Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1141 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:22 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote: Well, if your fellow Pro Met Derek Ortt and many of the models are correct, this is inland Saturday and most of your weekend is saved, right?


Yeah...I hope. I think in my gut it will be east of here...but I'm not sure if that is wishful thinking or what. I don't want to wishcast a storm away...and then not cancel the reservations in time. That's a $750 mistake.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1142 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:24 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote: Well, if your fellow Pro Met Derek Ortt and many of the models are correct, this is inland Saturday and most of your weekend is saved, right?


Yeah...I hope. I think in my gut it will be east of here...but I'm not sure if that is wishful thinking or what. I don't want to wishcast a storm away...and then not cancel the reservations in time. That's a $750 mistake.


ouch....750 bucks? wow!!! I think I smell -removed-!!! LOL
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1143 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:26 pm

OK...going to bed guys. Gotta be fresh to make the big decisions tomorrow...
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1144 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:27 pm

Air Force Met wrote:OK...going to bed guys. Gotta be fresh to make the big decisions tomorrow...


Have a good one and THANKS a bunch for staying up with us. Talk to ya later.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1145 Postby Over my head » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:29 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I think Florida needs another 88D near Naples, and while they are at it, an 88D near PBI wouldn't be bad, at the very least as backup for TBW and AMX and MLB.


Because what I'm trying to see is out of the short range view of both TBW and BYX


I was comprehending purdy good. :roll: None of these acronyms are on my list
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#1146 Postby TSmith274 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:30 pm

Perhaps this storm will affect Steve Spurrier's air attack vs LSU on Saturday in Tiger Stadium.

I'm tired and going to bed. I think tomorrow will tell the tale. Looking forward to SOME certainty.
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Re: Re:

#1147 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:30 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:Here we go kids....just like predicted. Just off SW Florida we're forming. Now, I watch and worry.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html



I'm not sold on either center. The one to north looks broad and the one to south still
looks more like its in the upper levels. IMO

It's transforming....The center to the SW of Florida is heading to the surface, IMO...we'll know alot more tomorrow as the day progresses.
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1148 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:30 pm

My current thoughts are that the low over central Florida will dissipate and the low currently forming offshore of SW Florida will become the main low. If you take a look at the long range Key West loop there appears to be some twisting. I know that the radar beam is way high up and this is a mid level circulation att. The low over central Florida has become much more disorganized this evening IMO. My money is on SE GOM NW of Key West where I expect a tropical low to develope. Considering that this low will be futher south I would consider a landfall in central La to SE Texas......MGC
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1149 Postby vaffie » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:31 pm

I understand how the models are taking it north, but I can't help feeling bothered by the possibility of a much stronger storm on a westerly track towards SE Texas.
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Re:

#1150 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:33 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Perhaps this storm will affect Steve Spurrier's air attack vs LSU on Saturday in Tiger Stadium.

I'm tired and going to bed. I think tomorrow will tell the tale. Looking forward to SOME certainty.



SEC football on CBS in feeder bands, that is what I call good times.


Night'all
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1151 Postby MWatkins » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:37 pm

Couple of quick hits...

The upper low is simply not moving tonight...and it is pushing up some decent thunderstorms that aren't getting sheared out etc.

Also...the GFS seems to average the two 850MB vort centers and take the mid point as the tracked feature. This just seems to me like the model is having trouble resolving the two...if the SW center takes over I have a had time buying that it will move quickly enough to get inland in 54 hours.

MW
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1152 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:42 pm

MWatkins wrote:Couple of quick hits...

The upper low is simply not moving tonight...and it is pushing up some decent thunderstorms that aren't getting sheared out etc.

Also...the GFS seems to average the two 850MB vort centers and take the mid point as the tracked feature. This just seems to me like the model is having trouble resolving the two...if the SW center takes over I have a had time buying that it will move quickly enough to get inland in 54 hours.

MW


Same here MW. I agree. I think this southwest center is going to be the more potent one from the way it looks tonight. Looks to me as though the LLC over the general Naples I guess you could call it area might emerge over the water later tonight and get sucked into the deep convection and get going later on tonight and certainly by tomorrow morning. Thoughts?

TF
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1153 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:44 pm

MWatkins wrote:Also...the GFS seems to average the two 850MB vort centers and take the mid point as the tracked feature. This just seems to me like the model is having trouble resolving the two...if the SW center takes over I have a had time buying that it will move quickly enough to get inland in 54 hours.


Hmm...if the upper level low off SW Florida is making its way down to the surface, it seems that it could be a much more significant system than a weak low moving across Central Florida. If this thing does develop, it will be passing over some mighty warm waters, and while shear is still the 64 thousand dollar wildcard (mixed metaphor) I am unsure as to whether or not there is another system in the vecinity to shear it, if the upper level low itself works its way down to the surface.
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#1154 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:22 am

Kinda quiet in here, but it appears the East Low over Florida is fading away.
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1155 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:31 am

Area is still broad.

Using radar which of course can be deceiving, there appears to be some turning to the NW of the Keys.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BYX

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?TBW
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1156 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:37 am

0600z image after eclipse...

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1157 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:07 am

Shear is down to 8-10 knots over this system. Huge decrease in upper level shear...WOW.
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1158 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:11 am

New EURO has a Louisiana landfall....skimming the La coast then up the Sabine River (TX/LA border). Hmm....
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Re: INVEST 93L: West of Florida Penninsula: Discussions & Images

#1159 Postby Zardoz » Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:41 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:New EURO has a Louisiana landfall....skimming the La coast then up the Sabine River (TX/LA border). Hmm....

That's the very worst-case scenario for the oil rigs. They're mostly up near the coast, arrayed east-to-west along Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. If Jerry is a strong hurricane and tracks that way, it'll cause all sorts of grief.
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#1160 Postby Normandy » Thu Sep 20, 2007 3:12 am

Up late doin some work for school....took a peak at this....couple of thoughts:

Well well, where is that low that came ashore near Orlando? Folks, the setup was for a dominant surface low to establish itself over the GOM, SOUTH of Tampa, and low and behold that is what is happening. Its actually a bit farther NORTH than I thought it would establish itself (Thought it might consolidate a bit closer to Key West yesterday). Radar shows some tightening of the circulation, and pressure at Naples is falling. This surface low is basically stacked with this ULL, and once this fills in a day (maybe two) the system should be purely tropical. That leaves it a good 30 hours before it strikes land IMO (Im calling for a strike zone between Matagorda and SE LA (West of NO though, somewhere slightly east of New Iberia).

Interestingly, this scenario has panned out exactly as most mets have forecasted it....WxMan57 always said it would be till Thurs till it did anything, well thursday is here, and this morning it looks like its organizing further. Looking at radar, the low seems to be organizing due west of Naples.
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