INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Normandy]

Look stormcenter I don't want to get off topic here, but honestly Masters is not over-hyping this situation. The potential IS there for this to become a potent storm, and it does have model support. All meteorological factors point to this system developing....will it for sure? No....will it likely develop? Yes....and if it does it won't exactly encounter hostile conditions for deepening. All of this + model support point to the formation of a TC, which merits concern.

If Master's over-hyped this situation, then you are guilty of under-hyping it.

[Stormcenter]

Look stormcenter I don't want to get off topic here, but honestly Masters is not over-hyping this situation. The potential IS there for this to become a potent storm, and it does have model support. All meteorological factors point to this system developing....will it for sure? No....will it likely develop? Yes....and if it does it won't exactly encounter hostile conditions for deepening. All of this + model support point to the formation of a TC, which merits concern.

If Master's over-hyped this situation, then you are guilty of under-hyping it.

Your points are well taken and as I always say "We shall see". Thanks for the replies.

[MGC]

Rather disorganized this morning....doubt anything happens until it reaches the NW Carb....MGC

[mightyerick]

Stormcenetr.... do you think that if the center reforms far south, like between Cuba and Jamaica, the chances of developing will increase or they will fall down???

[stormchazer]

Stormcenter, I am not sure if this will become anything or not, but are you suggesting that Dr Master's and his Doctorate do not carry some validity in this discussion? I really did not see him hyping anything, just offering his expert opinion of the situation.

[Derek Ortt]

I am a little less impressed with thw ahcnaces for development this morning. The upper ridge is a little smaller than expected (not a surprise since the models cannot forecats shear to save their lives) and no concentrated low is forming.

maybe soemthing will start to get going on Sunday in the Carib... but now I am only giving this aa 20-30% chance of developing (down from about 40 yesterday)

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter, I am not sure if this will become anything or not, but are you suggesting that Dr Master's and his Doctorate do not carry some validity in this discussion? I really did not see him hyping anything, just offering his expert opinion of the situation.

As I stated before I really do like his posts and do not question his knowledge.
Who am I to anyway? I only questioned his belief that 92L would become a hurricane
based on what is out there right now which to be honest with you was more impressive looking yesterday as will all can agree to. Hey look even the NHC agrees with me. They don't even mention it becoming a TD anymore. Yes I know things can change but as of now I don't see 92L's future as impressively as Mr. Masters. Hey its just my opinion of the current situation.

[cycloneye]

There you have the 12z GFS run.Any comments about it? Front does not get it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to agree with derek ortt on this one. The shear is just causing all heck on all systems this year. I'm not saying we could not have a few more sheared systems this year, and I'm not saying this could not develop into one of them. But don't think this will be very big.

[Steve H.]

12Z Canadien has 92L cut SW across the tip of Florida, then to New Orleans (or thereabouts) as a cane. It shows another low form and landfall in that same area on the 10th I think the models are really struggling to get a handle on the shear component (humanizing the models!), but at 48-96 hours, it seems that shear in the basin decreases significantly. We'll see. Right now none of the lows can get their act together, and the GFS shows nothing of significance out to day 10. Give it a few days and we'll see if the upper levels settle down.

[wxman57]

Stormcenter, I am not sure if this will become anything or not, but are you suggesting that Dr Master's and his Doctorate do not carry some validity in this discussion? I really did not see him hyping anything, just offering his expert opinion of the situation.

As I stated before I really do like his posts and do not question his knowledge.
Who am I to anyway? I only questioned his belief that 92L would become a hurricane
based on what is out there right now which to be honest with you was more impressive looking yesterday as will all can agree to. Hey look even the NHC agrees with me. They don't even mention it becoming a TD anymore. Yes I know things can change but as of now I don't see 92L's future as impressively as Mr. Masters. Hey its just my opinion of the current situation.

Just remember that the NHC is only looking out through tomorrow when they talk about development. They don't provide a 3-5 day (or 7-day) discussion of potential development. If they did, then they'd probably mention a chance that this disturbance could become a hurricane. As I've said, it won't have much chance of developing until it reaches near western Cuba in the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Channel. Once there, it appears that upper-level winds may be quite favorable for development/intensification. You're putting too much emphasis on what it looks like today, which really doesn't matter. High pressure to its northwest is producing too much shear for at least the next 48-72 hours.

[cycloneye]

Agree 57,that if any development occurs here,it will be in the NW Caribbean and not near the Bahamas area.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

TAFB 72 hour surface forecast:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
With 96 hour position of 92L just north of the Yucatan as a possible tropical cyclone.

[hurricanetrack]

Sorry for the one-liner, but it is at least appropriate to this situation:

and so we wait...

[fci]

I am also a devotee of climatology and direct much of my thinking in that direction unless there is something compelling to adjust that thought process.

In the case of 92L, the fact that wxman57 and Derek are bullish on its development leans me towards eskewing climatology. However, the prospects for this to be a Carib development and NOT the Bahamas fits climatology a whole lot more.

A development in the Bahamas tracking SW ACROSS Cuba from the Northeast is way contrary to climatology and I discounted that possibility even though Pros mentioned it.

If this consolidates south of Cuba, it makes total sense to me and my leanings towards climatology.

As for Dr. Masters; I treat what he says with the respect that I give to ALL Pro Mets; even JB.

JB is whole subject on his own and is a lightning rod here I think because of the reverence that some pay him; like he is a genie and knows all. He is wrong like most Pro's and proabably as consistently as other Pro Mets are apt to be in this imperfect, unpredictable science.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I still can't get why everyone is looking at the model runs when nothing has formed.

[chadtm80]

I still can't get why everyone is looking at the model runs when nothing has formed.

For Guidence. Thats what the models are run for. They obviously do not have the best handle on a system when it hasnt formed yet, but it still takes key things into account and gives you an "idea" at least.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



For those who always like to see the CMC runs,above is the 12z run.Last night it had a cat 4 moving thru the GOM.What it has today,find out at link.

[tolakram]

12z CMC



For those who always like to see the CMC runs,above is the 12z run.Last night it had a cat 4 moving thru the GOM.What it has today,find out at link.

Ouch, that's just cruel.

[Derek Ortt]

I still can't get why everyone is looking at the model runs when nothing has formed.

I, to be honest, do not get that post. it is contradictory to every accepted meteorological practice. One must look at the models prior to formation. A global model forms its own center... it does not need one to be artifically placed in the model