Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

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Derek Ortt

#1041 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:38 pm

I call this likely accumulated truncation error to the system of equations governing the atmosphere

The Navier-Stokes do not have an exact solution. Only numerical methods, which produce exponentially propagating errors in time, can be used.

In short, never take any forecast beyond 5-7 days seriously
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Re: KAREN: : Global & BAM Models=12z EURO at page 8

#1042 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:39 pm

The bend to the west would make sense to me with a shallower system...I am curious to know if this is what the models appear to be suggesting.
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#1043 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:40 pm

Is that an open eye or just shear?
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#1044 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:40 pm

Ya, this is a day 10 forecast. However this is NOT the first time its showed this either.
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#1045 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is that an open eye or just shear?


It's just an exposed center of circulation.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models

#1046 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:43 pm

Derecho wrote:Hasn't quite made landfall at 240 but on the EC Karen obviously hits Florida as a powerful storm.

Image



Holy Friggin Crap I hope that DOES NOT verify that would be HORRIBLE I nearly Fainted looking at that :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#1047 Postby Swimdude » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:43 pm

Convection re-appearing on the Northern side of the center.
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#1048 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:47 pm

That monster would for sure be a major. I think the top of the scale (45m/s) is near 100kts.
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Derek Ortt

#1049 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:51 pm

45 m/s is about 80KT... i m/s is 1.95KT

The Euro is above that though, so it most certainly has a Miami major hurricane
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#1050 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:51 pm

Swimdude wrote:Convection re-appearing on the Northern side of the center.


If you look at the visible floater loop, between 17:15 and 18:45 (1.5 hours) there was a HUGE blow up on the northern side of the center. I never knew storms could build so quickly, wow!
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#1051 Postby Buck » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:52 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Swimdude wrote:Convection re-appearing on the Northern side of the center.


If you look at the visible floater loop, between 17:15 and 18:45 (1.5 hours) there was a HUGE blow up on the northern side of the center. I never knew storms could build so quickly, wow!


Yes, that pocket grew extremely high extremely quickly.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: : Global & BAM Models

#1052 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:53 pm

Image

Someone wanted to see the latest tracks of the models so here they are.
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#1053 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:54 pm

Its those sorts of flare-ups that is going to buy Karen time, if it can survive the bullet over the next 72hrs then shear should relax a little more and it'll have a chance, esp as we get into the longer term.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: : Global & BAM Models

#1054 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:54 pm

I think it's time to start hoping the shear rips Karen apart.

-- just an opinion --

Though honestly the odds of a model being even close to correct this far out probably means Miami is safe.
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#1055 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:56 pm

Your right Derek....I was thinking in mph...plus I was a bit too high...I was looking at that close up and its off the scale with white. I couldn't even guess what that would be, but your right a MAJOR for sure.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: : Global & BAM Models

#1056 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

Someone wanted to see the latest tracks of the models so here they are.


Don't think those are the latest......

here are the latest.
Image
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#1057 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:56 pm

Image

This burst comes in time for the plane to go and find out how Karen is.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#1058 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:57 pm

I think if you go by the models, everyone from the gulf to New Foundland need to keep an eye on Karen
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#1059 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:58 pm

I would be most worried if I was in Bermuda.
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#1060 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:58 pm

As for the plane, I think it will find a nearly steady-state storm that has barely changed in intensity.
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