TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[PineyWoods]

I don't think that is possible. every other post is from the DFW or Houston areas. Its nice to see at least a mention of the western half of TX. It is a big state, you know

FWIW neither residents of the Metroplex nor Houston consider themselves as part of "East Texas".

DFW = North Texas or more specifically, North Central Texas
Houston = SE Texas and sometimes the Upper TX Coast
East Texas = Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Palestine, Nacagdoches, San Augustine

Outsiders may geographically consider anywhere east of I-35 or I-45 as "East Texas" but locals only consider "East Texas" to be what's indicated on the map here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_East_Texas

I'm quite aware of that. I've lived in Houston. But relative to the remainder of the state, they are in the eastern half. Back to the -removed-

I guess then that relative to Dalhart residents of Amarillo could then be considered South Texas?

Sorry, but I thought this was a weather forum for discussion. The models that most here are posting about do come from computer models, then what may I ask is so wrong about that. I don't ask this to be confrontational, I'm just curious as to why a Pro Met seems to be bothered by posts here that are simply relaying what your profession uses for long term forcasting?

As far as "-removed-", what is wrong with people in this part of Texas looking at the models and hoping for snow? It's not like we in this area of Texas get this kind of weather that often and I don't think it really is a -removed- for bad weather or for a human type of tradgedy based on an episode of a snowfall as compared to Hurricane season.

If I may, I would rather hear your professional opinion on what you see as a likely outcome to the future events, based on the models and on your own interpretation of what you think will happen. I like hearing from a pro met on why he agrees or disagrees with models.

[Portastorm]

I just took a look at both the 12z Euro and 12z Canadian runs ... and from what I see, there is NOTHING to suggest a winter weather event late this week for areas south and east of a San Angelo-to-Dallas-to-Tyler line. Any moisture associated with the frontal passage will be long gone by the time it's cold enough to do anything "exciting." Of course we know that the GFS has been trending in this direction as well.

Good thing I didn't get my kicking shoes yet ... I'm slowly learning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just took a look at both the 12z Euro and 12z Canadian runs ... and from what I see, there is NOTHING to suggest a winter weather event late this week for areas south and east of a San Angelo-to-Dallas-to-Tyler line. Any moisture associated with the frontal passage will be long gone by the time it's cold enough to do anything "exciting." Of course we know that the GFS has been trending in this direction as well.

Good thing I didn't get my kicking shoes yet ... I'm slowly learning.

yeah, the slim chance of flurries or sleet pellets from yesterday is gone (unless you live in north Texas). The new hot topic instead seems to be the potential of a real arctic front sometime the week of the 21st. JB, wxman57, the CPC and the models all seem to think it is possible, so as of now this definitely seems like the setup with the most potential so far this winter. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully by the time I return from Atlanta on the 21st, we will have everything sorted out as to whether or not this is truly the "real deal".

[gboudx]

I fully expect to see the wintry mix chances for the Dallas area decrease as time goes by. I have nothing to base that on other than having the rug pulled before. We'll see.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I thought this cold was suppose to be really cold. All the numbers I see that might be cold is Thursday in the 40's and then warming into the 50's by the weekend. The way everyone on here and even on TV keep talking artic air...when did 40's and 50's be artic? Maybe because of the near 80's the 40's would feel like artic. The hype is like artic and I am thinking in the 20's for highs...sort of like the hype of the Cowboys...going to be a blow out and I was the only one saying no they are going to beat themselves by a few points. Maybe Jessica Simpson controls this GFS I keep hearing about. LOL
Bring on the cold (20's for highs and snow...NO COLD RAIN!) Nowing my luck even the weather will let me down just like my C'Boys have this winter.

[jasons2k]

ETXHAMXYL, the real cold threat is NEXT week, not this week...

Of course, that's been the story most of the winter too.

[cheezyWXguy]

I thought this cold was suppose to be really cold. All the numbers I see that might be cold is Thursday in the 40's and then warming into the 50's by the weekend. The way everyone on here and even on TV keep talking artic air...when did 40's and 50's be artic? Maybe because of the near 80's the 40's would feel like artic. The hype is like artic and I am thinking in the 20's for highs...sort of like the hype of the Cowboys...going to be a blow out and I was the only one saying no they are going to beat themselves by a few points. Maybe Jessica Simpson controls this GFS I keep hearing about. LOL
Bring on the cold (20's for highs and snow...NO COLD RAIN!) Nowing my luck even the weather will let me down just like my C'Boys have this winter.

Arctic refers to where the airmass originates from..not how cold it is, although arctic fronts are typically a lot colder than pacific fronts. Also Ive been hearing from places that this is an arctic front, but from other places that it is just a pacific front, and if it is just a pacific front, its gotta be one of coldest ones ive seen, since our high on thursday is 39 with a chance of snow.

[Ptarmigan]

yeah, the slim chance of flurries or sleet pellets from yesterday is gone (unless you live in north Texas). The new hot topic instead seems to be the potential of a real arctic front sometime the week of the 21st. JB, wxman57, the CPC and the models all seem to think it is possible, so as of now this definitely seems like the setup with the most potential so far this winter. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully by the time I return from Atlanta on the 21st, we will have everything sorted out as to whether or not this is truly the "real deal".

