TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[gatorcane]

it would be a minimal TS... you only need about 6 hours worth of lead time for a minimal TS

besides, the NHC does not issue these watches, the gov'ts of the Caribbean and France issue the watches and warnings

Derek what happened to that 500MB High that was supposed to build into the Western Atlantic by mid week this week?

Is the NHC counting on Ingrid getting recurved by the trough first?

Seems like there is the possibility she doesn't turn north and ends up on a WNW to W path then the high builds in north of her and conditions improve?

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 14:45 UTC

[Brent]

Very interesting indeed.

[gatorcane]

It would appear the Northern Islands may see some gusty winds and thunderstorms with Ingrid as you can see the convection is blowing up and moving west towards the islands.

I'm still wondering why the NHC in several discussions kept saying things like "Ingrid will be FAR NE of the islands" and she will have a "daggar in her heart"

Somehow I couldn't accept she would fizzle so quickly given its September (albeit there are ULL winds she is dealing)

In addition she is a shallow system and I think the models are having a hard time dealing with that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

NHC has never done that for France or the other Caribbean islands

I have only seen that for the countries of CA

[JonathanBelles]

It looks mildly better than last night. Shear looks to have relaxed a tad. I'm still holding on the thought that Ingrid will restrengthen on the other side of the shear. I think it will continue more west than the NHC forecast points. JMO

[RL3AO]

I'm still wondering why the NHC in several discussions kept saying things like "Ingrid will be FAR NE of the islands" and she will have a "daggar in her heart"

The NHC would be the first to say they are not perfect. Most of the major models, wind shear forecasts and previous knowledge supported dissipation and a storm to go NE of the islands. When new data supports they were wrong, they are the first to say it. (Or 1000th to say it, depending how busy S2K is).

[gatorcane]

Shear has DEFINITELY relaxed alot.

Take a look at this visible loop to see why:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Notice how the cloud tops on the east side of Ingrid are blowing off pretty fast but on the west side not so much anymore

In addition you don't see those high clouds streaming quickly from SW to NE over Ingrid anymore from the Caribbean.

Looks like she has found a lull in the UL winds although she is still dealing with them but not as much as yesterday.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody please post the mid level steering flow for this coming week. I want to see where that 500MB High is expected to setup shop?

I'm still thinking the NHC is recurving her out too fast. This whole situation reminds me ALOT of Katrina. The NHC kept predicting doom and recurving her out to sea as TD 10/12 was getting ripped apart by the shear...and the NHC kept shifting the track west overtime. Eventually the shear relaxed because a ridge built in the the NW of her and pushed E allowing her to move west and develop.

[HURAKAN]

Any RECON for today?

[ciclonson]

Gatorcane:

Props to you for sticking to your guns on this one. I don't know what the final outcome will be, but so far you have outdone the pros in my opinion!

[miamicanes177]

The NHC would be the first to say they are not perfect. Most of the major models, wind shear forecasts and previous knowledge supported dissipation and a storm to go NE of the islands. When new data supports they were wrong, they are the first to say it. (Or 1000th to say it, depending how busy S2K is).

This is incorrect as the global models have been keeping Ingrid while the NHC was using "dagger through the heart" language. From the 11am Avila forecast Saturday September 15th when Avila was forecasting a 25kt depression in hours 12-120:

"THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. "

[artist]

it would be a minimal TS... you only need about 6 hours worth of lead time for a minimal TS

besides, the NHC does not issue these watches, the gov'ts of the Caribbean and France issue the watches and warnings

don't they forecast for the US Virgin Islands?

[RL3AO]

Any RECON for today?

Looks like a 4pm ET takeoff.

[gatorcane]

Take a look at the floater. She continues to move nearly due west and appears to be missing the NHC points yet again....

In addition she looks like she is slowing down some. This may finally indicate she will start moving more WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Any RECON for today?

Looks like a 4pm ET takeoff.

. THE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 16/00Z AND 16/12Z WERE POSTPONED
BY NCEP FOR 24 HOURS.

[Derek Ortt]

the VI are more than 36 hours away from Ingrid, so nothing is needed there

still, can someone please explain to me what preparation for a minimal TS takes 24 hours? Why is 6 not enough? It is basically a severe thunderstorm, and you get no more than 30 minutes of lead time for a severe thunderstorm

[RL3AO]

the VI are more than 36 hours away from Ingrid, so nothing is needed there

still, can someone please explain to me what preparation for a minimal TS takes 24 hours? Why is 6 not enough? It is basically a severe thunderstorm, and you get no more than 30 minutes of lead time for a severe thunderstorm

Actually its just a thunderstorm. I don't think you are getting 58mph gusts from a 35kt storm.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 15:15 UTC