wave and the front interacting in a symbiotic way, but it appears that the front alone getting cutoff around FL is the only was this scenario could pan out. I'm not as bullish as I was on Humberto for that week, but do still believe it could happen.

[Vortex]

1415 utc visible shows developing cyclonic turning over panama near 8/83w beginning to tighten and move north over water

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[jhamps10]

1415 utc visible shows developing cyclonic turning over panama near 8/83w beginning to tighten and move north over water

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

I was just getting ready to post that vortex, good eye. if this keeps up with convection, we could have an invest tomorrow.

[Vortex]

From Jeff Masters this morning:


Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida.

[Sanibel]

Lyons says to watch for the weak wave moving westward through the Caribbean to merge with the Low trying to pull up from Panama and move north.

[jhamps10]

TPC's thoughts in the TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
FAR TO THE EAST AS 70W. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOUTHWEST OF 14N83W 11N75W. A 500 MB TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W ARE MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N70W ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

and sanibel, That would make a lot of sense, and should it merge, then that would give it a real good shot of developing into something.

[Vortex]

I was thinking about that this morning..In fact, i remember John Hope on similar situations and he nailed it most of the time

[skysummit]

Good eye vortex! It's definitely there, and moving offshore. I never thought of looking this morning. Thanks!