Hurricane LOrenzo Report on pdf
6 deaths are related to Hurricane Lorenzos landfall in Mexico at 65kts.The peak of Lorenzo was 70kts.
Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145847
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145847
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
RL3AO wrote:Well, we know the NHC hasn't been wasting their time with the lack of recent tropical activity.
Yes,they are working on the reports full time as there is nothing going on.Maybe they will finish all before October is out.
I am interested in Karen,to see if they upgrade it to hurricane ( I say is a given Karen will be upgraded) and Humberto to see if they upgrade it to cat 2.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report
I want to see if they keep Felix and Dean as Category 5s at landfall.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34005
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report
HurricaneBill wrote:I want to see if they keep Felix and Dean as Category 5s at landfall.
I'm sure they will. I haven't paid much attention to the tropics the last few days due to all the severe weather...
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1289
- Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:26 pm
- Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire, UK
- Contact:
Re:
Coredesat wrote:I see no reason why they wouldn't, really, given that the final recon missions on both (which reconfirmed both storms' Category 5 status) were done as they made landfall.
Wrong. Recon didn't reach Felix in time. The Cat5 intensity was based solely on satellite imagery.
0 likes
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: Re:
WmE wrote:Coredesat wrote:I see no reason why they wouldn't, really, given that the final recon missions on both (which reconfirmed both storms' Category 5 status) were done as they made landfall.
Wrong. Recon didn't reach Felix in time. The Cat5 intensity was based solely on satellite imagery.
The RECON did measure 155 mph a few hours before Felix made landfall, and after the plane left the hurricane became better organized, therefore, it was very likely a Cat. 5 at landfall.
0 likes
Dean was most certainly a Category 5 at landfall, and I am interested to see what they assign his winds at landfall. A post over at Easternuswx confirmed a SFMR measurement in Felix (Guys works for HRD or something that posted it) that indicated surface winds of 165 kts in Felix (was taken when the plane turned back due to turbulence). There were similar measurements in Dean, with one SFMR measurement of 120 kts in the southern eyewall from SFMR. Flight level winds reduced to 145 kts at the surface (using 90% reduction)...Data suggests Dean could be anywhere from 145-160 kts at landfall...solid Category 5.
Likewise, Felix also most certainly was a Category 5 at landfall...When recon measured the 155 mph it looked far worse than it did when striking Nicaragua. Its hard to say what the winds were at landfall though.
And again, Erin most certainly was a Tropical Storm over Oklahoma. It was warm core, and surface obs of 40-50 sustained was measured. How weird is that? A deepening TS over OK? Crazy.
Sorry to go off topic.
I agree with the Lorenzo report.
Likewise, Felix also most certainly was a Category 5 at landfall...When recon measured the 155 mph it looked far worse than it did when striking Nicaragua. Its hard to say what the winds were at landfall though.
And again, Erin most certainly was a Tropical Storm over Oklahoma. It was warm core, and surface obs of 40-50 sustained was measured. How weird is that? A deepening TS over OK? Crazy.
Sorry to go off topic.
I agree with the Lorenzo report.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34005
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Full agreement with Lorenzo - nothing really to support any changes.
My guess is that Felix's peak intensity was 155 kt and the pressure at that point was 926mb. That takes into account the fact he was still strengthening rapidly after the flight was aborted (at 145 kt/934mb). My guess for Felix at landfall is 145 kt/933mb.
As for Dean, I think the 906mb pressure and 145 kt winds are correct, maybe 150 kt depending on how they think the pressure works out to.
The other big question mark is Karen - I think 70 kt at peak taking in account structural changes before the 62 kt SFMR reading was recorded.
My guess is that Felix's peak intensity was 155 kt and the pressure at that point was 926mb. That takes into account the fact he was still strengthening rapidly after the flight was aborted (at 145 kt/934mb). My guess for Felix at landfall is 145 kt/933mb.
As for Dean, I think the 906mb pressure and 145 kt winds are correct, maybe 150 kt depending on how they think the pressure works out to.
The other big question mark is Karen - I think 70 kt at peak taking in account structural changes before the 62 kt SFMR reading was recorded.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ulf, weatherSnoop and 28 guests