Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Air Force Met]

Well, if your fellow Pro Met Derek Ortt and many of the models are correct, this is inland Saturday and most of your weekend is saved, right?

Yeah...I hope. I think in my gut it will be east of here...but I'm not sure if that is wishful thinking or what. I don't want to wishcast a storm away...and then not cancel the reservations in time. That's a $750 mistake.

['CaneFreak]

Well, if your fellow Pro Met Derek Ortt and many of the models are correct, this is inland Saturday and most of your weekend is saved, right?

Yeah...I hope. I think in my gut it will be east of here...but I'm not sure if that is wishful thinking or what. I don't want to wishcast a storm away...and then not cancel the reservations in time. That's a $750 mistake.

ouch....750 bucks? wow!!! I think I smell -removed-!!! LOL

[Air Force Met]

OK...going to bed guys. Gotta be fresh to make the big decisions tomorrow...

['CaneFreak]

OK...going to bed guys. Gotta be fresh to make the big decisions tomorrow...

Have a good one and THANKS a bunch for staying up with us. Talk to ya later.

[Over my head]

I think Florida needs another 88D near Naples, and while they are at it, an 88D near PBI wouldn't be bad, at the very least as backup for TBW and AMX and MLB.


Because what I'm trying to see is out of the short range view of both TBW and BYX

I was comprehending purdy good. None of these acronyms are on my list

[TSmith274]

Perhaps this storm will affect Steve Spurrier's air attack vs LSU on Saturday in Tiger Stadium.

I'm tired and going to bed. I think tomorrow will tell the tale. Looking forward to SOME certainty.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here we go kids....just like predicted. Just off SW Florida we're forming. Now, I watch and worry.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I'm not sold on either center. The one to north looks broad and the one to south still
looks more like its in the upper levels. IMO

It's transforming....The center to the SW of Florida is heading to the surface, IMO...we'll know alot more tomorrow as the day progresses.

[MGC]

My current thoughts are that the low over central Florida will dissipate and the low currently forming offshore of SW Florida will become the main low. If you take a look at the long range Key West loop there appears to be some twisting. I know that the radar beam is way high up and this is a mid level circulation att. The low over central Florida has become much more disorganized this evening IMO. My money is on SE GOM NW of Key West where I expect a tropical low to develope. Considering that this low will be futher south I would consider a landfall in central La to SE Texas......MGC

[vaffie]

I understand how the models are taking it north, but I can't help feeling bothered by the possibility of a much stronger storm on a westerly track towards SE Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Perhaps this storm will affect Steve Spurrier's air attack vs LSU on Saturday in Tiger Stadium.

I'm tired and going to bed. I think tomorrow will tell the tale. Looking forward to SOME certainty.

SEC football on CBS in feeder bands, that is what I call good times.


Night'all

[MWatkins]

Couple of quick hits...

The upper low is simply not moving tonight...and it is pushing up some decent thunderstorms that aren't getting sheared out etc.

Also...the GFS seems to average the two 850MB vort centers and take the mid point as the tracked feature. This just seems to me like the model is having trouble resolving the two...if the SW center takes over I have a had time buying that it will move quickly enough to get inland in 54 hours.

MW

['CaneFreak]

Couple of quick hits...

The upper low is simply not moving tonight...and it is pushing up some decent thunderstorms that aren't getting sheared out etc.

Also...the GFS seems to average the two 850MB vort centers and take the mid point as the tracked feature. This just seems to me like the model is having trouble resolving the two...if the SW center takes over I have a had time buying that it will move quickly enough to get inland in 54 hours.

MW

Same here MW. I agree. I think this southwest center is going to be the more potent one from the way it looks tonight. Looks to me as though the LLC over the general Naples I guess you could call it area might emerge over the water later tonight and get sucked into the deep convection and get going later on tonight and certainly by tomorrow morning. Thoughts?

TF

[BigA]

Also...the GFS seems to average the two 850MB vort centers and take the mid point as the tracked feature. This just seems to me like the model is having trouble resolving the two...if the SW center takes over I have a had time buying that it will move quickly enough to get inland in 54 hours.

Hmm...if the upper level low off SW Florida is making its way down to the surface, it seems that it could be a much more significant system than a weak low moving across Central Florida. If this thing does develop, it will be passing over some mighty warm waters, and while shear is still the 64 thousand dollar wildcard (mixed metaphor) I am unsure as to whether or not there is another system in the vecinity to shear it, if the upper level low itself works its way down to the surface.

[HouTXmetro]

Kinda quiet in here, but it appears the East Low over Florida is fading away.

[Stratosphere747]

Area is still broad.

Using radar which of course can be deceiving, there appears to be some turning to the NW of the Keys.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BYX

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?TBW

[southerngale]

0600z image after eclipse...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear is down to 8-10 knots over this system. Huge decrease in upper level shear...WOW.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO has a Louisiana landfall....skimming the La coast then up the Sabine River (TX/LA border). Hmm....

[Zardoz]

New EURO has a Louisiana landfall....skimming the La coast then up the Sabine River (TX/LA border). Hmm....

That's the very worst-case scenario for the oil rigs. They're mostly up near the coast, arrayed east-to-west along Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. If Jerry is a strong hurricane and tracks that way, it'll cause all sorts of grief.

[Normandy]

Up late doin some work for school....took a peak at this....couple of thoughts:

Well well, where is that low that came ashore near Orlando? Folks, the setup was for a dominant surface low to establish itself over the GOM, SOUTH of Tampa, and low and behold that is what is happening. Its actually a bit farther NORTH than I thought it would establish itself (Thought it might consolidate a bit closer to Key West yesterday). Radar shows some tightening of the circulation, and pressure at Naples is falling. This surface low is basically stacked with this ULL, and once this fills in a day (maybe two) the system should be purely tropical. That leaves it a good 30 hours before it strikes land IMO (Im calling for a strike zone between Matagorda and SE LA (West of NO though, somewhere slightly east of New Iberia).

Interestingly, this scenario has panned out exactly as most mets have forecasted it....WxMan57 always said it would be till Thurs till it did anything, well thursday is here, and this morning it looks like its organizing further. Looking at radar, the low seems to be organizing due west of Naples.