Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#441 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:37 pm

GFS coming in......0Z....initializes the low a lot more SE than I would have thought.......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 00_l.shtml
0 likes   
Top
Ed Mahmoud

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#442 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:44 pm

Bastardi did a super special Sunday video, showed WRF, no call for Gulf, exactly, but thinks 50 mph winds possible Central ECFL coast Tuesday.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#443 Postby BigA » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:47 pm

ROCK wrote:GFS coming in......0Z....initializes the low a lot more SE than I would have thought.......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 00_l.shtml


That is pretty much where the flare-up in the Bahamas is occuring right now. This could be coincidental, though. It is an area of relatively lighter shear.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#444 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:49 pm

BigA wrote:
ROCK wrote:GFS coming in......0Z....initializes the low a lot more SE than I would have thought.......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 00_l.shtml


That is pretty much where the flare-up in the Bahamas is occuring right now. This could be coincidental, though. It is an area of relatively lighter shear.




yeah its close but I was thinking it was closer to FL than that.....


heres the 24hr GFS. Low over Cuba.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#445 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:50 pm

BigA,

I thought exactly the same thing...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#446 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:52 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif


low now in the CGOM......
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#447 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:55 pm

ROCK wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054l.gif


low now in the CGOM......



Has Karen in the corner too..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#448 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:56 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml


sure looks like not a lot of shear out there on this run.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#449 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:57 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054l.gif


low now in the CGOM......



Has Karen in the corner too..



Sure does and the 315 utc IR shows a ball of convection forming as shear is dropping off. Also, GFS at +54 shows a favorable upper-air pattern
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#450 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:57 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif


looks rather weak...also
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#451 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:02 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif


is that X-Karen in the Carib?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#452 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:04 pm

no rock its NNE of San Juan at H+84 moving WNW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#453 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:05 pm

Vortex wrote:no rock its about 120 miles NNE of San Juan at H+84 moving WNW



got it....thanks....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#454 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:08 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Duddy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#455 Postby Duddy » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:14 pm

ROCK wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_096l.gif


Texas coast? Or is it turning North there?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#456 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:14 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif



weakens the low and takes it into sw LA.......very similar to the last run....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#457 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:14 pm

Duddy wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_096l.gif


Texas coast? Or is it turning North there?



:uarrow: :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#458 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:17 pm

00Z Canadian brings a 1001mb low across S.FL monday night/Tue

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_100.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#459 Postby MGC » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:46 pm

I don't see anything coming out of this. Weak at best. Lots of shear over the basin....MGC
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

#460 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Oct 01, 2007 12:04 am

Here we go again: I think it's headed here (TX) or there (LA). What is heading where? When has it developed? Model Phantasia season 07 - GITCHA ONE
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: mixedDanilo.E and 200 guests