TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#421 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 24, 2007 4:15 pm

New ECMWF

Image

Image


Of course, EC tends to over-do SW Conus troughs...

But it looks good for winter wx.
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#422 Postby southerngale » Mon Dec 24, 2007 4:16 pm

Portastorm wrote:Thanks for posting EWG ... with 3 consecutive runs from the GFS and concurrence from the European, I think we need to start paying attention to this. :eek:


Don't do it, Portastorm. Don't do it.



Image
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#423 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Dec 24, 2007 4:49 pm

It's all about the "High."

Brownsville boys will start to get my attention. :wink:
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#424 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:16 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:I just finished reading an article in Texas Monthly about the Cotton Bowl and it mentioned the 1979 bowl game played in "Arctic like" conditons. I can't think of a better enviroment for all of those Razorback fans next Tuesday! :lol: :lol:



I can testify to those conditions!! I was there!!! :froze: :froze: :froze:
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#425 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:40 pm

18z GFS...

Surface temperature/wind/precip:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

850mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif

Thicknesses:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif

500mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_216l.gif

...Not quite as extreme as the last couple of runs, but definitely still an impressive arctic cold snap across the south.

Now it is time to wait and see what the 00z shows..
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#426 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:48 pm

The main difference I am noticing between the GFS and EURO is precipitation potential. The GFS is showing a pattern more favorable for a cold, dry environment over Texas (highs in the 40s, lows below freezing in the Houston area with mostly sunny skies), while the EURO is showing a setup more favorable for a cloudy, cold and potentially wintery scenario for Houston (highs likely below 40F in Houston with clouds and possibly a winter weather threat).

It will be interesting to see which model ends up being more correct.
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#427 Postby Portastorm » Mon Dec 24, 2007 6:06 pm

southerngale wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Thanks for posting EWG ... with 3 consecutive runs from the GFS and concurrence from the European, I think we need to start paying attention to this. :eek:


Don't do it, Portastorm. Don't do it.



Image


:lol: I know SG ... I know ... I must .... fight .... urge ... must fight .... believing in GFS Arctic outbreaks ... * Portastorm straining hard to hold back *
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Re:

#428 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The main difference I am noticing between the GFS and EURO is precipitation potential. The GFS is showing a pattern more favorable for a cold, dry environment over Texas (highs in the 40s, lows below freezing in the Houston area with mostly sunny skies), while the EURO is showing a setup more favorable for a cloudy, cold and potentially wintery scenario for Houston (highs likely below 40F in Houston with clouds and possibly a winter weather threat).

It will be interesting to see which model ends up being more correct.



Cold w/o winter precip is a cruel [strike]waist[/strike] waste.
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Re: Re:

#429 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:45 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The main difference I am noticing between the GFS and EURO is precipitation potential. The GFS is showing a pattern more favorable for a cold, dry environment over Texas (highs in the 40s, lows below freezing in the Houston area with mostly sunny skies), while the EURO is showing a setup more favorable for a cloudy, cold and potentially wintery scenario for Houston (highs likely below 40F in Houston with clouds and possibly a winter weather threat).

It will be interesting to see which model ends up being more correct.



Cold w/o winter precip is a cruel [strike]waist[/strike] waste.



We need a strike through button.
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#430 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:32 pm

Hmmm. Interesting forecast from weather.com tonight for January 2nd. Their temperatures are likely too warm, but still, a forecast of "rain/snow" is definitely enough to get my attention down here in SE Texas...

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreati ... 9?dayNum=9
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#431 Postby Portastorm » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:41 pm

Check out the 0z GFS run for Christmas Day ... a 1061 mb high coming down from Wyoming/Montana ... are you kidding me?! Should that verify, you can bet we'll see a major-league freeze down here in Texas.

Image
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#432 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:12 am

yeah, the 00z has a bitter cold scenario in place for us, and is much colder than the "milder" 18z run (which was the warmest of the last 5, but still showed an arctic front). A 1061+mb high usually equals a major cold spell for Texas, and I am beginning to believe that this is a real possibility. A setup like this usually delivers single digits, teens and 20s deep into the state for overnight lows.
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#433 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 25, 2007 8:38 am

The 6z GFS shows a winter storm for Texas...

Surface temps/winds/precip:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

850mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif

Thicknesses:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif

500mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif

This kind of setup would mean lots of snow for west Texas, a mix of snow, sleet and some freezing rain in central and north Texas, and periods of freezing rain and sleet in southeast Texas. Overall, it would be one big mess! Getting about 32F would be a hard task for most of the northern 2/3rds of the state in this kind of setup. We could be looking at a prolonged freeze event (with winter precipitation accumulations) in many places.
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#434 Postby pwrdog » Tue Dec 25, 2007 9:19 am

If this does verify I'm glad there is no -55 to -60 air over western canada or alaska.. Still very cold....

The NWS in houston has missed the forecast at my house by 3 to 4 degrees the last few nights... Forecast lows of 27 and 31 ended up being 24 and 27...
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#435 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:28 am

man this storm looks like its gonna be great for yall...tell me what was like when i get back from my vacation :(
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#436 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:47 am

Euro shows near 1030 mb pressure in Houston, with cold air advection still going strong.

Image

Trough still to the West...

Image
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#437 Postby southerngale » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:50 am

Brrrr.... I'm freezing my tootsies off this morning. Forget the quest for snow... bring back summer! :lol:

28° at two Instaweather/Weatherbug stations just to my north and just to my south and the airport in Nederland (south of Beaumont) even recorded a low of 32°

It's coooooooold!

Image
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Active weather pattern setting up

#438 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:51 am

If we have cold weather w/o at least some freezing rain, I'll be so cheesed.
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#439 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 25, 2007 12:34 pm

The 12z GFS is drier, but it continues to show one heck of an arctic plunge into Texas! Everything still looks good for cold days (highs in the 30s/40s for Houston) and below freezing nights behind this front. We might even see a hard freeze or two out of this. Possible teens even?

Definitely getting more interesting by the minute!
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Re:

#440 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 25, 2007 2:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z GFS is drier, but it continues to show one heck of an arctic plunge into Texas! Everything still looks good for cold days (highs in the 30s/40s for Houston) and below freezing nights behind this front. We might even see a hard freeze or two out of this. Possible teens even?

Definitely getting more interesting by the minute!



Cold w/o freezing/frozen precip is depressing.
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