South Caribbean Disturbance

[Sanibel]

This disturbance has fast inflow. I'm not saying it will develop, it's just the only thing in town and should be watched in case it moves north:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

[HURAKAN]

Sanibel, could you change the title to something more representative than "Panama." Maybe "Disturbance in the southern Caribbean" or "Disturbance near Nicaragua/Costa Rica."

[Sanibel]

Like many 2007 disturbances, this shows both interesting signs of potential and possible nothing-ness as well. Like the convection emerging from Colombia to join it for instance.

[Sanibel]

Although this is close to Panama for development, there is still weak inflow going north to south from the Caribbean towards this disturbance. Has to be watched til it disappears.

[Frank2]

True, though the season down there is almost year round, in a sense - I don't have time to search for it, but, sometime in the 1920's there was a destructive Cat 4 in late January somewhere in the southern or southeast Caribbean...

[dtrain44]

11:30 TWO says that winds aren't favorable at this time.....story of the season.

[Squarethecircle]

Interestingly enough, some of the recent GFS runs have developed it, as well as NOGAPS and UKMET. I personally think this thing is too close to land and too far away from favorable conditions to do much of anything; might at its peak make INVEST status.

[RL3AO]

I don't know how many times I will be able to use this again this year so here we go.

[wxman57]

Development chances pretty close to zero. Just normal late-season convection in the SW Caribbean as the ITCZ moves southward.

[cycloneye]

From the 7:05 PM EST TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE W PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE PACIFIC
SIDE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...AND ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA. THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS AIDING IN THE FORMATION
OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF
20-25 KT ARE BLOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRMED THESE FORCE WINDS. MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW IN THIS AREA.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[artist]

seems one of the models may be seeing something there as well, this is under storm 50 which I have noticed they will use until they are convinced there is really something being seen by some of the models(or that has been my conclusion go storm 50)

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_50.gif

[caribepr]

I'm counting on you all to keep an eye on this...reminds me of Wrong Way Lenny (of course, at this time of year, anything in that area reminds me of Lenny)

[Gustywind]

I'm counting on you all to keep an eye on this...reminds me of Wrong Way Lenny (of course, at this time of year, anything in that area reminds me of Lenny)

yeah absolutely Mother Nature is so versatile it could be suspect too...and at this period i won't forget Lenny caribpr for sure... .

[Squarethecircle]

Everything is nice about this except the conditions; this thing, methinks, would form earlier in the year perhaps, but not in November.

[Cyclone1]

I've seen ITCZ disturbances like this thousands of times that never form, but honestly, it's been decently persistent.

[Sanibel]

Still there. Weak inflow from north still going down into it. Hmm. Seems centered over Panama. Convection and curvature are weak and look more like boundary shear than system. Still, if it persists it is in the birthplace of many late season cyclones in the very southern Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

NHC a little more bullish but indicate it is going to move into central america (what is new right?)....


000
ABNT20 KNHC 101614
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THERE ARE FEW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Honestly, It is very depressing that this is not headed towards florida and the
drought SE.

As you all know, I am a storm chaser from the depths of my heart.
I do get quite sad when I don't get to experience natures power.

I can only hope that a good tropical storm forms and comes
and hits florida. I want to get it on videotape. And we need the
rain.

But my hopes have been dashed again and again by the dissappointing
invests. But I will continue to hope.

Tropical Storm Barry was nice in June, I just wish it were
officially a tropical storm at landfall so I could marvel at the
awe of the true beast.

I am really going to hope for a nice big juicy tropical storm to form
and come hit florida. It would be so awesome. It is so sad to see
the evil winter shear come and destroy my tropical storm.

I looked forward to the 2007 season, but now winter is coming

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

is there any chance in the world of a trough pulling it towards
florida?