TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
PineyWoods
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 127
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2007 3:39 pm
Location: Tyler

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

#821 Postby PineyWoods » Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:53 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
jasons wrote:
wall_cloud wrote:
I don't think that is possible. every other post is from the DFW or Houston areas. Its nice to see at least a mention of the western half of TX. It is a big state, you know


FWIW neither residents of the Metroplex nor Houston consider themselves as part of "East Texas".

DFW = North Texas or more specifically, North Central Texas
Houston = SE Texas and sometimes the Upper TX Coast
East Texas = Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Palestine, Nacagdoches, San Augustine

Outsiders may geographically consider anywhere east of I-35 or I-45 as "East Texas" but locals only consider "East Texas" to be what's indicated on the map here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_East_Texas


I'm quite aware of that. I've lived in Houston. But relative to the remainder of the state, they are in the eastern half. Back to the -removed- :ggreen:


I guess then that relative to Dalhart residents of Amarillo could then be considered South Texas?

Sorry, but I thought this was a weather forum for discussion. The models that most here are posting about do come from computer models, then what may I ask is so wrong about that. I don't ask this to be confrontational, I'm just curious as to why a Pro Met seems to be bothered by posts here that are simply relaying what your profession uses for long term forcasting?

As far as "-removed-", what is wrong with people in this part of Texas looking at the models and hoping for snow? It's not like we in this area of Texas get this kind of weather that often and I don't think it really is a -removed- for bad weather or for a human type of tradgedy based on an episode of a snowfall as compared to Hurricane season.

If I may, I would rather hear your professional opinion on what you see as a likely outcome to the future events, based on the models and on your own interpretation of what you think will happen. I like hearing from a pro met on why he agrees or disagrees with models.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#822 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:12 pm

I just took a look at both the 12z Euro and 12z Canadian runs ... and from what I see, there is NOTHING to suggest a winter weather event late this week for areas south and east of a San Angelo-to-Dallas-to-Tyler line. Any moisture associated with the frontal passage will be long gone by the time it's cold enough to do anything "exciting." Of course we know that the GFS has been trending in this direction as well.

Good thing I didn't get my kicking shoes yet ... I'm slowly learning. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#823 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:21 pm

Portastorm wrote:I just took a look at both the 12z Euro and 12z Canadian runs ... and from what I see, there is NOTHING to suggest a winter weather event late this week for areas south and east of a San Angelo-to-Dallas-to-Tyler line. Any moisture associated with the frontal passage will be long gone by the time it's cold enough to do anything "exciting." Of course we know that the GFS has been trending in this direction as well.

Good thing I didn't get my kicking shoes yet ... I'm slowly learning. :wink:
yeah, the slim chance of flurries or sleet pellets from yesterday is gone (unless you live in north Texas). The new hot topic instead seems to be the potential of a real arctic front sometime the week of the 21st. JB, wxman57, the CPC and the models all seem to think it is possible, so as of now this definitely seems like the setup with the most potential so far this winter. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully by the time I return from Atlanta on the 21st, we will have everything sorted out as to whether or not this is truly the "real deal".
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#824 Postby gboudx » Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:24 pm

I fully expect to see the wintry mix chances for the Dallas area decrease as time goes by. I have nothing to base that on other than having the rug pulled before. We'll see.
0 likes   

User avatar
ETXHAMXYL
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: East Texas
Contact:

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#825 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:56 pm

I thought this cold was suppose to be really cold. All the numbers I see that might be cold is Thursday in the 40's and then warming into the 50's by the weekend. The way everyone on here and even on TV keep talking artic air...when did 40's and 50's be artic? Maybe because of the near 80's the 40's would feel like artic. The hype is like artic and I am thinking in the 20's for highs...sort of like the hype of the Cowboys...going to be a blow out and I was the only one saying no they are going to beat themselves by a few points. Maybe Jessica Simpson controls this GFS I keep hearing about. LOL
Bring on the cold (20's for highs and snow...NO COLD RAIN!) Nowing my luck even the weather will let me down just like my C'Boys have this winter.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#826 Postby jasons2k » Sun Jan 13, 2008 9:11 pm

ETXHAMXYL, the real cold threat is NEXT week, not this week...

