Dr. Jeff Masters: global 2007 season, was it unusual?

[Pedro Fernández]

He has written a very interesting article in his blog... His thoughts about the global 2007 season around the world, with remarkable conclusions at the end. Here is the link:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[RL3AO]

That is crazy that half of the cat 5s and the strongest storm was in the Atlantic.

[Squarethecircle]

I think, though, that Sidr was probably a category five. That would mean that both the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean had more category fives than the West Pacific, which would be preposterous had it not happened.

[KWT]

Its certainly interestingand also shows that when all is said and done the atlantic actually had a pretty normal season...bar of course the two cat-5 which is very rare even in recent times.

Wasn't the globes strongest systemin the atlantic in 2005 as well with Wilma or was there something stronger then that?

[Squarethecircle]

It was Wilma, by around like 30 hPa or something. No contest. Some of the other basins had an off year, I think. The WPac's strongest storm was only around 920! Interestingly enough, the three big category fives in 2005 were the three most intense of that year.

[Ptarmigan]

Three of the four Category 5 hurricanes made landfall as Category 5. 1977 was very quiet for every basin.

[Cyclone1]

Three of the four Category 5 hurricanes made landfall as Category 5. 1977 was very quiet for every basin.

77 was quiet, but the Atlantic kicked off the year with a Category 5. Granted... in September, but still. Abnormally slow world wide.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: It was Wilma, by around like 30 hPa or something. No contest. Some of the other basins had an off year, I think. The WPac's strongest storm was only around 920! Interestingly enough, the three big category fives in 2005 were the three most intense of that year.

Wilma was more like a typhoon in many ways. It formed from a monsoonal trough and had 892 millibars and 155 mph winds, which corresponds with the Dvorak Technique for the Northwest Pacific.

[Ptarmigan]

77 was quiet, but the Atlantic kicked off the year with a Category 5. Granted... in September, but still. Abnormally slow world wide.

Yeah, that was Anita, which was initially thought to be a Category 4. I always wondered why 1977 was quiet. I think it is because combination of coming off of a weak El Nino, monsoon activities, cooler Atlantic water, and strong Arctic Oscillation.

[Ptarmigan]

Here is a list of global tropical cyclone activity.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/glblhst.htm

Since 1970, the most active was 1974, while 1977 had just 66 storms.

[HURAKAN]

Comparison between the intensity of storms in the Atlantic and worldwide is difficult to do when you have a basin enjoying the work of Hurricane Hunters and the rest making estimates.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmmm, still people looking for Atlantic basin TCs there. Now I'll have to visit the NESDIS site to see if this guy is onto something, or smoking crack.

95. cchsweatherman 11:36 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
I know that 456, but I just like to have support for my data. Wind shear at this time continues to decrease throughout the Caribbean and over the system, but there is a narrow region of increasing shear between the system and the Caribbean. As 456 had made mention to eariler, there is now an apparent upper-ridge developing in the Caribbean. I must agree with 456 that there is not a closed circulation as of yet, but the circulation developing continues to become better defined and may become closed if it encounters some lower shear overnight. Convection is not all that impressive with only some isolated areas of moderate-to-heavy convection to the south. I do not expect development, if any, until it enters the Caribbean where it will be under the influence of the aforementioned upper level ridge. I state if any since there is some deep, abundant dry air encompassing nearly the entire Caribbean. It will have to contend with this dry air in order to see any development. The bottomline is that it just bares watching, although it remains highly unlikely anything will develop.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmmm, still people looking for Atlantic basin TCs there. Now I'll have to visit the NESDIS site to see if this guy is onto something, or smoking crack.

95. cchsweatherman 11:36 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
I know that 456, but I just like to have support for my data. Wind shear at this time continues to decrease throughout the Caribbean and over the system, but there is a narrow region of increasing shear between the system and the Caribbean. As 456 had made mention to eariler, there is now an apparent upper-ridge developing in the Caribbean. I must agree with 456 that there is not a closed circulation as of yet, but the circulation developing continues to become better defined and may become closed if it encounters some lower shear overnight. Convection is not all that impressive with only some isolated areas of moderate-to-heavy convection to the south. I do not expect development, if any, until it enters the Caribbean where it will be under the influence of the aforementioned upper level ridge. I state if any since there is some deep, abundant dry air encompassing nearly the entire Caribbean. It will have to contend with this dry air in order to see any development. The bottomline is that it just bares watching, although it remains highly unlikely anything will develop.

I'm assuming this area of storms around 55º


I'd think the 50 knots of shear would make that an unlikely candidate...

[Coredesat]

Hmmmm, still people looking for Atlantic basin TCs there. Now I'll have to visit the NESDIS site to see if this guy is onto something, or smoking crack.

95. cchsweatherman 11:36 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
I know that 456, but I just like to have support for my data. Wind shear at this time continues to decrease throughout the Caribbean and over the system, but there is a narrow region of increasing shear between the system and the Caribbean. As 456 had made mention to eariler, there is now an apparent upper-ridge developing in the Caribbean. I must agree with 456 that there is not a closed circulation as of yet, but the circulation developing continues to become better defined and may become closed if it encounters some lower shear overnight. Convection is not all that impressive with only some isolated areas of moderate-to-heavy convection to the south. I do not expect development, if any, until it enters the Caribbean where it will be under the influence of the aforementioned upper level ridge. I state if any since there is some deep, abundant dry air encompassing nearly the entire Caribbean. It will have to contend with this dry air in order to see any development. The bottomline is that it just bares watching, although it remains highly unlikely anything will develop.

I saw that comment and went to look at the satellite. I saw no significant convection, and there isn't any significant convection there now; it's an uninformed user misinterpreting a visible satellite image. Don't believe everything you read.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmmm, still people looking for Atlantic basin TCs there. Now I'll have to visit the NESDIS site to see if this guy is onto something, or smoking crack.

95. cchsweatherman 11:36 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
I know that 456, but I just like to have support for my data. Wind shear at this time continues to decrease throughout the Caribbean and over the system, but there is a narrow region of increasing shear between the system and the Caribbean. As 456 had made mention to eariler, there is now an apparent upper-ridge developing in the Caribbean. I must agree with 456 that there is not a closed circulation as of yet, but the circulation developing continues to become better defined and may become closed if it encounters some lower shear overnight. Convection is not all that impressive with only some isolated areas of moderate-to-heavy convection to the south. I do not expect development, if any, until it enters the Caribbean where it will be under the influence of the aforementioned upper level ridge. I state if any since there is some deep, abundant dry air encompassing nearly the entire Caribbean. It will have to contend with this dry air in order to see any development. The bottomline is that it just bares watching, although it remains highly unlikely anything will develop.

I saw that comment and went to look at the satellite. I saw no significant convection, and there isn't any significant convection there now; it's an uninformed user misinterpreting a visible satellite image. Don't believe everything you read.

Yeah, it took me about 20 seconds to decide he was a touch over eager.

[Squarethecircle]

Heh, it took me 40 seconds just to find what he was talking about!

Since when is a random jumble of weak convection interesting? Even in the Summer?

[HurricaneRobert]

Here is a list of global tropical cyclone activity.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/glblhst.htm

Since 1970, the most active was 1974, while 1977 had just 66 storms.

Right off the bat their number is wrong for the Atlantic last season. How hard is it to look that up?

[Squarethecircle]

They're also off by one on 2005.

[hcane27]

They have corrected the 2005 and 2006 Atlantic and added the southern hemisphere for 2006 .....

[Squarethecircle]

They have corrected the 2005 and 2006 Atlantic and added the southern hemisphere for 2006 .....

So they have...