CrazyC83 wrote:Surprisingly still no watches...
That´s what i thought right in this moment.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
RL3AO wrote:Probabilities for watch 722:
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes: Mod (30%)
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN IL INTO INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181844Z - 182045Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. AN
ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE TURNS THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE AIDING INITIATION
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THIS
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND...STRENGTHENING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ILLINOIS/
INDIANA.
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BENEATH 90+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB POLAR JET...WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT 850 FLOW...LIKELY TO BACK FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE INDIANAPOLIS IND AREA DURING THE 18/21Z- 19/00Z
TIME FRAME. BUT...ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD...EITHER SIDE OF
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER AREA...INTO THE GREATER CHICAGO
METROPOLITAN AREA.
..KERR.. 10/18/2007
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