First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
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- cycloneye
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First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2007.pdf
They have new interesting sections in the report that all have to read.Its always interesting to see the first forecast to see what they take into account in terms of the factors to then have a somewhat active season numbers.Comments are welcomed.
They have new interesting sections in the report that all have to read.Its always interesting to see the first forecast to see what they take into account in terms of the factors to then have a somewhat active season numbers.Comments are welcomed.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...
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- MGC
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Re: First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
Before I read the report, my thinking on next season....The Atlantic basin should see neutral ENSO conditions. I would expect a above average 2008 Atlantic season. Perhaps 15/8/4....MGC
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- cycloneye
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Re: First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
Frank2 wrote:Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...
Yes,this is his last forecast.Truely one of the best.
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Okay, an update here, Rush just discussed this on his radio show, and he did note some of the problems with these forecasts, although I blame most of them on interpretation rather than the actual forecasts. Nice to see that people actually have their facts straight, especially in the case of Rush.
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- cycloneye
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.
My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...
Here is the CPC latest update of ENSO that came out yesterday.They said that La Nina will be around at least until late spring.Crazy,do you think that a transition to El Nino will take place in 4 months after May?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
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- wxman57
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Re: First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
cycloneye wrote:Frank2 wrote:Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...
Yes,this is his last forecast.Truely one of the best.
I saw Dr. Gray announce that Phil would be taking over at the April 2006 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. He's put a paragraph about that atop every forecast since then. I'm sure he'll still be discussing the forecast with Phil as he has been for the past few years. If you've never seen Dr. Gray speak, it's quite a treat.
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.
My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...
Here is the CPC latest update of ENSO that came out yesterday.They said that La Nina will be around at least until late spring.Crazy,do you think that a transition to El Nino will take place in 4 months after May?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Isn't that what happened in 2006? Wasn't there a La Nina in the winter and El Nino by summer?
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- cycloneye
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Re: First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
The analog years from CSU for 2008 are: See page 18
1953
1956=Hurricane Betsy (Made Landfall)
1989=Hurricane Hugo (Made Landfall)
1999=Hurricane Lenny (Very Close Call)
2000=Hurricane Debby (Very Close Call)
Well,in four of those analog years,Puerto Rico was affected directly or was in close calls.It doesnt mean anything,but is neverless interesting to note this.
1953
1956=Hurricane Betsy (Made Landfall)
1989=Hurricane Hugo (Made Landfall)
1999=Hurricane Lenny (Very Close Call)
2000=Hurricane Debby (Very Close Call)
Well,in four of those analog years,Puerto Rico was affected directly or was in close calls.It doesnt mean anything,but is neverless interesting to note this.
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:cycloneye wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.
My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...
Here is the CPC latest update of ENSO that came out yesterday.They said that La Nina will be around at least until late spring.Crazy,do you think that a transition to El Nino will take place in 4 months after May?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Isn't that what happened in 2006? Wasn't there a La Nina in the winter and El Nino by summer?
No. Since 2005 did not have a La Nina, it would be extraordinary to have a La Nina come and go, followed by an El Nino, in a total of about three months.
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Re: First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3
I predict that my mortgage, car insurance, credit card and utilities bills will come next month. Can I get money from the government to keep making this prediction (like the "prediction programs") or ask my boss for a raise (like insurance companies) based upon this expert prediction?
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