Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[Bunkertor]

Surprisingly still no watches...

That´s what i thought right in this moment.

[tidesong]

I am shocked that there's no watch out yet. It's shaping up to be an interesting afternoon...quite windy and quite sunny right now.

And, hi everyone. I've been gone for quite some time.

[CrazyC83]

So many unknowns about this since this is a complex mixture of a deepening low which has absorbed the remnants of a tropical system...no real analogs to work from...

[RL3AO]

I think today could be really bad. But it is probably just a gut feeling.

[JonathanBelles]

I have gut feeling for the EC and I also think that this should have had a tornado watch

[CrazyC83]

The only thing keeping this from being a HIGH risk situation IMO is the wild card regarding the tropical low being absorbed - how will it act in this situation?

[CrazyC83]

Storms seem to be trying to develop across the Mississippi Valley...I would expect a Tornado Watch (likely PDS) shortly.

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
MSC025-105-181830-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0088.071018T1802Z-071018T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
102 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WEST POINT...
NORTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 102 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR MULDROW...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF STARKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEST POINT BY 115 PM CDT...

[crm6360]

it's not high risk because instability is rather limited.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
116 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

MSC025-181830-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0088.000000T0000Z-071018T1830Z/
CLAY MS-
116 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR CLAY
COUNTY...

AT 116 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR TIBBEE...OR ABOUT NEAR WEST POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEST POINT BY 125 PM CDT...

AN OBSERVER AT THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AIRPORT REPORTED A TORNADO 10
MILES WEST OF THE AIRPORT AT 1255 PM.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3367 8849 3365 8851 3364 8849 3350 8865
3351 8867 3355 8866 3357 8873 3368 8863
3369 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 230DEG 13KT 3355 8862

$$

MME

[RL3AO]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
129 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LYNN HAVEN...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LYNN HAVEN...OR ABOUT
12 MILES WEST OF PANAMA CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LYNN HAVEN BY 155 PM CDT...

-----

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
128 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ALC075-181845-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0134.000000T0000Z-071018T1845Z/
LAMAR AL-
128 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
LAMAR COUNTY...

AT 125 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR BEAVERTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY AT 140 PM CDT

[Bunkertor]

All right. Watch ist out

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS LOWER MS/TN VALLEY HAS BECOME
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND INTENSITY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

A bit surprised it is not a PDS watch, but it seems to be south of the main threat area according to the SPC...

[RL3AO]

Probabilities for watch 722:
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes: Mod (30%)

[CrazyC83]

Probabilities for watch 722:
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes: Mod (30%)

The 30 is too low for a PDS though, but that may be conservative...

[CrazyC83]

Warnings starting to come out in a hurry now...

[RL3AO]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
BAY COUNTY...

AT 135 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TWO WATERSPOUTS JUST
OFFSHORE FROM PANAMA CITY BEACH. THESE WATERSPOUTS WERE MOVING
TOWARD THE COAST AND EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE SHORTLY AS A TORNADO.
THESE WATERSPOUTS WERE ALSO LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF PANAMA
CITY...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN NEAR...
CENTRAL BAY COUNTY THROUGH 2 PM CDT...

[Bunkertor]

[RL3AO]

This will be the PDS watch IMO.

Code: Select all

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN IL INTO INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 181844Z - 182045Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  AN
   ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE TURNS THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
   TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE AIDING INITIATION
   OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  THIS
   FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AND...STRENGTHENING UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ILLINOIS/
   INDIANA. 
   
   MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR BENEATH 90+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB POLAR JET...WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT 850 FLOW...LIKELY TO BACK FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
   SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
   THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   ILLINOIS THROUGH THE INDIANAPOLIS IND AREA DURING THE 18/21Z- 19/00Z
   TIME FRAME.  BUT...ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD...EITHER SIDE OF
   THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER AREA...INTO THE GREATER CHICAGO
   METROPOLITAN AREA.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/18/2007