TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

Ed Mahmoud · #421 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 4:15 pm

New ECMWF

Of course, EC tends to over-do SW Conus troughs...

But it looks good for winter wx.

southerngale · #422 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 4:16 pm

Portastorm wrote:Thanks for posting EWG ... with 3 consecutive runs from the GFS and concurrence from the European, I think we need to start paying attention to this.

Don't do it, Portastorm. Don't do it.

Stratosphere747 · #423 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 4:49 pm

It's all about the "High."

Brownsville boys will start to get my attention. :wink:

#424 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:16 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:I just finished reading an article in Texas Monthly about the Cotton Bowl and it mentioned the 1979 bowl game played in "Arctic like" conditons. I can't think of a better enviroment for all of those Razorback fans next Tuesday!

I can testify to those conditions!! I was there!!! :froze:

Extremeweatherguy · #425 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:40 pm

Extremeweatherguy · #426 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:48 pm

The main difference I am noticing between the GFS and EURO is precipitation potential. The GFS is showing a pattern more favorable for a cold, dry environment over Texas (highs in the 40s, lows below freezing in the Houston area with mostly sunny skies), while the EURO is showing a setup more favorable for a cloudy, cold and potentially wintery scenario for Houston (highs likely below 40F in Houston with clouds and possibly a winter weather threat).

It will be interesting to see which model ends up being more correct.

#427 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 6:06 pm

southerngale wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Thanks for posting EWG ... with 3 consecutive runs from the GFS and concurrence from the European, I think we need to start paying attention to this.

Don't do it, Portastorm. Don't do it.

I know SG ... I know ... I must .... fight .... urge ... must fight .... believing in GFS Arctic outbreaks ... * Portastorm straining hard to hold back *

Ed Mahmoud · #428 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The main difference I am noticing between the GFS and EURO is precipitation potential. The GFS is showing a pattern more favorable for a cold, dry environment over Texas (highs in the 40s, lows below freezing in the Houston area with mostly sunny skies), while the EURO is showing a setup more favorable for a cloudy, cold and potentially wintery scenario for Houston (highs likely below 40F in Houston with clouds and possibly a winter weather threat).

It will be interesting to see which model ends up being more correct.

Cold w/o winter precip is a cruel [strike]waist[/strike] waste.

Ed Mahmoud · #429 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:45 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The main difference I am noticing between the GFS and EURO is precipitation potential. The GFS is showing a pattern more favorable for a cold, dry environment over Texas (highs in the 40s, lows below freezing in the Houston area with mostly sunny skies), while the EURO is showing a setup more favorable for a cloudy, cold and potentially wintery scenario for Houston (highs likely below 40F in Houston with clouds and possibly a winter weather threat).

It will be interesting to see which model ends up being more correct.

Cold w/o winter precip is a cruel [strike]waist[/strike] waste.

We need a strike through button.

Extremeweatherguy · #430 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:32 pm

Hmmm. Interesting forecast from weather.com tonight for January 2nd. Their temperatures are likely too warm, but still, a forecast of "rain/snow" is definitely enough to get my attention down here in SE Texas...

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreati ... 9?dayNum=9

#431 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:41 pm

Check out the 0z GFS run for Christmas Day ... a 1061 mb high coming down from Wyoming/Montana ... are you kidding me?! Should that verify, you can bet we'll see a major-league freeze down here in Texas.

Extremeweatherguy · #432 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:12 am

yeah, the 00z has a bitter cold scenario in place for us, and is much colder than the "milder" 18z run (which was the warmest of the last 5, but still showed an arctic front). A 1061+mb high usually equals a major cold spell for Texas, and I am beginning to believe that this is a real possibility. A setup like this usually delivers single digits, teens and 20s deep into the state for overnight lows.

Extremeweatherguy · #433 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 8:38 am

pwrdog · #434 Postby **pwrdog** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 9:19 am

If this does verify I'm glad there is no -55 to -60 air over western canada or alaska.. Still very cold....

The NWS in houston has missed the forecast at my house by 3 to 4 degrees the last few nights... Forecast lows of 27 and 31 ended up being 24 and 27...

cheezyWXguy · #435 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:28 am

man this storm looks like its gonna be great for yall...tell me what was like when i get back from my vacation

Ed Mahmoud · #436 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:47 am

Euro shows near 1030 mb pressure in Houston, with cold air advection still going strong.

Trough still to the West...

southerngale · #437 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:50 am

Brrrr.... I'm freezing my tootsies off this morning. Forget the quest for snow... bring back summer! :lol:

28° at two Instaweather/Weatherbug stations just to my north and just to my south and the airport in Nederland (south of Beaumont) even recorded a low of 32°

It's coooooooold!

Ed Mahmoud · #438 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:51 am

If we have cold weather w/o at least some freezing rain, I'll be so cheesed.

Extremeweatherguy · #439 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 12:34 pm

The 12z GFS is drier, but it continues to show one heck of an arctic plunge into Texas! Everything still looks good for cold days (highs in the 30s/40s for Houston) and below freezing nights behind this front. We might even see a hard freeze or two out of this. Possible teens even?

Definitely getting more interesting by the minute!

Ed Mahmoud · #440 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 2:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z GFS is drier, but it continues to show one heck of an arctic plunge into Texas! Everything still looks good for cold days (highs in the 30s/40s for Houston) and below freezing nights behind this front. We might even see a hard freeze or two out of this. Possible teens even?

Definitely getting more interesting by the minute!

Cold w/o freezing/frozen precip is depressing.

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