Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Stormcenter]

Actually it does "look" like what might
be the center is moving NW. It's just probably
my eyes playing tricks on me again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

I just ask, WHY???? Such a messy disturbance right over Florida, going from coast to coast, and only small portion of the state gets rainfall. WHY???

[Air Force Met]

I would like to see what wxman57 says now that the EURO has shifted east. What is his thinking regarding this......

Probably not much of a change...he's been saying SW LA...and that is about where the EURO is taking this.

Yea, that's what I thought. AFM, do you think we should disregard the tropical models even though they were initalized correctly? I don't understand why they're showing a northwest movement right off the back.

Are you going primarily with the EURO too?

Yes and yes.

Yes to the 1st question because this isn't in the tropics and it is in a changing flow type situation and yes to the second question because when you are in the playoffs...you want Payton Manning starting at QB (at least lately ) IT has the hot hand and until it starts rolling snake eyes...I am reluctant to bet against it and go with some other model that hasn't been performing that well. Learned my lesson after Dean.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[skysummit]

Yes and yes.

Yes to the 1st question because this isn't in the tropics and it is in a changing flow type situation and yes to the second question because when you are in the playoffs...you want Payton Manning starting at QB (at least lately ) IT has the hot hand and until it starts rolling snake eyes...I am reluctant to bet against it and go with some other model that hasn't been performing that well. Learned my lesson after Dean.

Gotcha. After Dean and Felix I told myself to always go with the EURO...at least for the rest of this season, however, when it was sitting all alone in Texas, I had my doubts. I guess we'll see if it can go 3 for 3!

[tolakram]

Closeup loop looks to be following the wrong center?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

4km loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

It doesn't look messy to me. I see what I think are low clouds to the south starting to spiral in. Opinions?

[Derek Ortt]

not looking the greatest this morning. Only have shallow convection over the center; thus, we should not see significant intensification. The UL is not going anywhere

Looks like we could have a marginal to moderate TS striking the coast on Saturday. 40% chance of development

[Sanibel]

Burst of heavy tropical rain on Sanibel. Winds from south now (barely breezes).

Center coming together in that rotation WSW of Tampa.

[skysummit]

not looking the greatest this morning. Only have shallow convection over the center; thus, we should not see significant intensification. The UL is not going anywhere

Looks like we could have a marginal to moderate TS striking the coast on Saturday. 40% chance of development

You really thought you'd wake up to a ball of convection???

[caneman]

Very disorganized. Seems to be creeping NNw not far from Tampa perhaps Sarasota. Much of the moisture got blown out NE last night. Within only about 48 hours til landfall, I would be shocked if it became anything significant.

[MWatkins]

Hmmm...

Clearly 93L is not any better organized this morning, although it is nice to see the center getting initialized correctly in the 12Z hurricane guidance.

One thing I noticed this morning is 93L...being a broad upper low and all...seems to be bending some of the stronger westerlies out of the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Yes there is still difluent flow down there...but perhaps...perhaps by deflecting the westerlies it will allow for a more favorable upper environment for anything trying to get going...say in the western Caribbean.

The GFS solution for create-a-storm development in 48 hours west of cuba seems dubious...but I wonder if it is sniffing out that disturbance down there.

Obviously will need to watch that longer...it already looks like cloud tops are starting to warm...but there were some cold cloud tops down there earlier...

MW

[Derek Ortt]

if it were my decision, all recon would be cancelled for today on this system... there is nothing to fly

[Ed Mahmoud]

Very disorganized. Seems to be creeping NNw not far from Tampa perhaps Sarasota. Much of the moisture got blown out NE last night. Within only about 48 hours til landfall, I would be shocked if it became anything significant.

And Air Force Met's plans for the weekend are not disturbed.

And Joe Bastardi gets -5 for calling Texas, but still gets a 'B' for calling for a piece of the polar trough to break off and start a non-tropical to sub-tropical development. He'd get an A-, except his suggestions of a hurricane looks a shade too aggressive.

Makes him 4.5 for 6 this season on calling development from non-purely tropical sources.

[Ed Mahmoud]

if it were my decision, all recon would be cancelled for today on this system... there is nothing to fly

I must mildly disagree. If recon finds 40 mph winds, it justifies NHC calling this a Sub-Tropical Storm, which permits watches. And if you want 36 hour lead time before bad weather starts, this fits the bill. I'm sure they'd hesitate declaring a sub-tropical cyclone without recon.


Besides, I've noticed recon reports all summer for little flights around the Northern Gulf, training missions, I assume. The distance from Biloxi to this isn't particularly far, and again, the better safe than sorry.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Possible small warmer core developing inside cold core upper low?

Look at this visible loop from ADD

Some cirrus from the storms West of EYW seems to be blowing off anti-cyclonically within the larger cyclonic envelope.

[Portastorm]

Very disorganized. Seems to be creeping NNw not far from Tampa perhaps Sarasota. Much of the moisture got blown out NE last night. Within only about 48 hours til landfall, I would be shocked if it became anything significant.

And Air Force Met's plans for the weekend are not disturbed.

And Joe Bastardi gets -5 for calling Texas, but still gets a 'B' for calling for a piece of the polar trough to break off and start a non-tropical to sub-tropical development. He'd get an A-, except his suggestions of a hurricane looks a shade too aggressive.

Makes him 4.5 for 6 this season on calling development from non-purely tropical sources.

Is this anything like calling the election with just poll survey results? I'd be careful to grade until this thing plays out.

[Derek Ortt]

I doubt there are 40 mph winds anywhere near this system. This does not justify recon today as this deos not fit the definition of a TD (a closed circulation with organized convection). We are missin the second part. Reschedule the flights for tomorrow

['CaneFreak]

Hmmm...

Clearly 93L is not any better organized this morning, although it is nice to see the center getting initialized correctly in the 12Z hurricane guidance.

One thing I noticed this morning is 93L...being a broad upper low and all...seems to be bending some of the stronger westerlies out of the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Yes there is still difluent flow down there...but perhaps...perhaps by deflecting the westerlies it will allow for a more favorable upper environment for anything trying to get going...say in the western Caribbean.

The GFS solution for create-a-storm development in 48 hours west of cuba seems dubious...but I wonder if it is sniffing out that disturbance down there.

Obviously will need to watch that longer...it already looks like cloud tops are starting to warm...but there were some cold cloud tops down there earlier...

MW

Hmmm...getting disinterested with this system already MW? LOL I think the system in the Western Carribean has a better shot than this one. At least the one in the western Carribean is not dealing directly with an upper level low. JMO

[Sanibel]

I think they'll find something at the surface, it's just that the upper is masking what is going on there. Soon the lower level will strengthen and drive the upper in response. It's getting too far from radar to pick up now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I doubt there are 40 mph winds anywhere near this system. This does not justify recon today as this deos not fit the definition of a TD (a closed circulation with organized convection). We are missin the second part. Reschedule the flights for tomorrow

I'd assume you are right about this not being the technical definition of a TD, and I'll bet as a scientist you want things to fit the rules precisely, but again, if somehow it organizes faster tonight than expected, then they'd have to skip the 'watch' step and go straight to warnings. I know, probably warnings for something less than a hurricane, but still.

Prudence suggests seeing if they find anything to justify a sub-tropical cyclone so they can start advisories.


I say that as an engineer, someone who looks at more than just the pure science, but also the costs, risks and rewards. Maybe the pure science doesn't quite say this is a true depression or minimal storm, but in the bigger picture, a small sacrifice of the science for public safety.

Edit for spelling of 'depresison'