Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[RL3AO]

Exact same tornado probabilities as the last watch. Same forecaster too.

Kinda strange.

[brunota2003]

Anddd...they have added the PDS label to it.

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch #179
Issued/Updated: Apr 09, 2008 at 2046 UTC
Expires: Apr 10, 2008 at 0400 UTC
Tornado Watch 179 Status Message has not been issued

[RL3AO]

They added PDS to it.

[CrazyC83]

Probably a case of rushing on things.

[RL3AO]

Do they have to reissue it, or can they just amend it?

[Bunkertor]

Abilene cam

http://www.ktxs.com/weather/livetowercam.html

[CrazyC83]

Do they have to reissue it, or can they just amend it?

I think they might have to reissue it as PDS Watch 180, but I am not sure. That was probably just a mistake by the SPC - knowing how busy they are with briefings and stuff, you can expect things like that to happen once in a while.

[CrazyC83]

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE PDS WORDING

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
LARGE PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CORSICANA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178...

DISCUSSION...VERY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
WATCH. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IN ADDITION
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NWRN TX AND WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NCENTRAL TX.
WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG COUPLED WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...ANY SUPERCELL WILL HAVE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Get used to those PDS words, since we will likely see several of those tomorrow...

[Ed Mahmoud]

New warning includes ABI...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX..WRN LA...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092101Z - 092200Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OK...IS LIFTING TO THE NE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX
AND OK AT 2045 UTC. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN AR HAS BEGUN
TO SLOWLY RETREAT NWD. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
/500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ EXISTS. CONGESTED APPEARANCE OF CU FIELD
ALONG WITH 18Z SHV RAOB INDICATED ONLY WEAK CAPPING LIKELY EXISTS
ACRS THE AREAS. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS STORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE NWD. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS /50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR/...ANTICIPATING MORE
OF A MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE ATTM...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUST AND/OR LARGE HAIL. AS THE SUBTLE
UPPER WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM REGION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.

..SMITH.. 04/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

31909418 32539445 32879442 33269436 33479415 33539392
33549366 33369327 32979293 32429263 31819224 31449215
31179213 31009229 30929262 30979288 31199339 31469380

[CrazyC83]

2030 4 NW TYE TAYLOR TX 3249 9992 REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON I-20 WEST OF TYE (SJT)
2035 2 NE TYE TAYLOR TX 3247 9985 REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF TYE...ABOUT 3/4 MI NORTH OF I-20. (SJT)

[brunota2003]

Is that a mesocyclone I see on the webcam right now? Like, the back edge/tail region of it?

EDIT: It just updated. Will upload a saved image of it in a minute.

[Bunkertor]

Is that a mesocyclone I see on the webcam right now? Like, the back edge/tail region of it?

EDIT: It just updated. Will upload a saved image of it in a minute.

That must be a second one. The shelfcloud has already moved through

[brunota2003]

Is that a mesocyclone I see on the webcam right now? Like, the back edge/tail region of it?

EDIT: It just updated. Will upload a saved image of it in a minute.

That must be a second one. The shelfcloud has already moved through

I did not get a really good look at it, and it's distance is pretty far. But it definitely was interesting.

First pic is a non-edited one:


Second one is highlighting my area of question/interest:


It might be nothing out of the ordinary or just a Shelf cloud, I do not have any actual experience out chasing (too many trees here and am too young to really venture out on my own). More of a point spotter.

[RL3AO]

The Shackleford Co. cell looks good. Its going to pass a few miles north of the radar site.

[RL3AO]

Starting to hook.

[Bunkertor]

Is that a mesocyclone I see on the webcam right now? Like, the back edge/tail region of it?

EDIT: It just updated. Will upload a saved image of it in a minute.

That must be a second one. The shelfcloud has already moved through

I did not get a really good look at it, and it's distance is pretty far. But it definitely was interesting.

First pic is a non-edited one:
del

Second one is highlighting my area of question/interest:
del

It might be nothing out of the ordinary or just a Shelf cloud, I do not have any actual experience out chasing (too many trees here and am too young to really venture out on my own). More of a point spotter.

Maybe. It looks like a meso, yes.

[CrazyC83]

The warm front is getting active again; warnings in Oklahoma

[6SpeedTA95]

Tulsa weather is showing the MDT shifting over the Tulsa metro late tonight.