Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

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Wx_Warrior
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1021 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:02 am

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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1022 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:03 am

12z GFS surface run at 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_l.shtml

(1007 mb low moving west-northwest and looking to take aim at LA)
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1023 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:03 am

This looks like a LA/MS/AL run. It had been showing a probable Texas hit.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1024 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:04 am

jhamps10 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:I know that much...What does that mean development/hinder/movement for this thing?


Favorable conditions for strengthening aloft. Doesn't mean anything for movement or much else.


WAIT a minute here canefreak, I thought high ULW meant shear, and in turn would be very unfavorable for development.... am I wrong on that.


Who said there are high upper level winds showing on THIS run of the GFS? The shear is less than 15 knots depicted on this run.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1025 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:04 am

looks like a nor'easter if forming 100 miles ESE of miami/ft. lauderdale

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

LOTS of convection
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1026 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:04 am

Cantore last night said he would not be surprised at all if this moved more east than originally thought.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1027 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:05 am

miamicanes177 wrote:This looks like a LA/MS/AL run. It had been showing a probable Texas hit.


....also moving pretty darn slow and upper level winds in this run look pretty favorable. Well, this just throws a wrench into the whole thing!
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1028 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:05 am

'CaneFreak wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
Favorable conditions for strengthening aloft. Doesn't mean anything for movement or much else.


WAIT a minute here canefreak, I thought high ULW meant shear, and in turn would be very unfavorable for development.... am I wrong on that.


Who said there are high upper level winds showing on THIS run of the GFS? The shear is less than 15 knots depicted on this run.


I didn't say that, I was meaning in general with high upper level winds.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1029 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:06 am

Like most sensible say...Never jump on early model runs....Trend of this has been more east. From TX-Fla, always need to be on the look out for anything that lands in the ole GOM.
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#1030 Postby eaglegirl » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:06 am

Refresh the Navy page.

They are showing 93L.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1031 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:07 am

12z GFS surface run at 102 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

(looks like a NOLA hit!)
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1032 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:08 am

Image



Circulation center forming near 26.5N-79W
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#1033 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:08 am

FWIW Here in Tequesta winds are blowing out of the NE at 30-35 MPH near the ocean..Feels real good..
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#1034 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:09 am

yep, NRL has 93L. lets move this over to the active storms thread after the GFS gets this on land.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1035 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:09 am

Just barely moving and hovering off the coast there....WOW...not good by any means
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1036 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:09 am

Image

I'm seeing the beginnings of circulation of the coast to my East. Whether it is upper to mid level I'm not sure...

Run the Loop...

Image centered at Latitude= 25.85° N Longitude= 78.81° W (X=340 Y=292)

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1037 Postby TampaFl » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:10 am

map courtesy of Crown Weather:


Image
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1038 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:11 am

Portastorm wrote:12z GFS surface run at 102 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

(looks like a NOLA hit!)



Why do some get "excited" and use exclamation points
when a model predicts a NOLA hit? I don't get it.
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1039 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:12 am

12z GFS surface run at 114 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

(inland over Central LA)
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Re: Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#1040 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:12 am

93L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCFSVR1
invest_al932007.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200709181559
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2007, DB, O, 2007091812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932007
AL, 93, 2007091712, , BEST, 0, 245N, 765W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091718, , BEST, 0, 249N, 772W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091800, , BEST, 0, 252N, 780W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091806, , BEST, 0, 255N, 786W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2007091812, , BEST, 0, 258N, 792W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L
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