Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Stormcenter]

When they (NHC) mean broad they mean "BROAD" circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

recon found what MOST of here knew... (at least those not on my ignore list... I saw some of those posts via quotes and I needed some comic relief after reading about Eliasen-Palm fluxes today) this does no have tropical characteristics and is just an ordinary gale center

[Nimbus]

Hasn't changed much since this morning no surprise.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42022

Pressure is still down around 1007 MB.

moving west or WNW makes sense.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[dtrain44]

I agree with Miamicanes. Even though the recon isn't going to change the picture radically, it can't hurt to get all the information possible. I don't think anyone's going to disagree with that. Of course, the cost-benefit analysis of whether th run the plane still has to happen, but I think the NHC wants to keep a very close eye on this. It's been horribly disorganized for the last three days and the NHC has still been warning people to watch the system closely in official products. They're erring on the side of caution and they're right to do so.

How strong can a subtropical system really get? I'm not too familiar with how ST cyclones intensify or what the general bounds on their intensity can be.

Edit: I know there's no subtropical depression or storm out there yet, but I'm wondering about the question in a theoretical sense.

[miamicanes177]

Vortex data message issued and shows 1005mb extrap

[RL3AO]

000
URNT12 KNHC 202004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102007
A. 20/19:32:10Z
B. 26 deg 52 min N
084 deg 14 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 18 kt
E. 082 deg 13 nm
F. 131 deg 011 kt
G. 095 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 24 C/ 249 m
J. 24 C/ 249 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF306 02IIA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 16 KT NW QUAD 19:50:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


16 kt?

[CrazyC83]

It has 24/24/22C - that looks tropical to me...

[Derek Ortt]

might not be a warm core above that though

[Portastorm]

Pardon me for what may be a stupid question ... but do we know at what speed and compass heading the "broad" low is moving?

[BrSpinDoc]

So I'm guessing what everyone's saying is I shouldn't count on my family and I spending this weekend in the FEMA trailer in my front yard here in New Orleans....

well, I wouldn't count on it right now no.

Next you'll tell me not to figure on driving down to Houma for my sons' high school football game tomorrow night, either....

LOL

Nah. Go ahead and go. Just bring wet weather gear!!!!!!

[Agua]

Latest:

Thankfully, it looks pathetic.

[RL3AO]

Pardon me for what may be a stupid question ... but do we know at what speed and compass heading the "broad" low is moving?

WNW according to the NHC.

[CrazyC83]

Hidden in the vortex message: AL102007

[RL3AO]

Hidden in the vortex message: AL102007

If I remember from earlier this season, that doesn't mean much.

[CrazyC83]

Hidden in the vortex message: AL102007

If I remember from earlier this season, that doesn't mean much.

I thought the "10" meant storm #10?

[jhamps10]

Quickscat showing well-defined circulation center that is tighter than what I can find on RAD or SAT. Wind barbs north and south of cc at 45 kts. Some increase in convection late this afternoon. Could see some gradual deepening tonight.

It's there, I had to look pretty hard to find it but, I sped up the Vis loop and there it was @26.85 N and 84.5 west

very close call on your guess. .3 north, and .4 east of your pick. Congrats!

[RL3AO]

Hidden in the vortex message: AL102007

If I remember from earlier this season, that doesn't mean much.

I thought the "10" meant storm #10?

It does, but I think that happened earlier this year after a VDM said AL062007 or something but it was kept an invest. Or maybe the VDM gives it the next storm number...or maybe they are upgrading it.

[Coredesat]

As far as I know, that number does not mean anything since the NHC didn't assign it. From the way it looks, the system has a very weak warm core, but it may be cold core above flight level. I agree with Derek's assessment.

[RL3AO]

Yeah. Think about it this way. The NHC would upgrade it to 10L after receiving the VDM not before.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I doubt an upgrade an hour after a STDS saying it wasn't organized enough to be a Sub-Tropical Depression unless recon discovered something amazing.


I still think it was a good thing recon went, at the very least won't the 0Z models have data picked fresh from the farm?