Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

jhamps10 · #121 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:26 am

guys, what's your thoughts on where a pontential "center" of this would be? to my eyes it appears to be near 10.5N/78-79W, but there is so much convection down there, to get a real good view of the situation.

anyone care to comment????

Sanibel · #122 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:37 am

Caribbean surface low appears to be ducking down towards it.

If it merges that center should change. There's high mountains there in western Panama. I climbed 11,000 foot Vulcan Baru right under that swirl. It could be an eddy.

Ed Mahmoud · #123 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:46 am

Sanibel wrote:Caribbean surface low appears to be ducking down towards it.

If it merges that center should change. There's high mountains there in western Panama. I climbed 11,000 foot Vulcan Baru right under that swirl. It could be an eddy.

Eddy eems possible
Models didn't seem quite that quick for a surface low to develop, and JB said upper pattern had to change, with shear replaced by light anticylone aloft (as upper low heads West) before this would become a player.

Waiting to see if JB has any ideas today. No new posttoday.

Ed Mahmoud · #124 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:55 am

I wonder if something pops on the Pacific side, looks a little better there.

Extremeweatherguy · #125 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:05 am

jhamps10 · #126 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:11 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is a look at a few storms of years past that have formed in the western Caribbean during the month of September and then have headed into the GOM...

Gordon (2000) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Opal (1995) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)

Henri (1979) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Delia (1973) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Ella (1970) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Debbie (1965) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Carla (1961) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Flossy (1956) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

How (1951) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)

Easy (1950) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#7 (1945) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#6 (1940) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#14 (1933) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#5 (1924) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month)

#2 (1920) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#6 (1906) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#3 (1905) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#4 (1900) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

wow, that's some great research EWG! I'm sure that took all morning to find.

#127 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:11 am

12z GFS more agressive with storm in carribean...Potential for flooding situation setting up for portions of Florida from a number of factors and may be an extended event...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

#128 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:17 am

126 hours

Very agressive.

#129 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:20 am

The 500mb steering on this run looks to send it back toward Florida possibly.

Extremeweatherguy · #130 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:23 am

This run is a bit different than the 06z. By 18z Thursday on the 6z run, the low was already hitting south FL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif ), but on the current run, the low is off the tip of western Cuba ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif ).

Also, there are differences in the 500mb pattern too..

The 6z showed a stronger ULL and more of a northward influence toward FL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif ), but the 12z shows a much weaker ULL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif ). Overall, it is kind of a strange looking setup.

#131 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:24 am

138 hours

Over Western Cuba.

#132 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:26 am

GFS at H+138 continues agressive and the 500mb pattern would suggest an eastern GOM or Florida threat...Flooding could be a major concern from this system and other factors for florida at least...

Extremeweatherguy · #133 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:28 am

156 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

#134 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:29 am

156 hours

Over Central Gulf.

#135 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:30 am

500mb Steering

This run is further west than the previous.

#136 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:33 am

168 hours

#137 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:33 am

500mb Steering

Extremeweatherguy · #138 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:34 am

The potential path will really all be determined by the strength and position of the ridge. The last 3 GFS runs have shown pretty much no consistency with that..

00z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif (showed eventual landfall in TX)

06z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif (showed eventual landfall on south FL)

12z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif (showed eventual landfall on FL big bend)

#139 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:36 am

12z NOGAPS at 36 hours:

caneman · #140 Postby **caneman** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:37 am

cycloneye wrote:156 hours

Over Central Gulf.

Not that it's that big of a deal Cyc because we need something to actually track first but this run is in the East GOM and not Central.

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