Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

I call this likely accumulated truncation error to the system of equations governing the atmosphere

The Navier-Stokes do not have an exact solution. Only numerical methods, which produce exponentially propagating errors in time, can be used.

In short, never take any forecast beyond 5-7 days seriously

[terstorm1012]

The bend to the west would make sense to me with a shallower system...I am curious to know if this is what the models appear to be suggesting.

[CrazyC83]

Is that an open eye or just shear?

[deltadog03]

Ya, this is a day 10 forecast. However this is NOT the first time its showed this either.

[Cyclone1]

Is that an open eye or just shear?

It's just an exposed center of circulation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hasn't quite made landfall at 240 but on the EC Karen obviously hits Florida as a powerful storm.

Holy Friggin Crap I hope that DOES NOT verify that would be HORRIBLE I nearly Fainted looking at that

[Swimdude]

Convection re-appearing on the Northern side of the center.

[deltadog03]

That monster would for sure be a major. I think the top of the scale (45m/s) is near 100kts.

[Derek Ortt]

45 m/s is about 80KT... i m/s is 1.95KT

The Euro is above that though, so it most certainly has a Miami major hurricane

[chris_fit]

Convection re-appearing on the Northern side of the center.

If you look at the visible floater loop, between 17:15 and 18:45 (1.5 hours) there was a HUGE blow up on the northern side of the center. I never knew storms could build so quickly, wow!

[Buck]

Convection re-appearing on the Northern side of the center.

If you look at the visible floater loop, between 17:15 and 18:45 (1.5 hours) there was a HUGE blow up on the northern side of the center. I never knew storms could build so quickly, wow!

Yes, that pocket grew extremely high extremely quickly.

[cycloneye]

Someone wanted to see the latest tracks of the models so here they are.

[KWT]

Its those sorts of flare-ups that is going to buy Karen time, if it can survive the bullet over the next 72hrs then shear should relax a little more and it'll have a chance, esp as we get into the longer term.

[tolakram]

I think it's time to start hoping the shear rips Karen apart.

-- just an opinion --

Though honestly the odds of a model being even close to correct this far out probably means Miami is safe.

[deltadog03]

Your right Derek....I was thinking in mph...plus I was a bit too high...I was looking at that close up and its off the scale with white. I couldn't even guess what that would be, but your right a MAJOR for sure.

[chris_fit]

Someone wanted to see the latest tracks of the models so here they are.

Don't think those are the latest......

here are the latest.

[cycloneye]

This burst comes in time for the plane to go and find out how Karen is.

[Hurricaneman]

I think if you go by the models, everyone from the gulf to New Foundland need to keep an eye on Karen

[HURAKAN]

I would be most worried if I was in Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

As for the plane, I think it will find a nearly steady-state storm that has barely changed in intensity.