Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
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Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib
Caribbean surface low appears to be ducking down towards it.
If it merges that center should change. There's high mountains there in western Panama. I climbed 11,000 foot Vulcan Baru right under that swirl. It could be an eddy.
If it merges that center should change. There's high mountains there in western Panama. I climbed 11,000 foot Vulcan Baru right under that swirl. It could be an eddy.
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Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib
Sanibel wrote:Caribbean surface low appears to be ducking down towards it.
If it merges that center should change. There's high mountains there in western Panama. I climbed 11,000 foot Vulcan Baru right under that swirl. It could be an eddy.
Eddy eems possible
Models didn't seem quite that quick for a surface low to develop, and JB said upper pattern had to change, with shear replaced by light anticylone aloft (as upper low heads West) before this would become a player.
Waiting to see if JB has any ideas today. No new posttoday.
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Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib
I wonder if something pops on the Pacific side, looks a little better there.
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
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- Location: Florida
Here is a look at a few storms of years past that have formed in the western Caribbean during the month of September and then have headed into the GOM...
Gordon (2000) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Opal (1995) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)
Henri (1979) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Delia (1973) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Ella (1970) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Debbie (1965) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Carla (1961) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Flossy (1956) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
How (1951) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)
Easy (1950) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#7 (1945) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#6 (1940) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#14 (1933) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#5 (1924) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month)
#2 (1920) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#6 (1906) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#3 (1905) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#4 (1900) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Gordon (2000) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Opal (1995) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)
Henri (1979) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Delia (1973) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Ella (1970) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Debbie (1965) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Carla (1961) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Flossy (1956) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
How (1951) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)
Easy (1950) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#7 (1945) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#6 (1940) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#14 (1933) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#5 (1924) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month)
#2 (1920) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#6 (1906) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#3 (1905) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#4 (1900) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is a look at a few storms of years past that have formed in the western Caribbean during the month of September and then have headed into the GOM...
Gordon (2000) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Opal (1995) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)
Henri (1979) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Delia (1973) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Ella (1970) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Debbie (1965) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Carla (1961) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Flossy (1956) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
How (1951) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month..more of an October storm)
Easy (1950) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#7 (1945) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#6 (1940) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#14 (1933) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#5 (1924) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif (this was much later in the month)
#2 (1920) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#6 (1906) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#3 (1905) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#4 (1900) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
wow, that's some great research EWG! I'm sure that took all morning to find.
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12z GFS more agressive with storm in carribean...Potential for flooding situation setting up for portions of Florida from a number of factors and may be an extended event...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
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- skysummit
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Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib=12z GFS rolling in
The 500mb steering on this run looks to send it back toward Florida possibly.
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
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- Location: Florida
This run is a bit different than the 06z. By 18z Thursday on the 6z run, the low was already hitting south FL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif ), but on the current run, the low is off the tip of western Cuba ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif ).
Also, there are differences in the 500mb pattern too..
The 6z showed a stronger ULL and more of a northward influence toward FL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif ), but the 12z shows a much weaker ULL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif ). Overall, it is kind of a strange looking setup.
Also, there are differences in the 500mb pattern too..
The 6z showed a stronger ULL and more of a northward influence toward FL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif ), but the 12z shows a much weaker ULL ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif ). Overall, it is kind of a strange looking setup.
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
The potential path will really all be determined by the strength and position of the ridge. The last 3 GFS runs have shown pretty much no consistency with that..
00z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif (showed eventual landfall in TX)
06z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif (showed eventual landfall on south FL)
12z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif (showed eventual landfall on FL big bend)
00z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif (showed eventual landfall in TX)
06z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif (showed eventual landfall on south FL)
12z ridge = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif (showed eventual landfall on FL big bend)
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib=12z GFS rolling in
Not that it's that big of a deal Cyc because we need something to actually track first but this run is in the East GOM and not Central.
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