Tropical weather outlooks changing times
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- hurricanetrack
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Tropical weather outlooks changing times
I do not know if this has been posted on here yet or not...but the famed tropical weather outlooks for both basins will change times beginning this year.
They will be issued at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z instead of what we have been used to for many years. I confirmed this with Dennis Feltgen at the NHC today and they will be issuing a PNS about it soon. So get ready, no more 11:30 TWOs for us! No more "Wonder what the 5:30 will say?". It's all about to change....
They will be issued at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z instead of what we have been used to for many years. I confirmed this with Dennis Feltgen at the NHC today and they will be issuing a PNS about it soon. So get ready, no more 11:30 TWOs for us! No more "Wonder what the 5:30 will say?". It's all about to change....
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
So its all about 3 hours later. Unless you're an optimist.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
I am never going to remember that.
Will that be the same for the advisories too, or just the outlooks?

Will that be the same for the advisories too, or just the outlooks?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
True enough about those "2 a.m. Two's", but, good for the media OCM's, since they'll no longer have to scramble (or wait by the printer) for that 11:30 a.m., 5:30 p.m. or 11:30 p.m. outlook, since they came just before or during their newscasts...
Oh, well - nothing here stays the same...
P.S. I'm not sure of the origins for those 5:30 and 11:30 outlooks - I recall it was that way in the 1970's, so, it's a product that's been around for a long time - perhaps one of the professional folks who have an NHC connection might know.
I'll guess and say that Dr. Robert Simpson (NHC Director in the late '60s and early '70s) might have been the one to initiate them - I'll also guess that perhaps it had something to do with those 12-hourly polar-orbiting satellite photographs...
Oh, well - nothing here stays the same...
P.S. I'm not sure of the origins for those 5:30 and 11:30 outlooks - I recall it was that way in the 1970's, so, it's a product that's been around for a long time - perhaps one of the professional folks who have an NHC connection might know.
I'll guess and say that Dr. Robert Simpson (NHC Director in the late '60s and early '70s) might have been the one to initiate them - I'll also guess that perhaps it had something to do with those 12-hourly polar-orbiting satellite photographs...
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- Professional-Met
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
cycloneye wrote:Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.
If there is a landfalling or rapidly strengthening storm, it is surprisingly busy here even at 2 am...I know that Dean's landfall was well-covered, as was Humberto's rapid intensification...
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
CrazyC83 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.
If there is a landfalling or rapidly strengthening storm, it is surprisingly busy here even at 2 am...I know that Dean's landfall was well-covered, as was Humberto's rapid intensification...
I've been on at 2am before, both Eastern and GMT, and it's been busy. I can't see this changing much, at least in terms of forum activity.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
cycloneye wrote:Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.
They are probably ripping it from me. Maybe I will sue them after they get the budget increase.



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- senorpepr
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Personally, I like the new times. Working in a meteorology world, the world 10:30pm EDT TWO thing was just weird. Practically everything in the met world runs on UTC, and 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z are standard times for many met products.
As for the advisories... this should be interesting having the suites offset 3 hours. To be frank, I never liked having the local times on the advisories... it just makes it confusing, especially when system cross time zones. With that said, I think the 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z works well for the media. It also gives a break to the forecasters--instead of having to issue several advisory suites plus a couple of TWOs, they can stagger their work.
Overall, I'm happy.
As for the advisories... this should be interesting having the suites offset 3 hours. To be frank, I never liked having the local times on the advisories... it just makes it confusing, especially when system cross time zones. With that said, I think the 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z works well for the media. It also gives a break to the forecasters--instead of having to issue several advisory suites plus a couple of TWOs, they can stagger their work.
Overall, I'm happy.
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- senorpepr
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.
But... for what it's worth... is the TWO really all that important anyway?
Usually there's very little value gained from the TWO. Either there is an advisory for the system or it's being monitored for development. Usually the only time something is worth it's mention in a TWO is when a system that is close to becoming a depression was not upgraded and recon's finding with the system.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: Re:
senorpepr wrote:HURAKAN wrote:I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.
But... for what it's worth... is the TWO really all that important anyway?
Usually there's very little value gained from the TWO. Either there is an advisory for the system or it's being monitored for development. Usually the only time something is worth it's mention in a TWO is when a system that is close to becoming a depression was not upgraded and recon's finding with the system.
When a disturbance is developing, we crave for the information in the TWO. It gives us an inside of what the NHC is thinking. The value of the TWO is not measured when a system is already developed, but before it develops.
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- senorpepr
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Re: Re:
HURAKAN wrote:senorpepr wrote:HURAKAN wrote:I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.
But... for what it's worth... is the TWO really all that important anyway?
Usually there's very little value gained from the TWO. Either there is an advisory for the system or it's being monitored for development. Usually the only time something is worth it's mention in a TWO is when a system that is close to becoming a depression was not upgraded and recon's finding with the system.
When a disturbance is developing, we crave for the information in the TWO. It gives us an inside of what the NHC is thinking. The value of the TWO is not measured when a system is already developed, but before it develops.
But even before a system develops, it really doesn't provide anything other than "possible development" or "a depression may form within the next day or two." Even at that point, the TWO doesn't provide anything beyond what a satellite image could tell you. As I said before, the only real worth behind the TWO is where it tells you a system is not upgraded due to recon's findings.
Furthermore, you mention the 10:30pm TWO... when does that version of the TWO provide anything new? 10:30pm, 2am... it's really going to be the same thing as the previous TWO--barring something exceptional.
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- GeneratorPower
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times
I disagree, Senorpepr. I think the value of the TWO for us amateurs is it tells us whether or not that blob we are watching is worth watching. You said that we could do just as well looking at a satellite picture. Not us amateurs. And all the EMA managers out there have very little meteorological background, and can't tell an upper level low from a depression. And people like that (me) is just who the TWO is for, not so much pro-mets.
So the TWO is for amateurs who need elaboration on the potential of BLOB A to form into something significant. It helps me tremendously.
So the TWO is for amateurs who need elaboration on the potential of BLOB A to form into something significant. It helps me tremendously.
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