Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
maybe splitting the channel between yucatan and cuba?????
sure looks like if it does hit cuba it will be the far western tip.
sure looks like if it does hit cuba it will be the far western tip.
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H+114 moving nnw/nw slower solution *possibly* bigger threat for TX/LA
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
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Re:
Vortex wrote:H+114 moving nnw/nw slower solution *possibly* bigger threat for TX/LA
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
which this run is not good at all, why? because it appears that if it even does cross land, it won't be on land for long before getting into the GOM. and that looks unlikely at that.
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- southerngale
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_132l.gif
132, barely off the cuban coast
132, barely off the cuban coast
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- cycloneye
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs is much much weaker then the Nam. In the nam is not that good of a model, so chances of development maybe not as high as I thought.
The GFS showed Felix as an open wave when it was a category 5 hurricane. NEVER use the GFS for intensity forecast. It is horrendous.
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The overall consensus today is pressures will lower over the southern carribean and conditions will become favorable for development. I expect that by mid-week TS(strengthening) near 18N/80W. From that point there are way to many variables at this stage so ALL residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to stay informed..
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
From HPC Final Disc:
...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW FROM OFF THE EAST FL COAST WILL WORK WESTWARD TOWARDS ALONG THE UPPER GLFMEX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH RAIN SPREADING WESTWARD THRU THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY MAY SPREAD NWD ENHANCING THIS AREA.
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TAKING LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OFF OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NWD ALONG THE WRN CARRIBEAN THRU THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL OR OVER WRN CUBA INTO THE GULF MEXICO. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS.
...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW FROM OFF THE EAST FL COAST WILL WORK WESTWARD TOWARDS ALONG THE UPPER GLFMEX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH RAIN SPREADING WESTWARD THRU THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY MAY SPREAD NWD ENHANCING THIS AREA.
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TAKING LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OFF OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NWD ALONG THE WRN CARRIBEAN THRU THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL OR OVER WRN CUBA INTO THE GULF MEXICO. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
GFS also arrears to be showing a stall near Mobile again. climatologically I would think Late september would be a time for a storm to keep moving...esp that far north but...Georges which hit this area hit a wall at the coast of mississippi and sat for quite a while and he was late september so anything possible I guess.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib
Yeah..too close for comfort! but being so far out still plenty of time to watch
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Re:
skysummit wrote:It looks like it really slows as it approaches the gulf coast on this run then moves west a bit toward Louisiana? That's a weird run.
Sky, I think it weakens the ULL and the 500 mb ridge starts to rebuild from the east - pushing it west along the northern gulf coast.
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