South of Jamaica in Caribbean

[boca]

Does that look like another ULL forming down there moving west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[GCANE]

It sure does. The UL Wind barbs confirm it.

It is pulling moisture out of the ITCZ on it east flank and firing convection.

More likely, there will be no tropical development under this as it moves to the west Caribbean.

[GCANE]

Since I am new, I didn't know if it is proper to start a new thread about this. I thought I might, since it seems independent from the system NE of the PR. My apologies if I made a mistake and should have stuck with that thread. I am trying to understand the S2K protocols and hopefully I can gain some insight from the great posters here. I am very impressed with expertise and standards of the S2K Forums.

Anyway, NAM shows a system developing in the Mid Caribbean to 1000mb by Saturday off the east Honduras coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml



This appears to be associated with a plume of moist air rising out of the ITCZ, tagged as a trough, due to a Low in the EPac off the Honduras coast. There may be some interacation of this with an advancing cold-front sweeping down from the GOM. There is also some convection firing SE of Jamaica with some well defined UL Divergence.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html





QuikSCAT is currently eclipsed over this area.

Shear is dropping in the area north of Panama and is currently running nearly 0 to 20 knots, depending on location.



A weak UL Ridge is over this:

[GCANE]

Reading NHC's 8:05AM TWD:

A 1009mb surface-low at 12N 77W is associated with the convection SE of Jamaica.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1033.shtml?

[GCANE]

Some sort of surface-low or trough seems to be spinning weakly at 12N 77W when seen on Vis Sat. Not much convection over it however.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 12&lon=-77

[Sanibel]

Detecting spin in this area. Possibly mid-level vortex.

[cycloneye]

11:30 AM TWO

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

11:30 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I merged the GCANE topic with this one that was posted on monday for the same area.

[wxman57]

Low to mid-level steering would take it northward across Cuba in an environment of steadily-increasing wind shear over the next 2 days. Though I can see a weak MLC near 14.5N/75W, I don't think it'll be around long enough to develop. Fairly strong trof approaching from the west, with strong S-SSW winds aloft.

[GCANE]

NHC's 11:30AM TWO is highlighting Area 2:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[GCANE]

QuikSCAT just got a shot of the area at 15:52Z. Looks like a broad, weak surface-low circulation north of Panama / Costa Rica.

[cycloneye]

That quickscat pass was at 7:18 AM EDT.You have to look at the purple little numbers at the bottom.

[GCANE]

Cycloneye:

Thanks for pointing out the correct QuikSCAT time.

Looks like the 12N 77W surface-low that NHC mentioned this morning may be firing some convection over it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 12&lon=-77

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 12&lon=-77

[wxman57]

Any low center appears to be aloft and closer to 14N/74.5W. Convection not impressive and it's moving northward into increasing shear.

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[GCANE]

WV shows the Low over Honduras pulling up some fresh and higher Theta-E air from the ITCZ in Panama and pushing it to the area south of Jamaica. I suspect this area will flare back up on Thursday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html



THe UL Ridge is still intact:

[GCANE]

This morning's 10:50Z QuikSCAT shot shows a surface trough running nearly east-west along 15N from the coast of Honduras:



UL Divergence exists north of this:



And 850mb Vorticity appears to slowly be building:



Shear is still high over the trough:



But the Honduras Low is pullling up high Theta-E air from the ITCZ, while at the same time generating the shear.

[Sanibel]

Though there isn't any visible surface feature, I'm watching that Aruba wave because it is in a favorable area of the basin for 2007 where Felix spun up.