Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:If you look at the pos-season reports and other products released by the NHC, they are done in UTC. Moreover, the world works using UTC, local times are not official.
The season starts at 0000 EDT, and ends at 0000 EST, per the TWO issuances. Otherwise the final TWO of the season would be at 2230 UTC and not 0330 UTC (10:30 pm EST) and the first at 0530 UTC June 1 instead of 0930 UTC.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?
If Tropical Weather Outlooks are officially only issued during hurricane season, by definition it means the first TWO of the year is issued at the first possible time (5:30a, 11:30a, 5:30p or 10:30p EDT) right after the season starts, and not before, and the last TWO of the year is the last possible time before the season ends, and not after.
Since the last TWO of the season is issued at 0330 UTC, the season can't end at 0000 UTC. Likewise, if we assume the hurricane season starts at 0000 UTC June 1, you're saying that it starts at 8 pm Eastern May 31, which is wrong, as there is no TWO at 10:30 pm EDT on May 31.
Similarly, you don't see the first EPac TWO at the first 10 pm PDT after 0000 UTC on June 1 (which is 1700 PDT May 31), you see it at the first 4 am PDT.
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CPHC really looking forward to the end, I think:
ACPN50 PHFO 240750
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI NOV 23 2007
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
BRAVENDER
Still six days away, but they're already saying they'll resume outlooks next year.
ACPN50 PHFO 240750
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI NOV 23 2007
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
BRAVENDER
Still six days away, but they're already saying they'll resume outlooks next year.
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- AnnularCane
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Re:
Chacor wrote:CPHC really looking forward to the end, I think:
ACPN50 PHFO 240750
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI NOV 23 2007
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
BRAVENDER
Still six days away, but they're already saying they'll resume outlooks next year.
Guess they've given up already?

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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin'
We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5

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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
canegrl04 wrote:After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin'We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5
Or it could be similar to this year, or we could get one cat 5 or we could get nothing or we could get a few hits from a cat 2 to a cat 5. My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.
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Re:
NONAME wrote:Well the season is almost over and i missed the last part of it since my father past away two months ago from ALS but looks like i didnt miss much but glad it was a safe season for most and hope that next year will be a good one for everyone.
My condolenses to you and your family.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
DanKellFla wrote: My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.
Sir, I find that insulting to my intelligence! How could you ever say something so wrong?

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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
DanKellFla wrote:canegrl04 wrote:After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin'We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5
Or it could be similar to this year, or we could get one cat 5 or we could get nothing or we could get a few hits from a cat 2 to a cat 5. My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.
You know you need to give reasons for your predictions.

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- WindRunner
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Re: Re:
Chacor wrote:HURAKAN wrote:Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?
If Tropical Weather Outlooks are officially only issued during hurricane season, by definition it means the first TWO of the year is issued at the first possible time (5:30a, 11:30a, 5:30p or 10:30p EDT) right after the season starts, and not before, and the last TWO of the year is the last possible time before the season ends, and not after.
Since the last TWO of the season is issued at 0330 UTC, the season can't end at 0000 UTC. Likewise, if we assume the hurricane season starts at 0000 UTC June 1, you're saying that it starts at 8 pm Eastern May 31, which is wrong, as there is no TWO at 10:30 pm EDT on May 31.
Similarly, you don't see the first EPac TWO at the first 10 pm PDT after 0000 UTC on June 1 (which is 1700 PDT May 31), you see it at the first 4 am PDT.
Call it nitpicking, but wouldn't the first EPAC TWO come out at 4am PDT on May 15?

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Re: Re:
WindRunner wrote:Chacor wrote:HURAKAN wrote:Where does it say that the Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate when a hurricane season starts or ends?
If Tropical Weather Outlooks are officially only issued during hurricane season, by definition it means the first TWO of the year is issued at the first possible time (5:30a, 11:30a, 5:30p or 10:30p EDT) right after the season starts, and not before, and the last TWO of the year is the last possible time before the season ends, and not after.
Since the last TWO of the season is issued at 0330 UTC, the season can't end at 0000 UTC. Likewise, if we assume the hurricane season starts at 0000 UTC June 1, you're saying that it starts at 8 pm Eastern May 31, which is wrong, as there is no TWO at 10:30 pm EDT on May 31.
Similarly, you don't see the first EPac TWO at the first 10 pm PDT after 0000 UTC on June 1 (which is 1700 PDT May 31), you see it at the first 4 am PDT.
Call it nitpicking, but wouldn't the first EPAC TWO come out at 4am PDT on May 15?
Oops. Quite right.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
May the Sooners usher in the offseason by ruining Missouri's season......again.
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Re: Countdown to the end of the ATL/EPAC/CPAC hurricane seasons
DanKellFla wrote:canegrl04 wrote:After two straight seasons of the US being lucky,I believe the 2008 is going to be rockin' and rollin'We're likely to see a few hits from cat 2 to cat 5
Or it could be similar to this year, or we could get one cat 5 or we could get nothing or we could get a few hits from a cat 2 to a cat 5. My best guess is that the CONUS may or may not get hit by a storm varying in strength from a TD to a Cat 5.
WOW, hope that limb you went out on doesn't break.

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