South of Jamaica in Caribbean

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boca
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South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#1 Postby boca » Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:14 am

Does that look like another ULL forming down there moving west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#2 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:25 am

It sure does. The UL Wind barbs confirm it.

It is pulling moisture out of the ITCZ on it east flank and firing convection.

More likely, there will be no tropical development under this as it moves to the west Caribbean.
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Mid Caribbean System=11:30 AM TWO posted

#3 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:42 am

Since I am new, I didn't know if it is proper to start a new thread about this. I thought I might, since it seems independent from the system NE of the PR. My apologies if I made a mistake and should have stuck with that thread. I am trying to understand the S2K protocols and hopefully I can gain some insight from the great posters here. I am very impressed with expertise and standards of the S2K Forums.

Anyway, NAM shows a system developing in the Mid Caribbean to 1000mb by Saturday off the east Honduras coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Image

This appears to be associated with a plume of moist air rising out of the ITCZ, tagged as a trough, due to a Low in the EPac off the Honduras coast. There may be some interacation of this with an advancing cold-front sweeping down from the GOM. There is also some convection firing SE of Jamaica with some well defined UL Divergence.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Image

Image

QuikSCAT is currently eclipsed over this area.

Shear is dropping in the area north of Panama and is currently running nearly 0 to 20 knots, depending on location.

Image

A weak UL Ridge is over this:

Image
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Re: Mid Caribbean System

#4 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:16 am

Reading NHC's 8:05AM TWD:

A 1009mb surface-low at 12N 77W is associated with the convection SE of Jamaica.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1033.shtml?
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Re: Mid Caribbean System

#5 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 9:47 am

Some sort of surface-low or trough seems to be spinning weakly at 12N 77W when seen on Vis Sat. Not much convection over it however.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 12&lon=-77
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#6 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:03 am

Detecting spin in this area. Possibly mid-level vortex.
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Re: Mid Caribbean System

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:14 am

11:30 AM TWO

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:16 am

11:30 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


I merged the GCANE topic with this one that was posted on monday for the same area.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean=11:30 AM TWO posted

#9 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:21 am

Low to mid-level steering would take it northward across Cuba in an environment of steadily-increasing wind shear over the next 2 days. Though I can see a weak MLC near 14.5N/75W, I don't think it'll be around long enough to develop. Fairly strong trof approaching from the west, with strong S-SSW winds aloft.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#10 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:29 am

NHC's 11:30AM TWO is highlighting Area 2:

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#11 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:38 am

QuikSCAT just got a shot of the area at 15:52Z. Looks like a broad, weak surface-low circulation north of Panama / Costa Rica.

Image
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:42 am

:uarrow: That quickscat pass was at 7:18 AM EDT.You have to look at the purple little numbers at the bottom.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#13 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:48 pm

Cycloneye:

Thanks for pointing out the correct QuikSCAT time.

Looks like the 12N 77W surface-low that NHC mentioned this morning may be firing some convection over it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 12&lon=-77

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 12&lon=-77
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#14 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:58 pm

Any low center appears to be aloft and closer to 14N/74.5W. Convection not impressive and it's moving northward into increasing shear.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:21 pm

5:30 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2007 9:15 pm

10:30 PM TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#17 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2007 9:18 pm

WV shows the Low over Honduras pulling up some fresh and higher Theta-E air from the ITCZ in Panama and pushing it to the area south of Jamaica. I suspect this area will flare back up on Thursday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Image

THe UL Ridge is still intact:

Image

Image
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#18 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:52 am

This morning's 10:50Z QuikSCAT shot shows a surface trough running nearly east-west along 15N from the coast of Honduras:

Image

UL Divergence exists north of this:

Image

And 850mb Vorticity appears to slowly be building:

Image

Shear is still high over the trough:

Image

But the Honduras Low is pullling up high Theta-E air from the ITCZ, while at the same time generating the shear.

Image
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Re: South of Jamaica in Caribbean

#19 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:41 am

Though there isn't any visible surface feature, I'm watching that Aruba wave because it is in a favorable area of the basin for 2007 where Felix spun up.
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