Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

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Buck
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#281 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:30 am

Wow... 1995 was when I started watching and studying the tropics... what a year to start! Roxanne was definitely one of the most interesting of that season. This one could end up with another crazy path. Schizotropical storms!
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#282 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:33 am

mattpetre wrote:I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.


"SWAG alert"???
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#283 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:34 am

I thought the area looked a little suspicious late last night and I was right!



If you have a good eye with visible satellites you could see the weak surface feature of this yesterday emerging from Yucatan just SW of that fuzzy mid-level rotation. I didn't bother to cite it because I thought shear made it moot. It convected last night and became the present system.
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#284 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 am

We might have another Humberto/Ingrid thing here between this and 96L. They might be classified as TDs at the same time (I'm thinking maybe 11pm if things keep up) and then it will be a race for the names (who's Karen and who's Lorenzo?).
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#285 Postby mattpetre » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 am

Portastorm wrote:
mattpetre wrote:I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.


"SWAG alert"???


A recent terminology addition I really like SWAG = Scientific Wild Ass Guess
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#286 Postby LaBreeze » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 am

Local met mentioned this morning that this "system" should head for South Texas. We're in for a couple of wet days here in SW LA. Anyone see anything different?
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#287 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:37 am

mattpetre wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
mattpetre wrote:I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.


"SWAG alert"???


A recent terminology addition I really like SWAG = Scientific Wild Ass Guess


Well, at least it has "scientific" in it! :lol: Anything I come up with would be WAG!
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: 11:30 AM TWO at page 13

#288 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:41 am

Well, at least it has "scientific" in it! :lol: Anything I come up with would be WAG!



LOL!!!!!!!!!





*edited by southerngale to fix quote
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Derek Ortt

#289 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:42 am

Also, this system will require the CYA method of forecasting
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#290 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:42 am

Image

Looks very interesting.
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Re:

#291 Postby HollynLA » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:42 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Also, this system will require the CYA method of forecasting


hmmm, how exactly does that work?
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#292 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:44 am

Image

Image
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#293 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:47 am

Looking Good!!! I'm waiting on better guidance so we can see where this thing is going... ATM I would say Mexico but all bets are off with weak steerig currents.
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#294 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:50 am

How long has it been back on NRL for?
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Re:

#295 Postby SoonerMaximus » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:55 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image




That's definitive...
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Re:

#296 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:57 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:How long has it been back on NRL for?


I'm not exactly sure, but I posted it was back a little over 30 minutes ago, and I had refreshed it a little while before that and it still wasn't there, so probably less than an hour.
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#297 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:06 am

Notice the only updated models are the BAMMS and LBAR.
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: Discussions & Images

#298 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:10 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Is that the ridge moving in over Florida? If so, that would push 94L west eventually. I dont know why that looks so dry, Ive got plenty of clouds here.
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#299 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:15 am

This is looking good right now, won't take much for this to beocme a tropical depression. The upper winds aren't stunning for development but it wouldn't take much for it to get upto 50-60mph I'd guess. These systems are hard to forecast and its slow movement is going to cause a certain amount of upwelling as well which will slowly limit the strength of this system but i wouldn't have thought it would have such an impact for a tropical depression/storm...
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Re: INVEST 94L: Gulf of Mexico: Discussions & Images

#300 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:19 am

Looks like Karen to me
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