Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report

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cycloneye
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Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:11 pm

Hurricane LOrenzo Report on pdf

6 deaths are related to Hurricane Lorenzos landfall in Mexico at 65kts.The peak of Lorenzo was 70kts.
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#2 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:28 pm

Well, we know the NHC hasn't been wasting their time with the lack of recent tropical activity.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:57 pm

RL3AO wrote:Well, we know the NHC hasn't been wasting their time with the lack of recent tropical activity.


Yes,they are working on the reports full time as there is nothing going on.Maybe they will finish all before October is out.

I am interested in Karen,to see if they upgrade it to hurricane ( I say is a given Karen will be upgraded) and Humberto to see if they upgrade it to cat 2.
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Re: Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report

#4 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:47 pm

I want to see if they keep Felix and Dean as Category 5s at landfall.
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Re: Hurricane Lorenzo Cyclone Report

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:16 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:I want to see if they keep Felix and Dean as Category 5s at landfall.


I'm sure they will. I haven't paid much attention to the tropics the last few days due to all the severe weather...
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Coredesat

#6 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:25 pm

I see no reason why they wouldn't, really, given that the final recon missions on both (which reconfirmed both storms' Category 5 status) were done as they made landfall.
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 20, 2007 12:38 am

I wonder what they are going to do to Dean through the Lesser Antilles. The prelim BT files suggest that the winds were higher than 85KT when it struck Martinique
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#8 Postby Cryomaniac » Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:57 am

I'd be interested to see whether they say Erin was a TS over Oklahoma!
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Re:

#9 Postby WmE » Sat Oct 20, 2007 6:28 am

Coredesat wrote:I see no reason why they wouldn't, really, given that the final recon missions on both (which reconfirmed both storms' Category 5 status) were done as they made landfall.


Wrong. Recon didn't reach Felix in time. The Cat5 intensity was based solely on satellite imagery.
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Re: Re:

#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:35 am

WmE wrote:
Coredesat wrote:I see no reason why they wouldn't, really, given that the final recon missions on both (which reconfirmed both storms' Category 5 status) were done as they made landfall.


Wrong. Recon didn't reach Felix in time. The Cat5 intensity was based solely on satellite imagery.


The RECON did measure 155 mph a few hours before Felix made landfall, and after the plane left the hurricane became better organized, therefore, it was very likely a Cat. 5 at landfall.
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#11 Postby Normandy » Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:33 pm

Dean was most certainly a Category 5 at landfall, and I am interested to see what they assign his winds at landfall. A post over at Easternuswx confirmed a SFMR measurement in Felix (Guys works for HRD or something that posted it) that indicated surface winds of 165 kts in Felix (was taken when the plane turned back due to turbulence). There were similar measurements in Dean, with one SFMR measurement of 120 kts in the southern eyewall from SFMR. Flight level winds reduced to 145 kts at the surface (using 90% reduction)...Data suggests Dean could be anywhere from 145-160 kts at landfall...solid Category 5.

Likewise, Felix also most certainly was a Category 5 at landfall...When recon measured the 155 mph it looked far worse than it did when striking Nicaragua. Its hard to say what the winds were at landfall though.


And again, Erin most certainly was a Tropical Storm over Oklahoma. It was warm core, and surface obs of 40-50 sustained was measured. How weird is that? A deepening TS over OK? Crazy.


Sorry to go off topic.
I agree with the Lorenzo report.
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#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 21, 2007 7:18 pm

Full agreement with Lorenzo - nothing really to support any changes.

My guess is that Felix's peak intensity was 155 kt and the pressure at that point was 926mb. That takes into account the fact he was still strengthening rapidly after the flight was aborted (at 145 kt/934mb). My guess for Felix at landfall is 145 kt/933mb.

As for Dean, I think the 906mb pressure and 145 kt winds are correct, maybe 150 kt depending on how they think the pressure works out to.

The other big question mark is Karen - I think 70 kt at peak taking in account structural changes before the 62 kt SFMR reading was recorded.
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