Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:49 pm

Customized counter
Time until Saturday, December 1, 2007 (UTC time)
9 days
216 hours
12971 minutes
778315 seconds

Alternative version
It is 9 days, 0 hours, 11 minutes and 55 seconds until Saturday, December 1, 2007 (UTC time)
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#22 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:19 pm

Look at it this way. The final TWOs are issued at 10:30 pm EST (0330 UTC). Therefore it should be said the season ends at midnight EST and not midnight UTC.
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Re: Re:

#23 Postby RL3AO » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:08 pm

fact789 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Isn't everything official in meteorology given it UTC?


Not when its the Atlantic Hurricane Season and not the Greenwich Hurricane Season.


Then wouldn't we use AST?
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:12 pm

If you look at the pos-season reports and other products released by the NHC, they are done in UTC. Moreover, the world works using UTC, local times are not official.
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Re:

#25 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 21, 2007 10:33 pm

HURAKAN wrote:If you look at the pos-season reports and other products released by the NHC, they are done in UTC. Moreover, the world works using UTC, local times are not official.


The season starts at 0000 EDT, and ends at 0000 EST, per the TWO issuances. Otherwise the final TWO of the season would be at 2230 UTC and not 0330 UTC (10:30 pm EST) and the first at 0530 UTC June 1 instead of 0930 UTC.
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 12:42 am

Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?
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Re:

#27 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:08 am

HURAKAN wrote:Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?


If Tropical Weather Outlooks are officially only issued during hurricane season, by definition it means the first TWO of the year is issued at the first possible time (5:30a, 11:30a, 5:30p or 10:30p EDT) right after the season starts, and not before, and the last TWO of the year is the last possible time before the season ends, and not after.
Since the last TWO of the season is issued at 0330 UTC, the season can't end at 0000 UTC. Likewise, if we assume the hurricane season starts at 0000 UTC June 1, you're saying that it starts at 8 pm Eastern May 31, which is wrong, as there is no TWO at 10:30 pm EDT on May 31.

Similarly, you don't see the first EPac TWO at the first 10 pm PDT after 0000 UTC on June 1 (which is 1700 PDT May 31), you see it at the first 4 am PDT.
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#28 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 24, 2007 7:44 am

CPHC really looking forward to the end, I think:

ACPN50 PHFO 240750
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI NOV 23 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.

$$

BRAVENDER

Still six days away, but they're already saying they'll resume outlooks next year.
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Re:

#29 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:01 pm

Chacor wrote:CPHC really looking forward to the end, I think:

ACPN50 PHFO 240750
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI NOV 23 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.

$$

BRAVENDER

Still six days away, but they're already saying they'll resume outlooks next year.



Guess they've given up already? :lol:
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

#30 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:51 pm

After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin' :eek: We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5
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#31 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:11 am

:uarrow: I would guess that category five would seem unlikely, because it would be unprecedented (well, unprecedented AGAIN) that it make landfall at that intensity (three in two years, look it up). But another hurricane landfall, probably a little more intense than Humberto, is very possible. What remains to be seen is how shear or storm formation (fairly irregular this year both) will affect the season.
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#32 Postby NONAME » Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:06 pm

Well the season is almost over and i missed the last part of it since my father past away two months ago from ALS but looks like i didnt miss much but glad it was a safe season for most and hope that next year will be a good one for everyone.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

#33 Postby DanKellFla » Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:08 pm

canegrl04 wrote:After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin' :eek: We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5


Or it could be similar to this year, or we could get one cat 5 or we could get nothing or we could get a few hits from a cat 2 to a cat 5. My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.
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Re:

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:13 pm

NONAME wrote:Well the season is almost over and i missed the last part of it since my father past away two months ago from ALS but looks like i didnt miss much but glad it was a safe season for most and hope that next year will be a good one for everyone.


My condolenses to you and your family.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

#35 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:15 pm

DanKellFla wrote: My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.

Sir, I find that insulting to my intelligence! How could you ever say something so wrong?

:wink:
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

#36 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Nov 25, 2007 7:03 pm

DanKellFla wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin' :eek: We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5


Or it could be similar to this year, or we could get one cat 5 or we could get nothing or we could get a few hits from a cat 2 to a cat 5. My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.



You know you need to give reasons for your predictions. :lol:
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Re: Re:

#37 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 26, 2007 12:20 am

Chacor wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?


If Tropical Weather Outlooks are officially only issued during hurricane season, by definition it means the first TWO of the year is issued at the first possible time (5:30a, 11:30a, 5:30p or 10:30p EDT) right after the season starts, and not before, and the last TWO of the year is the last possible time before the season ends, and not after.
Since the last TWO of the season is issued at 0330 UTC, the season can't end at 0000 UTC. Likewise, if we assume the hurricane season starts at 0000 UTC June 1, you're saying that it starts at 8 pm Eastern May 31, which is wrong, as there is no TWO at 10:30 pm EDT on May 31.

Similarly, you don't see the first EPac TWO at the first 10 pm PDT after 0000 UTC on June 1 (which is 1700 PDT May 31), you see it at the first 4 am PDT.


Call it nitpicking, but wouldn't the first EPAC TWO come out at 4am PDT on May 15? ;)
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Re: Re:

#38 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 26, 2007 12:31 am

WindRunner wrote:
Chacor wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?


If Tropical Weather Outlooks are officially only issued during hurricane season, by definition it means the first TWO of the year is issued at the first possible time (5:30a, 11:30a, 5:30p or 10:30p EDT) right after the season starts, and not before, and the last TWO of the year is the last possible time before the season ends, and not after.
Since the last TWO of the season is issued at 0330 UTC, the season can't end at 0000 UTC. Likewise, if we assume the hurricane season starts at 0000 UTC June 1, you're saying that it starts at 8 pm Eastern May 31, which is wrong, as there is no TWO at 10:30 pm EDT on May 31.

Similarly, you don't see the first EPac TWO at the first 10 pm PDT after 0000 UTC on June 1 (which is 1700 PDT May 31), you see it at the first 4 am PDT.


Call it nitpicking, but wouldn't the first EPAC TWO come out at 4am PDT on May 15? ;)


Oops. Quite right.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

#39 Postby dtrain44 » Mon Nov 26, 2007 9:25 am

May the Sooners usher in the offseason by ruining Missouri's season......again.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons

#40 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 27, 2007 4:12 pm

DanKellFla wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin' :eek: We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5


Or it could be similar to this year, or we could get one cat 5 or we could get nothing or we could get a few hits from a cat 2 to a cat 5. My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.


WOW, hope that limb you went out on doesn't break. :wink:
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