Models showing storm soon in Atlantic?

[Squarethecircle]

Yeep. It's scary when this kind of thing happens. I think I actually might have to make up my MIND about what's going on here.

On the one hand, the system looks [sort of] decent. It hasn't dropped to the surface yet (not even close). Shear is predictable for this time of year. In November I might be a tiny bit excited. I don't see the water warm enough, of course, because it's JANUARY, but that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem for the other storms that form off season (though that logic is a bit facetious). I'd like to see it make it, and it certainly has the best chance of anything since 95L, but seeing as that didn't have much of a chance anyway, I'm going to have to say that I just don't see this storm making it.

It is probably tropical systems which go out of the rules established by the scientists, are the origin of our great interest on them...

There is nothing more exciting than to monitor a hurricane out of season, or a tropical cyclone surprising the own NHC forecasters

[Coredesat]

Well, the system looks worse now than it did only 6 hours ago, so by this time tomorrow (or perhaps in 12 hours or so) we'll know if it'll make it. Right now I'm just seeing sheared convection associated with a surface trough (which may have closed off into a very broad low).

[curtadams]

The models are much more bearish now and think this is as good as it's going to get.

[Pedro Fernández]

Yeep. It's scary when this kind of thing happens. I think I actually might have to make up my MIND about what's going on here.

On the one hand, the system looks [sort of] decent. It hasn't dropped to the surface yet (not even close). Shear is predictable for this time of year. In November I might be a tiny bit excited. I don't see the water warm enough, of course, because it's JANUARY, but that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem for the other storms that form off season (though that logic is a bit facetious). I'd like to see it make it, and it certainly has the best chance of anything since 95L, but seeing as that didn't have much of a chance anyway, I'm going to have to say that I just don't see this storm making it.

It is probably tropical systems which go out of the rules established by the scientists, are the origin of our great interest on them...

There is nothing more exciting than to monitor a hurricane out of season, or a tropical cyclone surprising the own NHC forecasters

Yep, I agree that you are right. I side with you

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking good this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Coredesat]

It's no different from yesterday; one heavily sheared surface trof, with an upper trof to the east. Upper level shear in this area is still around 50 kt, and the next front is progged to enter the Atlantic by the end of the day. This feature will probably be gone by tomorrow night.



BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
75W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N60W S TO 19N59W. THIS UPPER TROUGH
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 45W-61W. A
SECOND WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 32N43W TO 26N41W AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
35W-45W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N52W TO 19N50W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking good this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I'm not impressed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking good this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I'm not impressed.

Of course, my opinion and $4 will get you a Venti coffee at Starbucks.

[Blown Away]

The 3500hr CMC shows a storm in the Gulf.

[Gustywind]

Nice area , but i'm not too much confidence on this to see something forming here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv.jpg
http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/s ... Tagant.jpg

[Cyclone1]

Looking somewhat impressive for a January system. The Atlantic should be totally void this time of year.

Meh...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking somewhat impressive for a January system. The Atlantic should be totally void this time of year.

Meh...

Looks a tad bit better.

Of course, even being in one of the lighter shear areas in the sub-tropical Atlantic now, it is still under 30 to 40 knots of shear per CIMMS

[RL3AO]

The 3500hr CMC shows a storm in the Gulf.

3500hr? That would be around June 1. Early season storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

The 3500hr CMC shows a storm in the Gulf.

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!

"The 384 hour GFS plows Miami"

"The Euro indicates a NOLA strike at 240 hours"

"The Canadian model demolishes my backyard!"

Thanks (seriously) for your injection of sanity.

[dtrain44]

Yeah, that's hilarious. The sad thing is, I didn't really think about it at first. It was just like "oh, in 3500 hours, the CMC thinks there'll be a storm." Wow.

[HurricaneRobert]

It does look better. It's not something I'm used to seeing when I bother to check out the open ocean in winter. Anyway it was only a week-and-a-half ago when we probably had a subtropical storm out there.

[Chacor]

Next TWD should be out in an hour or two, that'll be interesting.

[Chacor]

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG
THE E COAST OF THE US TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE US. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC S OF
24N W OF 65W WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N56W COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 50W-65W.

[Coredesat]

Also:

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W SW ALONG 24N57W TO 19N64W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF
THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N.

It's beginning to look interesting, despite the fact that it's embedded in the upper-level zonal flow according to the streamlines.

[cycloneye]

Is a mid-level low:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 AM AST THU JAN 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 25N AND 50W WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO FILL SLOWLY
THROUGH SATURDAY.