Of course, that's been the story most of the winter too.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#827 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jan 13, 2008 9:46 pm

ETXHAMXYL wrote:I thought this cold was suppose to be really cold. All the numbers I see that might be cold is Thursday in the 40's and then warming into the 50's by the weekend. The way everyone on here and even on TV keep talking artic air...when did 40's and 50's be artic? Maybe because of the near 80's the 40's would feel like artic. The hype is like artic and I am thinking in the 20's for highs...sort of like the hype of the Cowboys...going to be a blow out and I was the only one saying no they are going to beat themselves by a few points. Maybe Jessica Simpson controls this GFS I keep hearing about. LOL
Bring on the cold (20's for highs and snow...NO COLD RAIN!) Nowing my luck even the weather will let me down just like my C'Boys have this winter.

Arctic refers to where the airmass originates from..not how cold it is, although arctic fronts are typically a lot colder than pacific fronts. Also Ive been hearing from places that this is an arctic front, but from other places that it is just a pacific front, and if it is just a pacific front, its gotta be one of coldest ones ive seen, since our high on thursday is 39 with a chance of snow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5313
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#828 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:07 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:yeah, the slim chance of flurries or sleet pellets from yesterday is gone (unless you live in north Texas). The new hot topic instead seems to be the potential of a real arctic front sometime the week of the 21st. JB, wxman57, the CPC and the models all seem to think it is possible, so as of now this definitely seems like the setup with the most potential so far this winter. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully by the time I return from Atlanta on the 21st, we will have everything sorted out as to whether or not this is truly the "real deal".


Going back to 1895, Houston should see some sort of snowfall every 3.6 years. Snowfall totaling over 1 inch should fall every 10.2 years. I think we are due for one soon. The last time we saw at least 1 inches and greater was in 1989, which has been 19 years.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#829 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 14, 2008 10:26 am

jasons wrote:ETXHAMXYL, the real cold threat is NEXT week, not this week...

Of course, that's been the story most of the winter too.


No kidding Jason ... no kidding! :roll:

I'm pretty much fed up with the GFS' promises of "oh, just you wait, there's Arctic air coming next week." Next week rarely comes around these parts.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#830 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jan 14, 2008 10:32 am

0Z Euro loop from PSU e-Wall suggests a brief opportunity for freezing/frozen NW of DFW Wednesday night, but otherwise cold and moisture never meet during the next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#831 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jan 14, 2008 10:33 am

Ptarmigan wrote:Going back to 1895, Houston should see some sort of snowfall every 3.6 years. Snowfall totaling over 1 inch should fall every 10.2 years. I think we are due for one soon. The last time we saw at least 1 inches and greater was in 1989, which has been 19 years.


In weather, there is no such thing as being "due" for anything. Mother Nature doesn't know the difference. It's the same as using the "return period" to (attempt to) predict if the ___ coast will get struck by a hurricane...or the opposite, taking Florida 2004 as an example: "4 hurricanes have never hit the coast in the same year, so since we've already had 3 hits, our season is over"...those kinds of statistics really mean nothing in the end...what matters is the synoptics & the pattern - the now, not what happened 1,2,5, or 10 years ago.
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#832 Postby lrak » Mon Jan 14, 2008 10:46 am

I think that history repeats, was the meaning of his thread. Your examples are history,and they will repeat sooner or later.
0 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#833 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Jan 14, 2008 11:33 am

jasons wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:Going back to 1895, Houston should see some sort of snowfall every 3.6 years. Snowfall totaling over 1 inch should fall every 10.2 years. I think we are due for one soon. The last time we saw at least 1 inches and greater was in 1989, which has been 19 years.


