Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

#82 Postby **BigA** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 11:39 pm

The convective activity associated with the wave at 45 west looks pretty decent right now; Ill check in the morning to see if anythings up with it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #83 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:25 am

Latest quickscat missed a large part of it, but does show that it could have a LLC. At the very least a well formed wave...Got to watch this. Two things this has to worry about is the shear Ingrid is getting, and two SAL.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

Coredesat · #84 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:56 am

Snip from 5:30 TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

#85 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:58 am

8:05 AM Discussion of wave

THIS MORNING...THERE IS ONLY ONE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS TILTED FROM 19N41W TO
6N43W. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N43W. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT DEPICTS VERY CLEAR THE BULGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160-220 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W.

Chacor · #86 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:37 am

712
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 55W AT 19/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA NEAR JAMAICA
CANCELED AT 17/1130Z.
ALL P-3 TASKING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
CANCELED AT 16/0240Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

#87 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:22 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
...
$$

FORECASTER PASCH

canegrl04 · #88 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:23 am

Chacor wrote:712
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 55W AT 19/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA NEAR JAMAICA
CANCELED AT 17/1130Z.
ALL P-3 TASKING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
CANCELED AT 16/0240Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Invest 93L coming up
JWP

#89 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:59 am

Yeah looks like 93L coming soon. At least we have several areas to watch (S Caribbean, this one, the ex-Ingrid wave)...

#90 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:06 am

[quote="CrazyC83"]Yeah looks like 93L coming soon. quote]

Soon, like in a few days???

#91 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:28 pm

Where is the low pressure.

#92 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:05 pm

2:05 PM TPC Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12.5N...BUT IS
RATHER ELONGATED AS SHOWN BY A QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-15N...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-16N.

Blown Away,here is the answer to your question about the low.

Sanibel · #93 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:21 pm

Too dry.

Gustywind · #94 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:28 pm

Sanibel wrote:Too dry.

Wait and see....

CalmBeforeStorm · #95 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:52 pm

Sanibel wrote:Too dry.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Seems like a large moisture envelope to me.

Gustywind · #96 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:39 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Too dry.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Seems like a large moisture envelope to me.

Absolutely man ;i don't see any dry air on this.....where is the dry in the vicinity of the system???http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html
The area with little dry air is near the CV island and in a weakning trend!!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv.jpg
Hé Sanibel :double:

no matter with sal or dry sair! :spam:

you're funny maybe :cheesy:

Gustywind · #97 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:13 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172249
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
VERY BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
38W-54W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:51 am

8:05 AM Discussion from TPC

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING WEST NEAR 10-15 KT.
AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE NIGHT
CHANNEL SAT IMAGERY. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 13N. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #99 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:55 am

This is running into shear. Don't expect anything out of it for at least a few days.

YouTube · #100 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:04 am

So much shear in a La Nina type pattern. Who would have thought? Going to be tough to get to even 12 named storms much less 7 to 9 hurricanes.

Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

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