Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

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Frank2
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#21 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 01, 2007 12:40 pm

Yes, very true - some don't realize that in 2005, had it not been for a mid-Atlantic trough, many could have been exposed to an additonal 5-8 tropical storms or hurricanes, so, it's true that it's not correct to compare any other season (except for 1933, perhaps) with 2005...

As you said, current conditions might change, or the TUTT feature might remain for the rest of the season, but, for each week that passes, it becomes less likely that conditions will become more tranquil (at least for hurricanes, since, bullies though they are, they require tranquil conditions for them to thrive)...
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#22 Postby DanKellFla » Mon Oct 01, 2007 9:29 pm

But we are having a busy season. 13 named storms, 2 Cat 5s that made landfall and 2 Cat 1s. Now the states have had a thankfully dull season, but Mexico will be feeling the effects of this season for many years.
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Derek Ortt

#23 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 01, 2007 9:52 pm

This has been anything but a badly predicted season. How can anyone say this has been badly predicted

We have had 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 cat 5's. Closing in on the 12 year average season and likely will exceed it
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#24 Postby Category 5 » Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:00 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Here it is:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0930.html

I see three badly predicted seasons:

2005, 2006 and 2007.

Think long and hard about 2005....


It's all been a wake up call to just how little we know, and how unpredictable the tropics can be. Thats what makes it intresting.
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

#25 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:29 pm

Personally, I am tired of the claims that this season is "dull". Lately, the post-2005 generation seems to expect an intense hurricane striking the United States every year as the norm. I think more people should have conversed with the (now gone) John Hope and other veteran experts. Face the reality: overall, a major hurricane landfall (singular event!) is an unusual event in any given year. The ridiculous concentration of hurricane landfalls (especially +Category 3) in the United States during 2003-2005 was nearly unprecedented by all standards. Additionally, I don't consider 2007 a "dull" year even for the United States. Humberto certainly wasn't a Katrina or Andrew (insert intense landfalling hurricane here), but you should tell that fact to the people in SE Texas. The pre-shore intensification rate was incredible by all accounts. Don't forget Erin, too - it actually strengthened to a possible TS/STS over land in OK, where it caused TS force gusts and heavy precipitation. Please stop the doom and gloom hype (it's a pre-2004 fad), and don't dismiss the potential impacts of some "less consequential" systems.

Secondly, we have forgotten that the "lowly" storms (i.e. those forgettable tropical storms and TD 10 reduxes) make up the "bulk" of most seasons, including above average years. In fact, history indicates that many seasons (including all seasons from 1995-2007) may not have reached their final totals without the "distributor" systems. I'm talking about the fishy tropical storms and abundant weak systems. We tend to focus on the landfalls, hurricanes, and intense storms, but we overlook the Arlenes, Lees, and TD 10 copy cats that really boost those seasonal final numbers. If you don't believe me, check your tropical history in the NOAA best track database, Monthly Weather Review, and other good sources for historical climatology (including recent seasons). 2007 may have featured more short-lived tropical storms, and the higher shear is unusual in a Nina year, but the basic premise remains the same: the abundance of weaker systems (relative to hurricanes and intense storms) is relatively normal in most seasons!

This has been reiterated in other posts, but two Category 5 hurricanes in a single year is astounding, especially when you consider the fact that they made landfall at that rare intensity. Dean and Felix actually intensified prior to their landfalls in Mexico and Nicaragua. If you think 2006 and 2007 have been infested with shear, look back at 1997 (strong El Nino year). We saw eight named systems (fewer than '06) and +50 kts of shear in the Caribbean during the season's peak! Additionally, the '70s, '80s, and early '90s would completely kill this tropical-oriented board today. The majority of those decades featured very few United States landfalls, while most seasons featured totals below 9 NS. Finally, 13 NS (by October 1) is extremely impressive; while I don't expect more than 16 NS, we could certainly see two more systems in this La Nina year. Weak systems may seem insignificant, but they still count for the totals (ask the true renowned experts at the NHC - don't bash them).

I'm voicing a view contrary to the majority, but I wasn't deeply affected by the slow '06 year and '07 "lull".
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

#26 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:44 pm

By the way, my post wasn't an attempt to insult Frank2 and others who believe the season is finished. I appreciate their input, too. I was merely adding some perspective to recent posts.

-Miami
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Re: Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

#27 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 01, 2007 11:46 pm

I think you are ignoring the dryness of these marginal storms. It's one thing to say numbers count, but when people say rain is the problem with lower intensity storms and they don't even have that you have to start admitting this isn't a normal year.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

#28 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 01, 2007 11:55 pm

Good year for weak systems to form and be destroyed. That is about all. I'm not forgetting about the ones that do and have made it big,. But it is interesting that "most" of them waited intill very close to the coast. Interesting.
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Re: Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

#29 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Oct 02, 2007 12:14 am

2005 was an active season and it should be in its own category. 2007 is different from 2005.
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Re: Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

#30 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:04 am

Per what Derek said, this is why NOAA's public forecast at the beginning of the season, needs to be taken with the understanding that they consider the totals for the entire basin (which ranges from the Panama Canal Zone to Portugal) - not just for systems that affect the United States...

So, while thankfully it has been a North America season (so far) without landfalling hurricanes (except for a short-fused Hurricane Lorenzo), the Carribbean has been busy, in as far as it seeing two Category 5 hurricanes pass through that region...

Still, I disagree at the totals - while we have had 13 named systems, only two were major hurricanes, while two others were short-lived (< 12 h) hurricanes, with the remainder being sheared tropical storms or depressions, so, it's fair to say it's been an uneven (not unfair, just uneven) kind of season...

Incidentially, hopefully I would never say it is (or was) a dull season - it'd be pretty dull of me to say something like that...

LOL
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