Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#81 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:04 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#82 Postby BigA » Sun Sep 16, 2007 11:39 pm

The convective activity associated with the wave at 45 west looks pretty decent right now; Ill check in the morning to see if anythings up with it.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#83 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:25 am

Latest quickscat missed a large part of it, but does show that it could have a LLC. At the very least a well formed wave...Got to watch this. Two things this has to worry about is the shear Ingrid is getting, and two SAL.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png
0 likes   

Coredesat

#84 Postby Coredesat » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:56 am

Snip from 5:30 TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145862
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:58 am

8:05 AM Discussion of wave

THIS MORNING...THERE IS ONLY ONE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS TILTED FROM 19N41W TO
6N43W. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N43W. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT DEPICTS VERY CLEAR THE BULGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160-220 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#86 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:37 am

712
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 55W AT 19/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA NEAR JAMAICA
CANCELED AT 17/1130Z.
ALL P-3 TASKING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
CANCELED AT 16/0240Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#87 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:22 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
...
$$

FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

Re:

#88 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:23 am

Chacor wrote:712
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 55W AT 19/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA NEAR JAMAICA
CANCELED AT 17/1130Z.
ALL P-3 TASKING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
CANCELED AT 16/0240Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Invest 93L coming up 8-)
JWP
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34005
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#89 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:59 am

Yeah looks like 93L coming soon. At least we have several areas to watch (S Caribbean, this one, the ex-Ingrid wave)...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#90 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:06 am

[quote="CrazyC83"]Yeah looks like 93L coming soon. quote]

Soon, like in a few days???

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10160
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#91 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:28 pm

Where is the low pressure.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145862
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#92 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:05 pm

2:05 PM TPC Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12.5N...BUT IS
RATHER ELONGATED AS SHOWN BY A QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-15N...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-16N.


Blown Away,here is the answer to your question about the low.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#93 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:21 pm

Too dry.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#94 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:28 pm

Sanibel wrote:Too dry.

Wait and see....
0 likes   

User avatar
CalmBeforeStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 600
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
Location: Stuart, Florida

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#95 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:52 pm

Sanibel wrote:Too dry.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Seems like a large moisture envelope to me.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#96 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:39 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Too dry.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Seems like a large moisture envelope to me.


Absolutely man ;i don't see any dry air on this.....where is the dry in the vicinity of the system???http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html
The area with little dry air is near the CV island and in a weakning trend!!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv.jpg
Hé Sanibel :double: no matter with sal or dry sair! :spam: you're funny maybe :cheesy: :bday:
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#97 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:13 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172249
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
VERY BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
38W-54W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145862
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#98 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:51 am

8:05 AM Discussion from TPC

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING WEST NEAR 10-15 KT.
AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE NIGHT
CHANNEL SAT IMAGERY. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 13N. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD.

0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#99 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:55 am

This is running into shear. Don't expect anything out of it for at least a few days.
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanetrack
HurricaneTrack.com
HurricaneTrack.com
Posts: 1781
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#100 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:04 am

So much shear in a La Nina type pattern. Who would have thought? Going to be tough to get to even 12 named storms much less 7 to 9 hurricanes.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: riapal and 32 guests