Going back to 1895, Houston should see some sort of snowfall every 3.6 years. Snowfall totaling over 1 inch should fall every 10.2 years. I think we are due for one soon. The last time we saw at least 1 inches and greater was in 1989, which has been 19 years.

[Portastorm]

ETXHAMXYL, the real cold threat is NEXT week, not this week...

Of course, that's been the story most of the winter too.

No kidding Jason ... no kidding!

I'm pretty much fed up with the GFS' promises of "oh, just you wait, there's Arctic air coming next week." Next week rarely comes around these parts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z Euro loop from PSU e-Wall suggests a brief opportunity for freezing/frozen NW of DFW Wednesday night, but otherwise cold and moisture never meet during the next week.

[jasons2k]

Going back to 1895, Houston should see some sort of snowfall every 3.6 years. Snowfall totaling over 1 inch should fall every 10.2 years. I think we are due for one soon. The last time we saw at least 1 inches and greater was in 1989, which has been 19 years.

In weather, there is no such thing as being "due" for anything. Mother Nature doesn't know the difference. It's the same as using the "return period" to (attempt to) predict if the ___ coast will get struck by a hurricane...or the opposite, taking Florida 2004 as an example: "4 hurricanes have never hit the coast in the same year, so since we've already had 3 hits, our season is over"...those kinds of statistics really mean nothing in the end...what matters is the synoptics & the pattern - the now, not what happened 1,2,5, or 10 years ago.

[lrak]

I think that history repeats, was the meaning of his thread. Your examples are history,and they will repeat sooner or later.

[GeneratorPower]

Going back to 1895, Houston should see some sort of snowfall every 3.6 years. Snowfall totaling over 1 inch should fall every 10.2 years. I think we are due for one soon. The last time we saw at least 1 inches and greater was in 1989, which has been 19 years.

In weather, there is no such thing as being "due" for anything. Mother Nature doesn't know the difference. It's the same as using the "return period" to (attempt to) predict if the ___ coast will get struck by a hurricane...or the opposite, taking Florida 2004 as an example: "4 hurricanes have never hit the coast in the same year, so since we've already had 3 hits, our season is over"...those kinds of statistics really mean nothing in the end...what matters is the synoptics & the pattern - the now, not what happened 1,2,5, or 10 years ago.

I ate a pizza right before I got into a car accident. Therefore, pizza causes car accidents. Same reasoning.

[richtrav]

IF snowfall were random events this would be known as the gambler's fallacy, the notion that since something hasn't occurred in a long time that it will somehow occur more quickly (since we're "overdue"). But events like hurricanes and snow/cold are not uniformly random, the overall odds get tilted some when you're in a period of, say, higher hurricane activity or colder winters (not). The odds also get shifted around from season to season with events like El Nino. You're still playing the odds of course and it could still snow in Houston - think Corpus '04 - just be realistic and realize the cards have been stacked against you since the 1990s. Add that to the trend this year towards dry cold and I would most definitely not get my hopes up. The odds were probably better last year when the winter was wetter and cooler.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IF snowfall were random events this would be known as the gambler's fallacy, the notion that since something hasn't occurred in a long time that it will somehow occur more quickly (since we're "overdue"). But events like hurricanes and snow/cold are not uniformly random, the overall odds get tilted some when you're in a period of, say, higher hurricane activity or colder winters (not). The odds also get shifted around from season to season with events like El Nino. You're still playing the odds of course and it could still snow in Houston - think Corpus '04 - just be realistic and realize the cards have been stacked against you since the 1990s. Add that to the trend this year towards dry cold and I would most definitely not get my hopes up. The odds were probably better last year when the winter was wetter and cooler.

We had a couple of hours of freezing drizzle at my house last winter.

[Johnny]

It looks like we could have some big cold coming down. JB says that come game time in Green Bay this weekend, the temp could be hovering around 0 with a wind chill in the -40 range. I'll be watching that one!!

[gboudx]

DFW NWS now has a 40% chance of rain Wed night with a low of 30. Previous forecast was 30% chance of sleet/snow with a low of 28. I knew this would change as it got closer. Let's see how much it continues to change.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW NWS now has a 40% chance of rain Wed night with a low of 30. Previous forecast was 30% chance of sleet/snow with a low of 28. I knew this would change as it got closer. Let's see how much it continues to change.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%

I say BS, I want my snow!

[Portastorm]

The Snow Nazi says "no snow for you DFW!"

A snippet from the DFW forecast discussion this afternoon out of Fort Worth NWS:

THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES ONLY A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SLEET MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NEAR COMANCHE...TO THE DFW METROPLEX...TO PARIS. MOST LIKELY ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MID
LEVEL ZONE WHERE SNOW AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION USUALLY DEVELOPS
WILL BE TOO DRY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFFSET IN TIMING
JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT REMOVING SNOW FROM THE FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

[gboudx]

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%

I say BS, I want my snow!

Yeah, that's for your area. Out here in Rockwall, it's:

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

So whatever sleet you see, before midnight of course, will become all rain as it moves east.

Maybe this is one of those winters we don't really see any frozen precip or have any problems with it? But February is still to come.