Well Organized Low Pressure SSW of Cape Verde Islands

[GeneratorPower]

I see some hints of a LLC in the most recent ascending QuikSCAT pass. Look at the region between 26W-16W and 10N-5N. Note the winds E and W of the void. It may be partially closed, but the system was largely missed.

Click here

That's an understatement. It couldn't have missed it better if it were intentionally trying to miss it.

[RL3AO]

That QS pass is 14 hours old.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,later tonight we can have a complete quickscat of the area.

[cycloneye]

You can see the rotation even in this loop that is not a closeup.

[Vortex]

Here's your long-tracker folks...Get out the maps

[Gustywind]

Really something to bears watching !!!When a wave after exiting Mama Africa is ganing convection over the water,and so more south...MMMMMMM......

Hi Huc....absolutely seems that something is boiling very south...the last week of September will be very promising if this trend continues !

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 222026
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2007

THE NEXT WAVE/TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE
MODEL BEGINS SPINNING UP SEVERAL WAVES...ONE THAT JUST CAME OFF OF AFRICA
AND ONE THAT IS YET TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SPIN-UPS ARE
NOT CERTAIN...BUT THE MODEL HAS THEM CROSSING 20 NORTH BEFORE 60
WEST AND BEFORE REACHING 45 WEST RESPECTIVELY. WILL WATCH THESE
CLOSELY. THE FIRST ONE IS EXHIBITING SOME FAIRLY GOOD TURNING NEAR
8 NORTH 23 WEST.

Interresting something to watch carefully

[CrazyC83]

This could be 96L soon at this rate...

[jhamps10]

This could be 96L soon at this rate...

actually to be honest it should be 96L right now. Looks like we've got a long tracker on our hands.

actually when I read the 95L, I thought that this was it, until I looked at the sat.

[njweather]

hmm, so basically, will this be make landfall in Houston or NOLA?

j/k, of course!

but given the community's desperation for a good storm, I expect this to be quite hyped....

Regardless, it does look good. Can anyone say anything on potential conditions in the Caribbean around when this is expected to reach the islands?

[RL3AO]

Patience young padawans. Lets see if it can hold convection for a while.

[Vortex]

Should be designated Invest anytime...All global models agree on a general westard motion the next 5 days...

[HURAKAN]

662
ABNT20 KNHC 222127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Vortex]

cycloneye, I rememeber you were getting ready to break out the tracking map before Ingrid formed as we thought that would be a long tracker..This one appears to be the REAL-DEAL!!

[RL3AO]

[njweather]

wow, that was fast...

When was the last time something that far out was given a TWO TD warning?

[RL3AO]

wow, that was fast...

When was the last time something that far out was given a TWO TD warning?

Helene last year?

[JTD]

wow, that was fast...

When was the last time something that far out was given a TWO TD warning?

Helene last year?

Yes, actually was just reading the Helene thread yesterday! The NHC was already mentioning it well it was still over Africa (halfway on and halfway off)!

So, I read just above that the global models have this moving generally westward for 5 days? So this is not a fish?

[Vortex]

very different pattern than Helene...Helene formed further north and moved wnw/nw into a weakness over the open Atlantic. The synoptics are just the opposite for this system...

[HUC]

What a two this evening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!