Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

#281 Postby **Buck** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:30 am

Wow... 1995 was when I started watching and studying the tropics... what a year to start! Roxanne was definitely one of the most interesting of that season. This one could end up with another crazy path. Schizotropical storms!

#282 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:33 am

mattpetre wrote:I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.

"SWAG alert"???

Sanibel · #283 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:34 am

I thought the area looked a little suspicious late last night and I was right!

If you have a good eye with visible satellites you could see the weak surface feature of this yesterday emerging from Yucatan just SW of that fuzzy mid-level rotation. I didn't bother to cite it because I thought shear made it moot. It convected last night and became the present system.

#284 Postby **Buck** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 am

We might have another Humberto/Ingrid thing here between this and 96L. They might be classified as TDs at the same time (I'm thinking maybe 11pm if things keep up) and then it will be a race for the names (who's Karen and who's Lorenzo?).

mattpetre · #285 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 am

Portastorm wrote:
mattpetre wrote:I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.

"SWAG alert"???

A recent terminology addition I really like SWAG = Scientific Wild Ass Guess

LaBreeze · #286 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 am

Local met mentioned this morning that this "system" should head for South Texas. We're in for a couple of wet days here in SW LA. Anyone see anything different?

#287 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:37 am

mattpetre wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
mattpetre wrote:I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.

"SWAG alert"???

A recent terminology addition I really like SWAG = Scientific Wild Ass Guess

Well, at least it has "scientific" in it! :lol:

Anything I come up with would be WAG!

#288 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:41 am

Well, at least it has "scientific" in it! Anything I come up with would be WAG!

LOL!!!!!!!!!

*edited by southerngale to fix quote

Derek Ortt · #289 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:42 am

Also, this system will require the CYA method of forecasting

#290 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:42 am

Looks very interesting.

#291 Postby **HollynLA** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:42 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Also, this system will require the CYA method of forecasting

hmmm, how exactly does that work?

#292 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:44 am

HouTXmetro · #293 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:47 am

Looking Good!!! I'm waiting on better guidance so we can see where this thing is going... ATM I would say Mexico but all bets are off with weak steerig currents.

#294 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:50 am

How long has it been back on NRL for?

SoonerMaximus · #295 Postby **SoonerMaximus** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:55 am

HURAKAN wrote:

That's definitive...

southerngale · #296 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:57 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:How long has it been back on NRL for?

I'm not exactly sure, but I posted it was back a little over 30 minutes ago, and I had refreshed it a little while before that and it still wasn't there, so probably less than an hour.

HouTXmetro · #297 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:06 am

Notice the only updated models are the BAMMS and LBAR.

#298 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:10 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Is that the ridge moving in over Florida? If so, that would push 94L west eventually. I dont know why that looks so dry, Ive got plenty of clouds here.

KWT · #299 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:15 am

This is looking good right now, won't take much for this to beocme a tropical depression. The upper winds aren't stunning for development but it wouldn't take much for it to get upto 50-60mph I'd guess. These systems are hard to forecast and its slow movement is going to cause a certain amount of upwelling as well which will slowly limit the strength of this system but i wouldn't have thought it would have such an impact for a tropical depression/storm...

Wx_Warrior · #300 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:19 am

Looks like Karen to me

Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

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