Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
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- Portastorm
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
12z GFS surface run at 84 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_l.shtml
(1007 mb low moving west-northwest and looking to take aim at LA)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_l.shtml
(1007 mb low moving west-northwest and looking to take aim at LA)
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
This looks like a LA/MS/AL run. It had been showing a probable Texas hit.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
jhamps10 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:I know that much...What does that mean development/hinder/movement for this thing?
Favorable conditions for strengthening aloft. Doesn't mean anything for movement or much else.
WAIT a minute here canefreak, I thought high ULW meant shear, and in turn would be very unfavorable for development.... am I wrong on that.
Who said there are high upper level winds showing on THIS run of the GFS? The shear is less than 15 knots depicted on this run.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
looks like a nor'easter if forming 100 miles ESE of miami/ft. lauderdale
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
LOTS of convection
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
LOTS of convection
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
Cantore last night said he would not be surprised at all if this moved more east than originally thought.
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- skysummit
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
miamicanes177 wrote:This looks like a LA/MS/AL run. It had been showing a probable Texas hit.
....also moving pretty darn slow and upper level winds in this run look pretty favorable. Well, this just throws a wrench into the whole thing!
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
'CaneFreak wrote:jhamps10 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:
Favorable conditions for strengthening aloft. Doesn't mean anything for movement or much else.
WAIT a minute here canefreak, I thought high ULW meant shear, and in turn would be very unfavorable for development.... am I wrong on that.
Who said there are high upper level winds showing on THIS run of the GFS? The shear is less than 15 knots depicted on this run.
I didn't say that, I was meaning in general with high upper level winds.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
Like most sensible say...Never jump on early model runs....Trend of this has been more east. From TX-Fla, always need to be on the look out for anything that lands in the ole GOM.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
12z GFS surface run at 102 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
(looks like a NOLA hit!)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
(looks like a NOLA hit!)
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
Just barely moving and hovering off the coast there....WOW...not good by any means
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

I'm seeing the beginnings of circulation of the coast to my East. Whether it is upper to mid level I'm not sure...
Run the Loop...
Image centered at Latitude= 25.85° N Longitude= 78.81° W (X=340 Y=292)
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
Portastorm wrote:12z GFS surface run at 102 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
(looks like a NOLA hit!)
Why do some get "excited" and use exclamation points
when a model predicts a NOLA hit? I don't get it.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
12z GFS surface run at 114 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
(inland over Central LA)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
(inland over Central LA)
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
93L
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AL, 93, 2007091806, , BEST, 0, 255N, 786W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091812, , BEST, 0, 258N, 792W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCFSVR1
invest_al932007.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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200709181559
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2007, DB, O, 2007091812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932007
AL, 93, 2007091712, , BEST, 0, 245N, 765W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091718, , BEST, 0, 249N, 772W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091800, , BEST, 0, 252N, 780W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091806, , BEST, 0, 255N, 786W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091812, , BEST, 0, 258N, 792W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L
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