Tropical weather outlooks changing times

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Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#1 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:00 pm

I do not know if this has been posted on here yet or not...but the famed tropical weather outlooks for both basins will change times beginning this year.

They will be issued at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z instead of what we have been used to for many years. I confirmed this with Dennis Feltgen at the NHC today and they will be issuing a PNS about it soon. So get ready, no more 11:30 TWOs for us! No more "Wonder what the 5:30 will say?". It's all about to change....
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#2 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:05 pm

So its all about 3 hours later. Unless you're an optimist.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#3 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:27 pm

I am never going to remember that. :(

Will that be the same for the advisories too, or just the outlooks?
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:40 pm

That's not nice!!!

We were so used to it!!!

So the TWO will be issued at 8 AM, 2 PM, 8 PM, and 2 AM. My guess that the 2 AM will be very unpopular!!!
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:49 pm

Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.
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#6 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:06 pm

It will be great for people who want to not have to catch up reading them. I don't like the feel of the times though.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#7 Postby Frank2 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:08 pm

True enough about those "2 a.m. Two's", but, good for the media OCM's, since they'll no longer have to scramble (or wait by the printer) for that 11:30 a.m., 5:30 p.m. or 11:30 p.m. outlook, since they came just before or during their newscasts...

Oh, well - nothing here stays the same...

P.S. I'm not sure of the origins for those 5:30 and 11:30 outlooks - I recall it was that way in the 1970's, so, it's a product that's been around for a long time - perhaps one of the professional folks who have an NHC connection might know.

I'll guess and say that Dr. Robert Simpson (NHC Director in the late '60s and early '70s) might have been the one to initiate them - I'll also guess that perhaps it had something to do with those 12-hourly polar-orbiting satellite photographs...
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:35 pm

The times are better IMO - since it creates a 3 hour window to get advisories started for newly-developing storms, as opposed to forcing a special advisory if there is miscommunication.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.


If there is a landfalling or rapidly strengthening storm, it is surprisingly busy here even at 2 am...I know that Dean's landfall was well-covered, as was Humberto's rapid intensification...
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#10 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:47 pm

I'm not so sure about these new times...

Meh, we'll adjust.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#11 Postby Cryomaniac » Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.


If there is a landfalling or rapidly strengthening storm, it is surprisingly busy here even at 2 am...I know that Dean's landfall was well-covered, as was Humberto's rapid intensification...


I've been on at 2am before, both Eastern and GMT, and it's been busy. I can't see this changing much, at least in terms of forum activity.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#12 Postby RL3AO » Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Uh! its going to be painful to stay until 2 AM.By the way,I heard that the TWO,S will be different this year in terms of having different colors to identify disturbances.Prepare RL3AO for your colorful graphics.


They are probably ripping it from me. Maybe I will sue them after they get the budget increase. :D :eek: :lol:
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:14 am

Personally, I like the new times. Working in a meteorology world, the world 10:30pm EDT TWO thing was just weird. Practically everything in the met world runs on UTC, and 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z are standard times for many met products.

As for the advisories... this should be interesting having the suites offset 3 hours. To be frank, I never liked having the local times on the advisories... it just makes it confusing, especially when system cross time zones. With that said, I think the 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z works well for the media. It also gives a break to the forecasters--instead of having to issue several advisory suites plus a couple of TWOs, they can stagger their work.

Overall, I'm happy.
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#14 Postby Aquawind » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:06 am

Good points senorpepr. I never was a fan of that 10:30pm update time and it seems like the on air mets always have to struggle to get the updated information and graphics for the late news.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:45 am

I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.
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Re:

#16 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:08 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.


But... for what it's worth... is the TWO really all that important anyway?

Usually there's very little value gained from the TWO. Either there is an advisory for the system or it's being monitored for development. Usually the only time something is worth it's mention in a TWO is when a system that is close to becoming a depression was not upgraded and recon's finding with the system.
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:15 pm

senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.


But... for what it's worth... is the TWO really all that important anyway?

Usually there's very little value gained from the TWO. Either there is an advisory for the system or it's being monitored for development. Usually the only time something is worth it's mention in a TWO is when a system that is close to becoming a depression was not upgraded and recon's finding with the system.


When a disturbance is developing, we crave for the information in the TWO. It gives us an inside of what the NHC is thinking. The value of the TWO is not measured when a system is already developed, but before it develops.
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:47 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I still find unsatisfactory having a TWO at 2 AM in the morning. You go to sleep with the 8 PM TWO and wake up for the 8 AM TWO, which makes the 2 AM unworthed for most of us. Even if you wake up at 6 AM, like myself, the 2 AM TWO is already very old to be important.


But... for what it's worth... is the TWO really all that important anyway?

Usually there's very little value gained from the TWO. Either there is an advisory for the system or it's being monitored for development. Usually the only time something is worth it's mention in a TWO is when a system that is close to becoming a depression was not upgraded and recon's finding with the system.


When a disturbance is developing, we crave for the information in the TWO. It gives us an inside of what the NHC is thinking. The value of the TWO is not measured when a system is already developed, but before it develops.


But even before a system develops, it really doesn't provide anything other than "possible development" or "a depression may form within the next day or two." Even at that point, the TWO doesn't provide anything beyond what a satellite image could tell you. As I said before, the only real worth behind the TWO is where it tells you a system is not upgraded due to recon's findings.

Furthermore, you mention the 10:30pm TWO... when does that version of the TWO provide anything new? 10:30pm, 2am... it's really going to be the same thing as the previous TWO--barring something exceptional.
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Re: Tropical weather outlooks changing times

#19 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:39 pm

I disagree, Senorpepr. I think the value of the TWO for us amateurs is it tells us whether or not that blob we are watching is worth watching. You said that we could do just as well looking at a satellite picture. Not us amateurs. And all the EMA managers out there have very little meteorological background, and can't tell an upper level low from a depression. And people like that (me) is just who the TWO is for, not so much pro-mets.

So the TWO is for amateurs who need elaboration on the potential of BLOB A to form into something significant. It helps me tremendously.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 16, 2008 1:24 am

:uarrow: That was exactly my point. I remember that every time an invest is declared in the Atlantic, one of the first thing to do is to look at the TWO, and we are always very anxious when it gets close to the time of the release of the TWO. For amateurs is very important.
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