Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

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jhamps10

Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#241 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:13 pm

maybe splitting the channel between yucatan and cuba?????

sure looks like if it does hit cuba it will be the far western tip.
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#242 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:15 pm

H+114 moving nnw/nw slower solution *possibly* bigger threat for TX/LA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
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#243 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:17 pm

Btw, watch the NW coast of colombia tonight may see a surface low form just inland and move off the coast if we get very deep convection to pop...
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Re:

#244 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:18 pm

Vortex wrote:H+114 moving nnw/nw slower solution *possibly* bigger threat for TX/LA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

which this run is not good at all, why? because it appears that if it even does cross land, it won't be on land for long before getting into the GOM. and that looks unlikely at that.
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#245 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:18 pm

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#246 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:19 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

120, and yes it is shooting the hole :eek:
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#247 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:21 pm

OT, but just a quick reminder... :)

When you're posting a link, if you'll highlight the URL, then click on the URL tags, when people click on your link, it will open in a new tab/window. Otherwise, the link will open in the same tab/window you're in.

Code: Select all

[url]http://www.storm2k.org/wx/[/url] = opens in new tab or window

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/ = opens in same window and leaves the post you're reading
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#248 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:24 pm

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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#249 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:27 pm

138 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow:

You also can make a hypertext link like this and is also easy for all to open them. :)
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#250 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:29 pm

150 hours

In Eastcentral gulf.
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#251 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs is much much weaker then the Nam. In the nam is not that good of a model, so chances of development maybe not as high as I thought.

The GFS showed Felix as an open wave when it was a category 5 hurricane. NEVER use the GFS for intensity forecast. It is horrendous.
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#252 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:33 pm

Ivan part II on this run.
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#253 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:34 pm

The overall consensus today is pressures will lower over the southern carribean and conditions will become favorable for development. I expect that by mid-week TS(strengthening) near 18N/80W. From that point there are way to many variables at this stage so ALL residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to stay informed..
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#254 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:36 pm

From HPC Final Disc:

...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW FROM OFF THE EAST FL COAST WILL WORK WESTWARD TOWARDS ALONG THE UPPER GLFMEX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH RAIN SPREADING WESTWARD THRU THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY MAY SPREAD NWD ENHANCING THIS AREA.
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TAKING LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OFF OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NWD ALONG THE WRN CARRIBEAN THRU THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL OR OVER WRN CUBA INTO THE GULF MEXICO. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS.
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#255 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:37 pm

168 hours

Looks like a Florida Panhandle landfall.Ivanhater close to you right?
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#256 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:38 pm

GFS also arrears to be showing a stall near Mobile again. climatologically I would think Late september would be a time for a storm to keep moving...esp that far north but...Georges which hit this area hit a wall at the coast of mississippi and sat for quite a while and he was late september so anything possible I guess.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#257 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:38 pm

Well, I thought it was a FL landfall....

Image
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#258 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:168 hours

Looks like a Florida Panhandle landfall.Ivanhater close to you right?


Yeah..too close for comfort! but being so far out still plenty of time to watch
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#259 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:41 pm

It looks like it really slows as it approaches the gulf coast on this run then moves west a bit toward Louisiana? That's a weird run.
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Re:

#260 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:44 pm

skysummit wrote:It looks like it really slows as it approaches the gulf coast on this run then moves west a bit toward Louisiana? That's a weird run.


Sky, I think it weakens the ULL and the 500 mb ridge starts to rebuild from the east - pushing it west along the northern gulf coast.
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