In weather, there is no such thing as being "due" for anything. Mother Nature doesn't know the difference. It's the same as using the "return period" to (attempt to) predict if the ___ coast will get struck by a hurricane...or the opposite, taking Florida 2004 as an example: "4 hurricanes have never hit the coast in the same year, so since we've already had 3 hits, our season is over"...those kinds of statistics really mean nothing in the end...what matters is the synoptics & the pattern - the now, not what happened 1,2,5, or 10 years ago.


I ate a pizza right before I got into a car accident. Therefore, pizza causes car accidents. Same reasoning.
0 likes   

richtrav
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:48 pm
Location: South Texas

#834 Postby richtrav » Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:43 pm

IF snowfall were random events this would be known as the gambler's fallacy, the notion that since something hasn't occurred in a long time that it will somehow occur more quickly (since we're "overdue"). But events like hurricanes and snow/cold are not uniformly random, the overall odds get tilted some when you're in a period of, say, higher hurricane activity or colder winters (not). The odds also get shifted around from season to season with events like El Nino. You're still playing the odds of course and it could still snow in Houston - think Corpus '04 - just be realistic and realize the cards have been stacked against you since the 1990s. Add that to the trend this year towards dry cold and I would most definitely not get my hopes up. The odds were probably better last year when the winter was wetter and cooler.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#835 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:04 pm

richtrav wrote:IF snowfall were random events this would be known as the gambler's fallacy, the notion that since something hasn't occurred in a long time that it will somehow occur more quickly (since we're "overdue"). But events like hurricanes and snow/cold are not uniformly random, the overall odds get tilted some when you're in a period of, say, higher hurricane activity or colder winters (not). The odds also get shifted around from season to season with events like El Nino. You're still playing the odds of course and it could still snow in Houston - think Corpus '04 - just be realistic and realize the cards have been stacked against you since the 1990s. Add that to the trend this year towards dry cold and I would most definitely not get my hopes up. The odds were probably better last year when the winter was wetter and cooler.



We had a couple of hours of freezing drizzle at my house last winter.
0 likes   

Johnny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: No Snow For You, Texas

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#836 Postby Johnny » Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:46 pm

It looks like we could have some big cold coming down. JB says that come game time in Green Bay this weekend, the temp could be hovering around 0 with a wind chill in the -40 range. I'll be watching that one!!
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#837 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:52 pm

DFW NWS now has a 40% chance of rain Wed night with a low of 30. Previous forecast was 30% chance of sleet/snow with a low of 28. I knew this would change as it got closer. Let's see how much it continues to change.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re:

#838 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 14, 2008 4:21 pm

gboudx wrote:DFW NWS now has a 40% chance of rain Wed night with a low of 30. Previous forecast was 30% chance of sleet/snow with a low of 28. I knew this would change as it got closer. Let's see how much it continues to change.


Wednesday Night: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%

I say BS, I want my snow! :froze:
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: TX winter weather thread: Colder pattern setting up

#839 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 14, 2008 4:24 pm

The Snow Nazi says "no snow for you DFW!" :lol:

A snippet from the DFW forecast discussion this afternoon out of Fort Worth NWS:

THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES ONLY A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SLEET MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NEAR COMANCHE...TO THE DFW METROPLEX...TO PARIS. MOST LIKELY ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MID
LEVEL ZONE WHERE SNOW AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION USUALLY DEVELOPS
WILL BE TOO DRY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFFSET IN TIMING
JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT REMOVING SNOW FROM THE FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Re:

#840 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 14, 2008 4:30 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Wednesday Night: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%

I say BS, I want my snow! :froze:


Yeah, that's for your area. Out here in Rockwall, it's:

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


So whatever sleet you see, before midnight of course, will become all rain as it moves east. :)

Maybe this is one of those winters we don't really see any frozen precip or have any problems with it? But February is still to come.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests