First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2007.pdf

They have new interesting sections in the report that all have to read.Its always interesting to see the first forecast to see what they take into account in terms of the factors to then have a somewhat active season numbers.Comments are welcomed.

[Evil Jeremy]

GAH! You beat me to it lol!

[Frank2]

Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...

[MGC]

Before I read the report, my thinking on next season....The Atlantic basin should see neutral ENSO conditions. I would expect a above average 2008 Atlantic season. Perhaps 15/8/4....MGC

[cycloneye]

Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...

Yes,this is his last forecast.Truely one of the best.

[Squarethecircle]

This one seems like a good bet, but if the shearing winds let down this year and the conditions are not all too dissimilar from this season, we could get quite a few more large storms. Of course, that's all speculative, and I think this forecast can be trusted, for now.

[Squarethecircle]

Okay, an update here, Rush just discussed this on his radio show, and he did note some of the problems with these forecasts, although I blame most of them on interpretation rather than the actual forecasts. Nice to see that people actually have their facts straight, especially in the case of Rush.

[CrazyC83]

Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.

My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...

[RL3AO]

You think we will go from moderate La Nina to moderate+ El Nino in 9 months?

[cycloneye]

Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.

My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...

Here is the CPC latest update of ENSO that came out yesterday.They said that La Nina will be around at least until late spring.Crazy,do you think that a transition to El Nino will take place in 4 months after May?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[wxman57]

Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...

Yes,this is his last forecast.Truely one of the best.

I saw Dr. Gray announce that Phil would be taking over at the April 2006 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. He's put a paragraph about that atop every forecast since then. I'm sure he'll still be discussing the forecast with Phil as he has been for the past few years. If you've never seen Dr. Gray speak, it's quite a treat.

[HURAKAN]

Just like the forecast I was expecting. Lets see what happens in 2008.

[CrazyC83]

Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.

My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...

Here is the CPC latest update of ENSO that came out yesterday.They said that La Nina will be around at least until late spring.Crazy,do you think that a transition to El Nino will take place in 4 months after May?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Isn't that what happened in 2006? Wasn't there a La Nina in the winter and El Nino by summer?

[RL3AO]

Page 24 was interesting where he described why 2005 maybe wasn't that much of an outlier as thought.

[cycloneye]

The analog years from CSU for 2008 are: See page 18

1953
1956=Hurricane Betsy (Made Landfall)
1989=Hurricane Hugo (Made Landfall)
1999=Hurricane Lenny (Very Close Call)
2000=Hurricane Debby (Very Close Call)

Well,in four of those analog years,Puerto Rico was affected directly or was in close calls.It doesnt mean anything,but is neverless interesting to note this.

[Squarethecircle]

Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.

My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...

Here is the CPC latest update of ENSO that came out yesterday.They said that La Nina will be around at least until late spring.Crazy,do you think that a transition to El Nino will take place in 4 months after May?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Isn't that what happened in 2006? Wasn't there a La Nina in the winter and El Nino by summer?

No. Since 2005 did not have a La Nina, it would be extraordinary to have a La Nina come and go, followed by an El Nino, in a total of about three months.

[Coredesat]

Actually, in 2006, conditions seemed ripe for a weak to moderate La Nina, then El Nino conditions quickly developed over the early weeks of summer.

[Squarethecircle]

But the fact remains that there was no La Nina over the winter, and if there was, an El Nino would not have time to develop. And yes, what you said (at least as far as I know) is precisely what happened.

[jinftl]

I predict that my mortgage, car insurance, credit card and utilities bills will come next month. Can I get money from the government to keep making this prediction (like the "prediction programs") or ask my boss for a raise (like insurance companies) based upon this expert prediction?

[Derek Ortt]

maybe there was not the technical defintion of a la nina, but there were la nina conditions as early as late in the 2005 hurricane season